PPI ... Jobless Claims ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“She [Marjorie Taylor Green] was always focused on her social media account. And ‘Moscow Marjorie’ is focused now on this Ukraine issue and getting her talking points from the Kremlin and making sure she is popular and she is getting a lot of coverage.” – Ken Buck, former Republican Congressman.
My cmt: Green is now focused on stopping support for Ukraine.
 
“That the world demands explanations and apologies from Israel for civilian deaths reflects a tacit understanding that Israel is nothing like Russia and shares our concern about the deaths of civilians. The accusation of genocide against Israel is as absurd as demanding an explanation from Russia of civilian deaths. For the record, every civilian death in Gaza is a war crime by Hamas, which hides in tunnels under Gazan cities and uses the civilians as shields. The war would end tomorrow if Hamas surrendered and returned its hostages. That so many ignore this and accuse Israel of genocide leads me to despair over the morality of our planet.” - Ari Weitzner, WSJ Letter to the Editor.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/israel-gaza-civilians-hamas-war-f7ef9c31?mod=letterstoeditor_more_article_pos16
 
BIDEN FOLLOWING CALIFORNIA (NY Post via msn.com)
“The Labor Department just imposed 300 pages of new regulations to reclassify many individual contractors as payroll employees.
CNBC claims this could help freelancers “recover lost wages.” That’s just nonsense. The new rules will make it harder for some freelancers to support a family.... Herstand [a musician] was dismayed to learn that when he wants other musicians to join him, he could no longer just write them a check. “I have to put that drummer on payroll, W-2 him, get workers’ comp insurance, unemployment insurance, payroll taxes!”... President Biden wants to go further by getting Congress to pass a union-backed bill called the PRO Act. It would reclassify workers the same way California did, but without any exemptions!” Story at...
Biden wants to follow foolish California and ban freelancing — putting millions out of work (msn.com)
“You will never find a more wretched hive of scum and villainy.” – Obi-Wan visits Washington, DC.
 
PPI (CNBC)
“The producer price index rose 0.2% for the month, less than the 0.3% estimate from the Dow Jones consensus... on a 12-month basis, the PPI climbed 2.1%, the biggest gain since April 2023... Excluding food and energy, the core PPI also rose 0.2%, meeting expectations.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/11/ppi-inflation-report-march-2024-wholesale-prices-rose-0point2percent-in-march.html
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (ABC News)
“Fewer Americans applied for jobless benefits last week...The Labor Department reported Thursday that filings for unemployment claims for the week ending April 6 fell by 11,000 to 211,000 from the previous week’s 222,000" Story at...
https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/fewer-americans-file-jobless-claims-labor-market-continues-109131381
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 0.7% to 5199.
-VIX fell about 6% to 14.91.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.587%.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
QLD- Sold 4/8/2024
UWM – Sold 4/8/2024.
INTC – Sold 4/8/2024.
 
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows). I don’t want to pay taxes on this gain, so I am holding this position.
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position in my tax-deferred, retirement account betting on Smaller Caps. (This position captures smaller cap and micro-cap stocks that are not included in the Dow Jones US Total Stock Market Index .)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
PPI was better than expected, but not by a lot. Futures were down before the open, but improved after the PPI news was released. Indicators remained to the bear side
 
Short-term breadth remained bearish. Longer-term breadth measures are still bullish so no need to panic yet.
 

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, there are 12 bear-signs and 9-Bull. Indicators improved some, but the 10-dMA of the indicators continued to fall. The Nifty 50 are still leaning bearish and the S&P 500 remains below its lower trendline so the Index is not in the clear yet.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained HOLD: PRICE, SENTIMENT, VOLUME & VIX are neutral.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)
 
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish longer-term, but Neutral for now. 
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals declined to SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 
 

...My current invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks, so this is a fully-invested position.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October.