Friday, February 27, 2015

GDP – Second estimate Down…Chicago PMI Plummets…Michigan Sentiment Down

4th QUARTER GROWTH SLOWER THAN PRIOR ESTIMATE (Bloomberg)
“The economy in the U.S. expanded at a slower pace in the fourth quarter than previously reported, restrained by a smaller gain in stockpiles and widening trade gap, even as consumers continued to provide support. Gross domestic product, the value of all goods and services produced, rose at a 2.2 percent annualized rate, down from an initial estimate of 2.6 percent…” Story at…
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-27/u-s-gdp-grew-less-than-previously-estimated-in-fourth-quarter
 
CHICAGO PMI PLUMMETS (Briefing.com)
“The Chicago PMI declined to 45.8 in February from 59.4 in January. The Briefing.com Consensus expected the index to fall to 58.0…The Chicago PMI has little overall economic value, and is only watched by the financial markets because it is usually released one day in advance of the similar national ISM manufacturing survey.” Details at…
http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Calendars/Economic/Releases/chi.htm
This was a stunning decline and shows the Chicago region in decline.  The Richmond Fed released data showing a neutral reading (no expansion, but no contraction either) that was also well below expectations earlier this week.  The National ISM next Monday may move the market if it also misses expectations. 
 
MICHIGAN SENTIMENT (Bloomberg)
“Consumer confidence cooled in February from an 11-year high, reflecting recent gains in fuel costs and bad winter weather in parts of the U.S.  The University of Michigan final index of sentiment fell to 95.4, the first decrease in seven months, from January’s 98.1 that was the highest since the start of 2004.” Story at…
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-27/consumer-sentiment-in-u-s-cooled-in-february-from-11-year-high
 
MARKET REPORT
- Friday, the S&P 500 was down about 0.3% to 2105 (rounded).
-VIX fell about 4% to 13.34.  
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury Note fell to 1.99%.
 
RSI was 76 Friday – a neutral indication for the short term.
 
Volume finally picked up Friday, and was about 6% above the monthly average on the NYSE.  Unfortunately, it was on a down day and that only reinforces worries.
 
A pullback is getting closer, but I can’t tell whether it’s a few days away or a few weeks.  A pullback would be a 5-6% normal cycle down unless the news gets bad.
 
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks advancing (NYSE) dropped 54% at the close Friday.  (A number above 50% is usually GOOD news for the markets.) New-highs outpaced New-lows Friday. The spread (new-highs minus new-lows) was +83. (It was +111 Thursday).  The 10-day moving average of change in the spread was minus-9. In other words, over the last 10-days, on average, the spread has DECLINED by 9-each day.
 
Internals remained neutral on the market, but they are now trending down over the last 10-days.


Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.  In 2013, using these internals alone would have made a 16% return vs. 30% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive out on Negative – no shorting).  Of course, few trend-following systems will do well in an extreme low-volatility, straight-up year like 2013.
 
NTSM                                                            
Friday, the NTSM analysis remained HOLD. The PRICE indicator is positive; VIX, VOLUME and SENTIMENT indicators are neutral, although sentiment remains extremely high. 

MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION
I remain fully invested at 50% invested in stocks in the long-term portfolio. 50% is conservative, but appropriate for a retired guy. 
 
My position in the S&P 500 is very small now.  I have invested in the Dow Jones US Completion Total (^DWCPF) and an EAFE based fund because they are the only small-cap and international choices in my retirement account. (The DWCPF includes all stocks EXCEPT the S&P 500. The EAFE includes Europe and the Far East. The DWCPF is 1.6% ahead of the S&P 500 since 1 February.)

Thursday, February 26, 2015

Initial Jobless Claims…Durable Orders…Oil Producers Running out of Storage…Buy Gold…Buy Europe

JOBLESS CLAIMS (Time)
“Initial jobless claims last week increased by the highest amount in roughly two years, according to the latest data from the Department of Labor. The numbers, released Thursday, show those filing for unemployment last week jumped by 31,000 compared with a week earlier, pushing up the total number of individuals reporting to 313,000 from 282,000.“ Story at…
http://time.com/money/3723932/jobless-claims-surge/
It’s only 1-week’s data so no cause for alarm.
 
