Payroll Report ... Unemployment Rate ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
CLIMATE ALARMIST’S BAD SCIENCE (WSJ)
“I debunked research by the Federal Reserve and top academic economists on the economics of climate change. An author of a paper I debunked then said that three professors from Stanford and Berkeley had done a much better analysis of temperature and growth in an article they published in Nature. I took up the challenge and scrutinized their article. My critique appears in the latest issue of Econ Journal Watch... Every country, from St. Vincent in the Caribbean to China has the same influence on their result. Weighting by population nearly eliminates that result, and adjusting for correlated observations and dropping one or two unusual observations eliminates it completely... More academics and independent researchers are uncovering bias, fraud and plagiarism, bringing a bit of discipline to a field greatly in need of it.” Commentary at...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/climate-alarmists-bad-science-warming-temperature-05846239
 
(GLOBAL WARMING) LET’S WORK FOR SCIENCE WITH INTEGRITY (Forbes)
“Contrary to popular belief, even the official assessment reports – such as those by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the US government’s National Climate Assessments — indicate that “significant human-induced climate change would have negligible net economic impact on either the world or the US economies by the end of this century”... Story at...
https://www.forbes.com/sites/tilakdoshi/2021/04/30/lets-work-for-science-with-integrity-steve-koonins-new-book-unsettled/?sh=91c46a72f383
My cmt: Who would guess that conclusion based on the constant barrage of global warming scare tactics by the media? Most reports refer to weather rather than climate.
 
INTEL (Yahoo Finance)
“Shares of beleaguered semiconductor giant Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) tumbled for a fourth straight day on Friday, falling 2.3% through 10:15 a.m. ET as investors continue to digest the news that Intel lost $7 billion building semiconductor chips for its competitors last year. And Wall Street isn't helping matters much. Adding insult to injury, this morning, investment bank Bernstein commented that there is "no real reason to [own Intel stock] until 2030." Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-intel-stock-keeps-falling-152404916.html
 
PAYROLL REPORT / UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
“Payroll growth surpassed expectations once again in March, as employers added 303.000 workers to their payrolls...” Story at...
https://www.forbes.com/sites/harryholzer/2024/04/05/march-jobs-report-blockbuster-payroll-growth-while-wages-stay-moderate/?sh=88adf13506a4
My cmt: The unemployment rate was 3.8%.
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 1.1% to 5204.
-VIX slipped about 2% to 16.03.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.402%.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
QLD- Added 2/20/2024
UWM – Added 1/22/2024.
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows).
 
INTC – Added 12/6/2023.
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position in my retirement account betting on Smaller Caps.
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
 

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Friday, indicators moved to the bear side. Today there are 15 bear-signs and 7-Bull. It was 12 Bear and 10 Bull Thursday, so indicators are headed the wrong way. Here are a few of the significant indicators:
 
BULL SIGNS
-The 50-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is above 50%.
-The 100-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is above 50%
-The 5-10-20 Timer System is BUY.
 
BEAR SIGNS
-The 10-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is below 50%.
-The smoothed advancing volume on the NYSE is falling.
-The S&P 500 is 12.2% above its 200-dMA. (The Bear indicator is 12% above the 200-day.)
-Buying Pressure minus Selling Pressure.
-The short-term momentum is bearish.
-Short-term new-high/new-low data.
-Long-term new-high/new-low data.
-Smart Money
-MACD of Price
-My Money Trend indicator
-McClellan Oscillator
-XLU vs. S&P 500 spread.
 
Today was a was a statistically-significant, up-day. That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, up-day is followed by a down-day about 60% of the time.
 
I tried to sell Intel today, but I was locked out of my account because the Post Office informed my broker that my address was wrong. That’s odd because the broker had my correct address. This required a fairly lengthy call to fix, and by then, it was late. The point here is that the chart doesn’t look good for Intel if it should break lower.  It’s 7% below my December purchase price – time to sell.
 
If indicators don’t improve Monday, I’ll sell leveraged positions in QLD and UWM. I’m not particularly bearish, but I’d rather not take chances with leveraged positions.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained HOLD: PRICE is positive; SENTIMENT, VOLUME & VIX are neutral.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)
 
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish longer-term, but Neutral for now. I expect that any correction (if the S&P 500 did have one) would be less than 10%, but I am not predicting a correction today. 
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
I skipped my rules on Intel and it has been a disappointment. Now Intel reported disappointing earnings on its foundry business.  That’s the business they are building to manufacture chips for other customers.  Intel had never previously reported earnings for this separate unit.
 
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals declined to SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 

...My current invested position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting continuation of bullish market action.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October.