Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
“Making America pray for better presidential candidates.”
– Michael Ramirez. Commentary at...
https://michaelpramirez.com/index.html
Trump, selling bibles! Are you kidding me?
EASTMAN’S LAW LICENSE SUSPENSION SUGGESTS PERIL FOR TRUMP
(Florida Phoenix)
“So far, Donald Trump and his fellow defendants in the
Fulton County election-racketeering case have managed to turn the spotlight
away from their own alleged misdeeds to those of District Attorney Fani Willis.
(And yes, Willis herself has helped make that possible.)
However, events last week in California involving John
Eastman, a Trump lawyer, co-defendant and central figure in the alleged
conspiracy, suggest that this reprieve may be temporary.
After a lengthy trial, a state bar judge in California
found that Eastman “conspired with President Trump to obstruct a lawful
function of the government of the United States; specifically, by conspiring to
disrupt the electoral count on January 6, 2021…for purposes that are unlawful,
criminal, or fraudulent....”
...it has been remarkable to see how many people of
considerable credentials have thrown away their careers, reputations and
perhaps even their freedom on behalf of a man as flawed as Trump.” – Jay
Bookman, columnist at the Georgia Recorder. Commentary at...
https://floridaphoenix.com/2024/04/05/bookman-eastmans-law-license-suspension-suggests-peril-for-trump-allies-in-georgia-rico-case/
My cmt: This piece describes Eastman’s lies to the
court. Lawyers are officers of the court
and lying to the court can cost a lawyer his law license.
“God is sending America strong signs to tell us to
repent. Earthquakes and eclipses and many more things to come. I pray that our
country listens.” - Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA)
“Someone is sending us a message, communists states are
getting earthquakes.” – Rudy Giuliani.
“Green Party member U.S. Senate candidate for New Jersey
Christina Amira Khalil went viral after posting a theory to
social media that the earthquake that rocked New York and New Jersey on Friday
was caused by climate change.” From...
U.S.
Senate candidate goes viral for blaming NY earthquake on climate change,
deletes post (msn.com)
My cmt: You can’t make this stuff up.
"[Pro-Palestinians are] absolutely idiots, because
they don't know what they are supporting. They are supporting a monster that
has been hijacking an entire society and endangering the entire Middle East, pushing the world towards a global war…
What's happening is insanity. Those pro-Palestine people need to go to a mental
asylum." - Mosab Hassan Yousef, a Palestinian
ex-militant who defected to Israel in 1997, son of Hamas
co-founder Sheikh Hassan Yousef.
DEATH TO AMERICA? (Fox News)
“Protesters in Dearborn, Michigan, shouted "Death to America!"
and "Death to Israel!" during an International Al-Quds Day rally held
in the town....[The U.S. is] "one of the rottenest countries that has ever
existed on this Earth. It’s not just Genocide Joe that has to go...It is the
entire system that has to go. Any system that would allow such atrocities and
such devilry to happen, and would support it – such a system does not deserve
to exist on God’s Earth." - Tarek Bazzi, a Michigan-based activist
associated with the Hadi institute. Story at...
https://www.foxnews.com/us/death-america-death-israel-chants-pour-muslim-protesters-michigan-last-day-ramadan
My cmt: Did Bazzi commit a seditious criminal act?
SEDITION, FREE SPEECH (Spillane & Mrowka, Attys at
Law)
Sedition: “Sedition is...a federal crime. While the crime
of treason requires action, sedition is any conspiracy to overthrow, put down
or to destroy by force the government of the United States. This includes
preventing, hindering or delaying the execution of any law of the United States
or seizing, taking or possessing any property of the United States. The current
federal statute criminalizing sedition was originally enacted in 1940 and is
codified at 18 U.S.C. § 2385.”
Free Speech vs Sedition:
The [Supreme] Court used a two-pronged test to evaluate speech acts: (1)
speech can be prohibited if it is "directed at inciting or producing
imminent lawless action" and (2) it is "likely to incite or produce
such action." From...
https://www.smattorney.com/free-speech-v-sedition
My cmt: The key word here is “imminent
lawless action.” Apparently, one can scream, “Death to America” as long as
there is no direction to bring about lawless action.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 was little changed at 5202.
-VIX slipped about 5% to 15.19.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.422%. (We
can’t like the increase in bond yields.)
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
QLD- Sold 4/8/2024
UWM – Sold 4/8/2024.
INTC – Sold 4/8/2024.
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022
lows). I don’t want to pay taxes on this gain, so I am holding this position.
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market
Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position
in my tax-deferred, retirement account betting on Smaller Caps.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Monday there are 15 bear-signs and 7-Bull. It was
16 Bear and 6 Bull Thursday, (they changed on late day-data) so indicators improved
slightly, but the 10-dMA of the indicators continued to fall.
I sold INTEL today and leveraged positions in QLD and
UWM. Intel needed to go. I took a loss, since I didn’t follow my own rules –
dumb. I took profits in QLD and UWM, because the 10-dMA of indicators looked
concerning - it’s still falling. As noted earlier, I am not really very bearish;
just cautious. (I wanted to post my moves earlier, but the eclipse got in the
way.)
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator
remained HOLD: PRICE is positive; SENTIMENT, VOLUME & VIX are neutral.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It
can signal BUY at a top.)
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21
October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal,
I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September
(based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market
follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and
increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the
final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market
internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions
before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown”
of indicators.)
BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish longer-term, but Neutral for now. I expect
that any correction (if the S&P 500 did have one) would be less than 10%,
but I am not predicting a correction today.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking
follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals
is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not
be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge
from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks, so this is a fully-invested position.
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a
lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October.