DURABLE ORDERS INCREASED (Bloomberg)
Orders for durable goods rose in January for the first time in three months, showing manufacturing may be starting to stabilize as companies look beyond weaker global markets and cutbacks among energy producers. Bookings for goods meant to last at least three years increased 2.8 percent after a revised 3.7 percent decrease the prior month…” Story at…
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-26/orders-for-u-s-durable-goods-increased-2-8-in-january
 
OIL PRODUCERS RUNNING OUT OF SPACE (CNBC)
“Oil supply running ahead of demand hasn't just pressured prices, it's also filling up storage space, potentially pushing crude toward another leg down. "We're going to see pretty fast inventory builds over the next few weeks," Francisco Blanch, head of commodity research at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch, told CNBC Wednesday, noting that global supply is running around 1.4 million barrels a day above demand. "If you run out of space, prices tend to react a lot more violently to adjust that supply and demand imbalance and that's what we expect over the next few weeks," he said, forecasting both WTI and Brent will fall toward $30 a barrel…” Story at…
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102453323
 
TIME TO BUY GOLD (CNBC)
“Jeff Kilburg, KKM Financial, makes the case for a breakout coming in gold.” –CNBC video at…
http://finance.yahoo.com/video/pro-calls-bottom-gold-192300588.html
It used to be a normal recommendation that a diversified portfolio maintain about 5% in gold.  That went to the wayside during the dotcom.era when stocks were the only place to be. It seems like a reasonable move now, since the GLD ETF appears to have bottomed so I’ll  start with a small position in GLD and only add more later if the trade is going well. Of course, Gold prices could go down, so I’ll sell if it drops more than a couple of % below the current price of around 116.   Gold may be derailed by rising interest rates and/or a strengthening dollar. Gold right now is a contrarian play.
 
TIME TO BUY EUROPE (CNBC)
“Gemma Godfrey, Brooks MacDonald head of investment strategy, makes the case for Europe's markets to drive upside going forward.” Video at…
http://finance.yahoo.com/video/best-place-invest-europe-vs-174100954.html
 
SHIFTING RETIREMENT ACCOUNT ALLOCATIONS
The international choice in my retirement fund is the EAF (Europe and Far East) ETF. It does look like the EAF bottomed back in early January. Since the TSP (my retirement accounts) limits the number of shifts in allocation to 3-per month, changing now (at the end of the month) leaves options open for next month.  I am shifting to S-25% (small caps); C-10% (S&P500); I-15% (international-EAFE); G-50% (cash/mix - about 2% yield) tomorrow.
 
MARKET REPORT
-Thursday, the S&P 500 was DOWN about 0.2% to 2111 (rounded).
-VIX rose about 0.5% to 13.91.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury Note rose to 2.03%.
 
RSI fell to 75 Thursday – a neutral indication for the short term.
 
Volume remained low again today, Thursday, and was about 11% below the monthly average on the NYSE.  This isn’t a bullish indication though I can’t say when the market may break down based on this stat.
 
A pullback is getting closer, but I can’t tell whether it’s a few days away or a few weeks.  Any pullback would be a routine 5-6% normal retreat unless the news get’s bad.
 
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks advancing (NYSE) remained 57% at the close Thursday. (I had a typo yesterday.)  (A number above 50% is usually GOOD news for the markets.) New-highs outpaced New-lows Thursday. The spread (new-highs minus new-lows) was +111. (It was +135 Wednesday).  The 10-day moving average of change in the spread was +4. In other words, over the last 10-days, on average, the spread has INCREASED by 4-each day.

Internals remained neutral on the market, but they are not trending one way or another so it is wait and see time.


Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.  In 2013, using these internals alone would have made a 16% return vs. 30% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive out on Negative – no shorting).  Of course, few trend-following systems will do well in an extreme low-volatility, straight-up year like 2013.
 
NTSM                                                            
Thursday, the NTSM analysis remained HOLD. The PRICE indicator is positive; VIX, VOLUME and SENTIMENT indicators are neutral, although sentiment remains extremely high. 

 
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION
I remain fully invested at 50% invested in stocks in the long-term portfolio. 50% is conservative, but appropriate for a retired guy. 
 
My position in the S&P 500 is very small now.  I have invested in the Dow Jones US Completion Total (^DWCPF) instead, because that is the only small-cap choice in my retirement account.  (The DWCPF includes all stocks EXCEPT the S&P 500.) Some Pros disagree, but so far it has worked out.  Since I made the call, at the end of January, the DWCPF is 1.8% ahead of the S&P 500.
 
