PCE ... GDP ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
HYPOCRISY IN WASHINGTON (NY Post via msn.com)
“Hypocrisy is Washington, DC’s lifeblood, so it was a nice change when DC Judge Ana Reyes [Biden appointed Judge] lambasted the Justice Department for instructing two lawyers in its Tax Division to disregard a congressional subpoena in the Hunter Biden investigation, all while it has been zealously prosecuting Trump officials for the very same offense... “There’s a person in jail right now because you all brought a criminal lawsuit against him because he did not appear for a House subpoena,” Reyes said, referring to Navarro [a former Trump trade adviser]. “And now you guys are flouting those subpoenas... I think it’s quite rich you guys pursue criminal investigations and put people in jail for not showing up.” Story at...
DC judge points out pervasive hypocrisy hell that’s permeating every corner of the federal government (msn.com)
My cmt: Hypocrisy in Washington? That could never happen.
“You will never find a more wretched hive of scum and villainy.” – Obi-Wan visits Washington DC.
 
BIGGEST ENERGY BLUNDER EVER (State of the Union via msn.com)
“Energy experts have raised concerns about electric vehicles becoming widely adopted in the U.S. due to issues like cost and affordability, range limitations, lack of charging infrastructure, reliability questions, and impacts to the electric grid and energy costs. While government policies heavily subsidize EVs, critics argue this amounts to a regressive wealth transfer, with lower/middle income Americans shouldering the higher costs...
...’We calculated that if you add on the socialized infrastructure costs, and then in particular add on California’s zero emission vehicle mandate, which adds cost to all of us because the automakers have to pay to produce more EVs in California, and they spread that cost to the whole country, the federal fuel economy regulations alone are subsidizing each EV by about $20,000. Add all this together, and each EV is getting almost $50,000 in subsidies.’” Story at...
EV expert warns about ‘one of the biggest energy policy blunders we’ve ever made’ (msn.com)
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that."- George Carlin
 
“The Environmental Protection Agency’s own climate model predicts that the proposed emissions standards for light, medium and heavy vehicles would reduce global temperatures in 2100 by 0.02-degrees Celsius.” - Benjamin Zycher, American Enterprise Institute. From WSJ at...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/electric-vehicles-ev-wont-save-the-climate-carbon-eda2089e
My cmt: Isn’t that weird? Auto emissions contribute a negligible amount to Climate change, but the Biden administration wants to outlaw ICE (Internal Combustion Engines) by 2035. It reminds me that Democrats canceled the Keystone Pipeline. As a result, oil must be carried by train to US refineries, a more costly and environmentally risky proposition – but it “sounds” better and plays to the environmental extremists.
 
“I suspect the initial rally may pause in here and some pruning could be in the cards. While it’s not my preferred scenario, I guess it’s possible that stocks bottomed already, but I still think the absolute low lies ahead next month, even if it’s just at marginally lower levels.” – Paul Schatz, President Heritagae Capital.
 
GDP / CORE PCE (Yahoo Finance)
“The US economy grew at its slowest pace in nearly two years last quarter as inflation topped Wall Street estimates. The Bureau of Economic Analysis's advance estimate of first quarter US gross domestic product (GDP) showed the economy grew at an annualized pace of 1.6%...Meanwhile, the ‘core’ Personal Consumption Expenditures index, which excludes the volatile food and energy categories, grew by 3.7% in the first quarter, above estimates for 3.4%, and significantly higher than 2% gain seen in the prior quarter... "The deceleration in GDP growth will not worry the Fed as the details are better than the headline would suggest," Oxford economics chief US economist Ryan Sweet said.” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gdp-us-economy-grows-at-16-annual-pace-in-first-quarter-falling-short-of-estimates-while-inflation-increases-123328820.html
My cmt: Markets are worried about inflation.
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (Yahoo Finance)
“The Labor Department reported Thursday that unemployment claims for the week ending April 20 fell by 5,000 to 207,000 from 212,000 the previous week. That's the fewest since mid-February.” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-applications-jobless-claims-fall-124135611.html
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 declined about 0.5% to 5048.
-VIX declined about 4% to 15.37. (The Options Players aren’t worried.)
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.704%.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
QLD- Sold 4/8/2024
UWM – Sold 4/8/2024.
INTC – Sold 4/8/2024.
 
XLE – Added 4/24/2024
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows). I don’t want to pay taxes on this gain, so I am holding this position.
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
 
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position in my tax-deferred, retirement account betting on Smaller Caps. (This position captures smaller cap and micro-cap stocks that are not included in the Dow Jones US Total Stock Market Index. It is not a true small cap index.  It is more like everything except the S&P 500.)
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
The Bull/Bear Spread (Bulls minus Bears) had been improving. Today, the 50-indicator spread moved more to the Bear side. The Summary is currently 15 Bear-signs and 6-Bull. (The rest are neutral. It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of those are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 

TODAY’S COMMENT:

The chart is bullish since it was up all day.  Let’s see if the Index can follow thru on Friday. I said yesterday, “my guess is that the pullback is over” based on indicators. Given today’s reversal in indicators it looks like I was too early? Maybe, but I’ll declare victory if the S&P 500 doesn’t make a new low. Today’s close was about 1% above the recent low this past Friday. The Index could drop and retest that low of 4967, but that is not something I can predict. It still looks like the pullback is over. A big, one-day pullback of greater than 1% might be the flush out signal we need to feel more confident. The bad PCE number could allow the serpents to creep into the porridge.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained HOLD: VOLUME is bearish; VIX, PRICE & SENTIMENT are neutral.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)
 
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
 
BOTTOM LINE
It still seems like this pullback is over or at least winding down.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 
 

...My current invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks, so this is a fully-invested position.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October.