Factory Orders ... Job Openings ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...
I MAY NOT HAVE TIME TO POST THE BLOG ON WEDNESDAY. We’ll
see...
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
FACTORY ORDERS (Yahoo.com)
“New orders for U.S.-manufactured goods rebounded more
than expected in February, boosted by demand for machinery and commercial
aircraft as manufacturing regains its footing. Factory orders increased 1.4%...”
Story at...
https://www.yahoo.com/news/us-factory-orders-increase-solidly-144431289.html
JOLTS JOB OPENINGS (Advisor Perspectives)
“The latest job openings and labor turnover summary
(JOLTS) report showed that job openings were little changed in February.
Vacancies inched up to 8.756 million from January's downwardly revised level of
8.748 million.” Commentary at...
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/04/02/job-openings-jolts-february-2024?topic=covid-19-coronavirus-coverage
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.7% to 5206.
-VIX rose about 7% to 14.61.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.353%. (Markets
don’t like rising rates)
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
QLD- Added 2/20/2024
UWM – Added 1/22/2024.
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022
lows).
INTC – Added 12/6/2023.
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market
Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position
in my retirement account betting on Smaller Caps.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Only 9% of issiues on the
NYSE were up Tuesday. That can sometimes
signal a reversal bottom that leads to higher prices. Price-Volume on the
S&P 500 was also very close to Statistically-Significant. Regular readers
know that Statistically-Significant, down-days are followed by an up-day
about 60% of the time. Bottoms usually occur on Stat-sig days, so we can be
hopeful that the weakness is finishing.
Unfortunately, stat-sig days occur on many days that are not bottoms.
The S&P 500 closed at,
or slightly below its lower trend line depending on the scales used to draw the
chart. If that happens again Wednesday,
it suggests weakness will continue.
I am too busy to make any
changes to the portfolio, and I am not sure I would, even if I had time. Breadth
looks good so I don’t expect that a correction, even if one should occur, will
be more than 10% from recent highs. There is nothing to suggest that a big
downturn is coming soon.
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Indicators moved more sharply to the bull side - .Today
there are 11 bear-signs and 10-Bull - a
neutral indication.
The above indication is ok. I don’t expect to see a
pullback until both Bollinger Bands and RSI are overbought. Even then, any
pullback that does occur is likely to be relatively small, <10%.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator declined
to HOLD: PRICE is positive; SENTIMENT, VOLUME & VIX are neutral.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It
can signal BUY at a top.)
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21
October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal,
I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September
(based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market
follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and
increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the
final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals
signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high
of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of
indicators.)
BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish longer-term, but Neutral for now. We’ll have
to see what the markets do next.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking
follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
I skipped my rules on Intel
and it has been a disappointment. Serves me right! Now, Salesforce (CRM) has fallen out of the
top 3. It is an AI play so it is not clear that selling it is the best move.
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting
continuation of bullish market action.
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a
lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October.