I will shifting some funds into the EAF ETF (Europe and Far East) at the end of the month.  The US is expensive compared to the rest of the world and the EAF bottomed 9 Jan 2014. This is the only foreign investment available in my retirement account. I’ve noted the allocation above.

Wednesday, February 25, 2015

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending February 20, 2015…

CRUDE INVENTORY FROM US ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION
Excerpt from the weekly Petroleum Status report of the US Gov’t: “U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 8.4 million barrels from the previous week. At 434.1 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are at the highest level for this time of year in at least the last 80 years.” Report available at…
http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/
If inventories continue to rise, there is a very real possibility that there won’t be any place to put the excess crude.  Prices will then collapse.  I saw a trader on CNBC yesterday say that prices would continue to rise because so much supply had been taken out of the system based on rig counts.  (This goes against the WSJ story of 17 Feb that stated the opposite.  See…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/2015/02/earnings-oil-well-rig-counts-dont.html )
Something doesn’t add up, “U.S. crude oil production climbed to 9.29 million barrels per day, the highest figure on record in weekly data and the highest figure since 1973 in monthly data.” Based on this story at…
http://fuelfix.com/blog/2015/02/25/eia-u-s-crude-inventories-grow-again/
Bottom line: If inventories continue to build, the price must come down.
 
MARKET REPORT
-Wednesday, the S&P 500 was down about 0.1% to 2114 (rounded).
-VIX rose about 1% to 13.84.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury Note remained 1.97%.
 
RSI reached overbought territory again on Wednesday rising to 82 – a bearish indication for the short term.
 
Volume remained low again today, Wednesday, and was about 13% below the monthly average.  This isn’t a bullish indication though I can’t say when the market may break down based on this stat.
 
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks advancing (NYSE) remained 54% at the close Wednesday.  (A number above 50% is usually GOOD news for the markets.) New-highs outpaced New-lows Wednesday. The spread (new-highs minus new-lows) was +135. (It was +170 Tuesday).  The 10-day moving average of change in the spread was +9. In other words, over the last 10-days, on average, the spread has INCREASED by 9-each day.
 
Wednesday there were more advancing stocks than declining so I’d expect Thursday to be an up-day. Usually, the S&P 500 will follow the direction of the majority of stocks
 
Internals remained neutral on the market, but they are not trending one way or another so it is wait and see time.


Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.  In 2013, using these internals alone would have made a 16% return vs. 30% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive out on Negative – no shorting).  Of course, few trend-following systems will do well in an extreme low-volatility, straight-up year like 2013.
 
NTSM                                                            
Wednesday, the NTSM analysis remained HOLD. The PRICE indicator is positive; VIX, VOLUME and SENTIMENT indicators are neutral, although sentiment remains extremely high. 

MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION
I remain fully invested at 50% invested in stocks in the long-term portfolio. 50% is conservative, but appropriate for a retired guy. 
 
My position in the S&P 500 is very small now.  I have invested in the Dow Jones US Completion Total (^DWCPF) instead, because that is the only small-cap choice in my retirement account.  (The DWCPF includes all stocks EXCEPT the S&P 500.)

Some Pros disagree, but so far it has worked out.  Since I made the call, at the end of January, the DWCPF is 1.7% ahead of the S&P 500.
 
I am looking at shifting some funds into the EAF ETF (Europe and Far East) at the end of the month.  The US is expensive compared to the rest of the world and the EAF bottomed 9 Jan 2014. This is the only foreign investment available in my retirement account.

Tuesday, February 24, 2015

Consumer Confidence…Yellen (Fed) Testimony to Congress…Obama Vetoes Keystone Pipeline

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (USA Today)
“U.S. consumers are feeling a bit less confident this month, but their spirits are still at the highest levels since before the Great Recession. The Conference Board reported Tuesday that its consumer confidence index dropped this month to 96.4 from a revised 103.8 in January. The February and January readings are the highest since before the recession officially started in December 2007.” Story at…
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2015/02/24/consumer-confidence/23937943/
 
YELLEN CONGRESSIONAL TESTIMONY (Marketwatch)
“Janet Yellen stuck to her previous language of being data-dependent when it comes to deciding on the timing and the pace of raising interest rates. She pointed that the Fed needed confidence to see that the inflation rate is rising toward the 2% target while the labor market still has room for improvement. The main indexes edged higher, as Yellen’s testimony was perceived as mostly in line with the previous FOMC statement.” Story at…
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-investors-wait-for-fresh-direction-from-yellen-2015-02-24
 
OBAMA SAYS NO TO KEYSTONE PIPELINE - HE PREFERS RAIL TO PIPELINES….REALLY????

