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“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
NEW HOME SALES / PERMITS (CNN)
“New home sales, which make up about 10% of the market, jumped 8.8% last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 693,000... Meanwhile, building permits for future construction tumbled 3.7% in March to a five-month low.” Story at...
https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/23/economy/new-home-sales-march/index.html
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 1.2% to 5071.
-VIX fell about 7% to 16.94.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.607%.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
QLD- Sold 4/8/2024
UWM – Sold 4/8/2024.
INTC – Sold 4/8/2024.
 
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows). I don’t want to pay taxes on this gain, so I am holding this position.
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
 
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position in my tax-deferred, retirement account betting on Smaller Caps. (This position captures smaller cap and micro-cap stocks that are not included in the Dow Jones US Total Stock Market Index.)
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, the 50-indicator spread (Bulls minus Bears) remains more to the Bear side, but Bear-signals decreased by 2 and Bull-signals increased by 2. The Summary is currently 14 Bear-signs and 8-Bull (the rest are neutral).
 

TODAY’S COMMENT:
The 10-dMA of indicator spread (Bull minus Bear) declined again today so we are not getting a buy-signal there.  The daily numbers may be giving a better clue.  The spread today was -6; it was -13 just four trading days ago. 10-day averages tend to lag; the daily numbers are suggesting “Buy” so aggressive investors may want to buy-the-dip now.
 
My Money Trend indicator can be a pretty good indicator at turning point; it is bullish. We saw a couple of days when both Bollinger Bands and RSI were oversold. We also note that 80% of volume was up-volume today. That’s good, but by itself this is not an actionable signal.  If we see another 80% up-volume day Wednesday, I would consider it a bullish sign worthy of buying.
 
All in all, I suspect the pullback has made a bottom and I’ll probably add a stock trading-position tomorrow, but small retreats (less than 10%) give small signals. If we see the 10-dMA of the 50 Indicator Spread turn higher then I think this pullback will be over.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained HOLD: VIX, PRICE & SENTIMENT are neutral; VOLUME is bearish.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)
 
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
 
BOTTOM LINE
It still seems like this pullback is winding down and I plan to add a trading position tomorrow (most likely one of the higher momentum ETFs). I'll add more when I see the indicators improve.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 
 

...My current invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks, so this is a fully-invested position.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October.