Housing Starts ... Industrial Production ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 

UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT

FOR THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA

UNITED STATES OF AMERICA v. Case No. 1:21-cr-91-RCL-3

TAYLOR JAMES JOHNATAKIS, Defendant.

NOTES FOR SENTENCING
“Today, the Court sentenced Taylor James Johnatakis. The Court ordered that Mr. Johnatakis be committed to the custody of the Bureau of Prisons for a term of 87 months. The following are the notes that the Court used when delivering portions of its oral sentencing... what the jury found Mr. Johnatakis to have done on January 6 was neither First Amendment-protected activity nor civil disobedience. As the Court has said before, “the First Amendment does not give anyone the right to enter a restricted area or to engage in riotous activity in the Capitol.” See United States v. Little (Little Notes for Resentencing), No. 1:21-cr-315 (RCL), 2024 WL 386718 (D.D.C. Jan. 25, 2024). It obviously does not give anyone the right to assault the police. Nor was the January 6 riot an act of civil disobedience, because it was violent, not peaceful; opportunistic, not principled; coercive, not persuasive; and selfish, not patriotic.
The portrayal of Mr. Johnatakis as either a peaceful protestor or someone simply swept up by the crowd does not match the reality established at trial.” – Judge Royce Lamberth, excerpted from the Notes for Sentencing of Taylor James Johnatakis, January 6^th riot-leader. For some interesting reading, see the full Notes for Sentencing at...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/documents/1923dd68-27cc-4b1f-90d2-0e6e0f183008.pdf
 
HOUSING STARTS / PERMITS (Reuters)
“U.S. single-family homebuilding tumbled in March... The report from the Commerce Department on Tuesday also showed permits for future construction of single-family houses fell to a five-month low... Single-family housing starts, which account for the bulk of homebuilding, dropped 12.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.022 million units last month...” Story at...
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-single-family-housing-starts-plunge-march-2024-04-16/
 
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (FXstreet)
“Industrial Production in the US grew 0.4% on a monthly basis in March, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) reported on Tuesday.” Story at... 
https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-industrial-production-rises-04-in-march-as-expected-202404161324
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 fell about 0.2% to 5051.
-VIX declined about 4% to 18.4.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.669%.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
QLD- Sold 4/8/2024
UWM – Sold 4/8/2024.
INTC – Sold 4/8/2024.
 
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows). I don’t want to pay taxes on this gain, so I am holding this position.
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
Salesforce was down over 7% Monday. News follows: “Salesforce (CRM) is reportedly in advanced talks to acquire data management software company Informatica (INFA), according to a Wall Street Journal report. The potential acquisition would allow Salesforce to boost its data integration and management capabilities by tapping into Informatica's product suite.” – Yahoo Finance.
 
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position in my tax-deferred, retirement account betting on Smaller Caps. (This position captures smaller cap and micro-cap stocks that are not included in the Dow Jones US Total Stock Market Index .)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
We didn’t learn much today.  There wasn’t much change in price for the S&P 500; the Index remains about 1% below its 50-dMA. Indicators were little changed. Breadth indicators remain in relatively good condition for the most part, so no need to panic.
 
There are now 18 bear-signs and 6-Bull. There are some bottoming signs. Bollinger Bands remain oversold, but RSI remains in neutral territory.
 
 

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, there are 18 bear-signs and 6-Bull.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained SELL: PRICE & SENTIMENT are neutral; VIX & VOLUME are bearish.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)
 
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish longer-term, but still cautiously Neutral for now. I took profit in some positions last week. I may trim more, but that will depend on the indicators – now little changed from last week. The S&P 500 did close below its 50-dMA today (the 2^nd consecutive close) and that’s a concern, but the Index is only 3.9% below its all-time, record close. While declines aren’t fun, they are part of investing and so far, this is pretty normal stuff.
 
My guess is that the markets will retreat a little farther until we see some bottom indications.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 
 

...My current invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks, so this is a fully-invested position.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October.