“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
TRUMP’S IMMUNITY ARGUMENTS (AJC)
“The Supreme Court Thursday will hear arguments on whether Donald Trump is immune from prosecution for actions he took while president, and its decision could sink or delay some of the criminal cases against him, including Georgia’s [election interference case] ... ‘This may, indeed, be the most important Supreme Court case in the history of our country,’ said Donald Ayer, a Georgetown University law professor and former deputy attorney general under George H.W. Bush. ‘The rule of law is being tested today as it never has been before...’ A U.S. District Court judge in Washington had already rejected Trump’s claim of “absolute immunity.” In February, the appeals court upheld that decision. Now Trump will make his case to the Supreme Court.” Story at...
https://www.ajc.com/politics/trumps-immunity-argument-could-scuttle-or-delay-georgia-case/ET75OU2TMNE7HIPUJGH3DTTUQQ/
DURABLE GOODS (fxstreet)
“Durable Goods Orders in the US rose 2.6%..."Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.2%," the US Census Bureau said in the press release.” From...
https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-durable-goods-orders-rise-26-in-march-to-2834-billion-202404241235
CRUDE INVENTORIES (EIA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 6.4 million barrels from the previous week. At 453.6 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 3% below the five year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 was little changed at 5072.
-VIX rose about 2% to 15.97.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.646%.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
QLD- Sold 4/8/2024
UWM – Sold 4/8/2024.
INTC – Sold 4/8/2024.
XLE – Added 4/24/2024
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows). I don’t want to pay taxes on this gain, so I am holding this position.
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market
Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position
in my tax-deferred, retirement account betting on Smaller Caps. (This position
captures smaller cap and micro-cap stocks that are not included in the Dow
Jones US Total Stock Market Index. It is not a true small cap index. It is more like everything except the S&P
500.)
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, the 50-indicator spread (Bulls minus Bears) remains more to the Bear side, but it improved again. The Summary is currently 12 Bear-signs and 8-Bull (the rest are neutral). It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of those are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.
As usually happens, there are some cross-currents in the indicators. Consumer Staples outpaced the S&P 500 by a lot today. Utilities are outpacing the S&P 500 in momentum in my system and that’s a longer-term analysis and that is a very bearish sign. Both suggest investors are buying safety.
On the other hand, the 10-dMA of the spread of 50
Indicators (Bull minus Bear) finally turned up. As the chart shows, in recent
history, the 10-day spread (purple line) has turned up shortly after a bottom,
so the indicators are suggesting that markets have made a bottom. If it is a correct
signal this time, it is turning up 3 days after the bottom. Given the worrisome
flight to safety, the concern is that the signal may not be correct.
Despite those concerns, today, I added XLE (Energy Sector
ETF).
Based on the overall indicators, my guess is that the
pullback is over. As I write this, S&P
500 futures are down 0.6% and Nas futures are down more than 1%, so the options
players think that I am wrong. It wouldn’t be the first time.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator
remained HOLD: VOLUME, VIX, PRICE & SENTIMENT are neutral.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21
October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal,
I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September
(based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market
follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and
increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the
final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market
internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions
before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown”
of indicators.)
BOTTOM LINE
It still seems like this pullback is over or at least winding down.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS
(NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks, so this is a fully-invested position.
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a
lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October.
“The Supreme Court Thursday will hear arguments on whether Donald Trump is immune from prosecution for actions he took while president, and its decision could sink or delay some of the criminal cases against him, including Georgia’s [election interference case] ... ‘This may, indeed, be the most important Supreme Court case in the history of our country,’ said Donald Ayer, a Georgetown University law professor and former deputy attorney general under George H.W. Bush. ‘The rule of law is being tested today as it never has been before...’ A U.S. District Court judge in Washington had already rejected Trump’s claim of “absolute immunity.” In February, the appeals court upheld that decision. Now Trump will make his case to the Supreme Court.” Story at...
https://www.ajc.com/politics/trumps-immunity-argument-could-scuttle-or-delay-georgia-case/ET75OU2TMNE7HIPUJGH3DTTUQQ/
“Durable Goods Orders in the US rose 2.6%..."Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.2%," the US Census Bureau said in the press release.” From...
https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-durable-goods-orders-rise-26-in-march-to-2834-billion-202404241235
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 6.4 million barrels from the previous week. At 453.6 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 3% below the five year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
-Wednesday the S&P 500 was little changed at 5072.
-VIX rose about 2% to 15.97.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.646%.
QLD- Sold 4/8/2024
UWM – Sold 4/8/2024.
INTC – Sold 4/8/2024.
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows). I don’t want to pay taxes on this gain, so I am holding this position.
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
Today, the 50-indicator spread (Bulls minus Bears) remains more to the Bear side, but it improved again. The Summary is currently 12 Bear-signs and 8-Bull (the rest are neutral). It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of those are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.
As usually happens, there are some cross-currents in the indicators. Consumer Staples outpaced the S&P 500 by a lot today. Utilities are outpacing the S&P 500 in momentum in my system and that’s a longer-term analysis and that is a very bearish sign. Both suggest investors are buying safety.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)
It still seems like this pullback is over or at least winding down.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
