ADP Employment ... Crude Inventories ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
ADP EMPLOYMENT CHANGE (CNBC)
“Private sector job growth expanded in March at its fastest pace since July 2023, indicating continuing buoyance in the U.S. labor market, payrolls processing firm ADP reported Wednesday. Companies added 184,000 workers on the month...” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/03/private-payrolls-increased-by-184000-in-march-better-than-expected-adp-says.html
 
EIA CRUDE INVENTORIES (EIS)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 3.2 million barrels from the previous week. At 451.4 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 2% below the five year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.1% to 5211.
-VIX slipped about 2% to 14.33.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 4.345%.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
QLD- Added 2/20/2024
UWM – Added 1/22/2024.
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows).
 
INTC – Added 12/6/2023.
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position in my retirement account betting on Smaller Caps.
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
 

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Indicators moved slightly to the bull side - .Today there are 9 bear-signs and 12-Bull -  call it a neutral indication. Let’s see if tomorrow will bring further improvement.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained HOLD: PRICE is positive; SENTIMENT, VOLUME & VIX are neutral.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)
 
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish longer-term, but Neutral for now. We’ll have to see what the markets do next.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
I skipped my rules on Intel and it has been a disappointment. Now Intel reported disappointing earnings on its foundry business.  That’s the business they are building to manufacture chips for other customers.  Intel had never previously reported earnings for this separate unit.
 
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 

...My current invested position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting continuation of bullish market action.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October.