Crude Oil Train Burns near Charleston, West Virginia (16 Feb 2015)
BTW: These rail cars had been upgraded to the latest safety standards and the train was traveling below the speed limit.
 
CURRENTLY A HUGE SHORTAGE OF OIL PIPELINES (my headline) (Yahoo.com)
“Rail shipments of crude have increased from 9,500 carloads in 2008 to more than 435,000 in 2013, driven by a boom in the Bakken oil patch of North Dakota and Montana. Limited pipeline capacity there forces about 70 percent of the crude to reach refineries by rail, according to American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers.”
http://news.yahoo.com/west-virginia-train-derailment-sends-oil-tanker-river-204306095.html
Frankly, the above story is a reason I have problems with a large part of the environmental movement. In their opposition, there is no logic, no reasoning, and no analysis. The environmental movement says the Keystone pipeline will contribute to Global Warming; but even if that were true, the oil will be shipped in other ways that are more costly, dangerous, and environmentally unacceptable.  Not only does it take fossil fuels to haul the rail cars, but train tracks often follow the rivers and accidents almost always cause significant water pollution.  Federal data shows that in 2013 over a million gallons of crude oil was spilled in railcar accidents. Further…
“The federal government predicts that trains hauling crude oil or ethanol will derail an average of 10 times a year over the next two decades, causing more than $4 billion in damage and possibly killing hundreds of people if an accident happens in a densely populated part of the U.S.” (AP) Story…http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_OIL_TRAINS_SAFETY?SITE=VANOV&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT#_ga=1.225076826.1727190244.1424651550

A petroleum engineer would solve this problem in a hurry – in fact they did. That’s why the pipeline was proposed in the first place.
 
MARKET REPORT
-Tuesday, the S&P 500 was up about 0.3% to 2115 (rounded).
-VIX fell about 2% to 13.69.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury Note dropped to 1.97%.
 
RSI reached overbought territory on Friday at 84 and fell slightly to 81 Monday and finished at a neutral 71 Tuesday.
 
Volume remained low again today, Tuesday, and was about 12% below the monthly average.  This isn’t a bullish indication so I’ll be watching to see if volume will pick-up.
 
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks advancing (NYSE) remained 54% at the close Tuesday.  (A number above 50% is usually GOOD news for the markets.) New-highs outpaced New-lows Tuesday. The spread (new-highs minus new-lows) was +170. (It was +141 Monday).  The 10-day moving average of change in the spread was +13. In other words, over the last 10-days, on average, the spread has INCREASED by 13-each day.
 
Internals remained neutral on the market.

Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.  In 2013, using these internals alone would have made a 16% return vs. 30% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive out on Negative – no shorting).  Of course, few trend-following systems will do well in an extreme low-volatility, straight-up year like 2013.
 
NTSM                                                            
Monday, the NTSM analysis remained HOLD. PRICE and VOLUME indicators are positive; VIX and SENTIMENT indicators are neutral, although sentiment remains extremely high. 

MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION
I remain fully invested at 50% invested in stocks in the long-term portfolio. 50% is conservative, but appropriate for a retired guy. 
 
My position in the S&P 500 is very small now.  I have invested in the Dow Jones US Completion Total (^DWCPF) instead, because that is the only small-cap choice in my retirement account.  (The DWCPF includes all stocks EXCEPT the S&P 500.) Some Pros disagree, but so far it has worked out.  Since I made the call, at the end of January, the DWCPF is 1.4% ahead of the S&P 500.
 
I saw a very good discussion of the small vs large cap issue on CNBC Tuesday and the speaker noted that the PE’s were very high on the smaller cap stocks and suggested sticking with large cap (S&P500) based on expected future returns associated with the PE’s.
 
I am looking at shifting some funds into the EAF ETF (Europe and Far East) at the end of the month.  The US is expensive compared to the rest of the world and the EAF bottomed 9 Jan 2014. This is the only foreign investment available in my retirement account.