Navigate the Stock Market: January 2024

Wednesday, January 31, 2024

FED Rate Decision ... Chicago PMI ... ADP Employment ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

SUPREME COURT FLOODED WITH AMICUS BRIEFS ON 14TH AMENDMENT CASE (Colorado Newsline)
“High court scheduled to hear oral argument Feb. 8...
Constitutional law experts, state elections officials and a long list of Republican political figures are among those who have flooded the U.S. Supreme Court with their views on a landmark Colorado ruling blocking former President Donald Trump from the state’s 2024 ballot under a Civil War-era insurrection clause... About two-thirds of the 47 amicus briefs filed in the case as of Jan. 26 came from parties supporting Trump’s appeal, including nearly 200 Republican members of Congress, officeholders in over 25 GOP-controlled states and several of Trump’s former rivals for the Republican presidential nomination.” Story at...
https://coloradonewsline.com/2024/01/29/supreme-court-briefs-trump-colorado/

KEEP TRUMP OFF THE BALLOT (CNN)
“A former conservative federal appellate judge is urging the Supreme Court to keep Donald Trump off the ballot, arguing the ex-president’s effort to cling to power after his 2020 election loss was “broader” than South Carolina’s secession from the US that triggered the Civil War. ‘Mr. Trump tried to prevent the newly-elected President Biden from governing anywhere in the United States. The South Carolina secession prevented the newly-elected President Lincoln from governing only in that State,’ J. Michael Luttig, a former judge on the 4th US Circuit Court of Appeals, told the justices in a friend-of-the-court brief filed Monday.” Story at...
https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/29/politics/luttig-conway-supreme-court-trump-insurrection/index.html
My cmt: I have no guess where this case will go. There are a lot of legal issues in the case and they all must go against Trump for him to be disqualified.

FED RATE DECISION (CNBC)
“Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday that the central bank would likely not be comfortable enough with the path of inflation by its next meeting in March to cut interest rates. ‘Based on the meeting today, I would tell you that I don’t think it’s likely that the committee will reach a level of confidence by the time of the March meeting to identify March as the time to do that... The central bank’s next two policy decision dates are scheduled for March 20 and May 1.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/31/fed-chief-jerome-powell-says-a-march-rate-cut-is-not-likely.html

CHICAGO PMI (Advisor Perspectives)
“The latest Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index (Chicago Business Barometer) fell to 46.0 in January from 47.2 in December. The latest reading is worse than the 48.0 forecast and keeps the index in contraction territory for a second straight month.” Details at...
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/01/31/chicago-pmi-falls-in-january

ADP EMPLOYMENT CHANGE (ADP via prnewswire)
“Private sector employment increased by 107,000 jobs in January and annual pay was up 5.2 percent year-over-year... ‘Progress on inflation has brightened the economic picture despite a slowdown in hiring and pay," said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. "Wages adjusted for inflation have improved over the past six months, and the economy looks like it's headed toward a soft landing in the U.S. and globally.’" Press release at...
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/adp-national-employment-report-private-sector-employment-increased-by-107-000-jobs-in-january-annual-pay-was-up-5-2-302049287.html

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 slipped about 1.6% to 4846.
-VIX rose about 8% to 14.35.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 3.954. (Declines in the 10-yr have been good for stocks recently – let’s hope that trend continues.)

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
UWM – Added 1/22/2024
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows).
INTC – Added 12/6/2023.
Intel beat on income and revenue, but guidance was poor for the coming quarter.
“For the first quarter of fiscal 2024, Intel expects earnings per share of 13 cents on between $12.2 billion and $13.2 billion in sales, versus LSEG expectations of 33 cents per share on $14.15 billion of revenue.” From...
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/25/intel-intc-earnings-report-q4-2023.html

CRM – Added 1/22/2024
BA – Added 12/6/2023. I plan to hold Boeing for the time being.
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position in my retirement account betting on Small Caps.

TODAY’S COMMENT:

Fed Chair Jay Powell didn’t win any popularity contests on Wall Street today. Markets tanked during the Fed press conference. There was no expectation that the Fed would cut rates today, but apparently the statement that a cut in March was “unlikely” caused weakness to turn into a selloff. It seemed odd to me, but Fed funds futures suggested that the odds were 65% that they were going to cut in March. The odds had been below 50% until some of the economic news showed slowing in the economy recently.

“Boeing (BA) reported a better-than-expected loss in the fourth quarter early Wednesday. Boeing stock surged at the opening bell. The Dow Jones aerospace leader declined to provide a 2024 guidance amid its 737 Max-9 production issues during the earnings call.” Details at...
https://www.investors.com/news/boeing-narrows-loss-737-max-fallout/?src=A00220
I haven’t decided what to do with Boeing. I’m holding it for now. It was up over 5% today, even with the ongoing market weakness.

Wednesday was a statistically significant up down-day. That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, up down-day is followed by an ~~down~~ up-day about 60% of the time. [I need to fire my proof reader.]

There’s a lot of guesswork now regarding where the lower trend line is. If one draws a chart of the S&P 500 going back to the October 2023 lows and extends the bottom trend line thru the 17 Jan 2024 low, then Wednesday’s value of the S&P 500 is sitting on the lower trend line. That would be a bullish sign since we don’t expect the lower trend line to be broken by much if at all. Conversely, the S&P 500 is about 3% above its 50-dMA and that point is often around the lower trend line. The S&P 500 futures are now (8pm Wednesday) up about 0.2%, so I’ll take the bullish case and hope this weakness is ending.

The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) declined from +6 to +3 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from +6 to +21. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce around a lot.

LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator declined to HOLD: PRICE is bullish; VOLUME, SENTIMENT & VIX are neutral.
(One warning: The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)

(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)

BOTTOM LINE
I remain bullish. I’ll be watching for weak indicators that might signal a reversal. So far, all is well; indicators have declined, but not that much..

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.)

...My current invested position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting continuation of bullish market action.

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October.

Tuesday, January 30, 2024

Consumer Confidence ... How We Deterred Iran Last Time ... JOLTS – Job Openings ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“For the past 30 years, self-identified Democrats have outnumbered Republicans in all but a few years. Now the parties are tied at a relatively low 27 percent each.” – Newsweek.
Opinion: Matthews: 27: A number that should terrify both Republicans and Democrats (msn.com)
Hmmmmm... 100% - 27%R - 27%D = 46% Independent. It wouldn’t take many defections to give the independents a majority. Who says No Name Party can’t win?

-The US has been attacked 150 times since the October 7 Hamas/Palestine attack on Israel. – Fox News.

HOW WE DETERRED IRAN IN THE GULF LAST TIME (WSJ)
“Fortunately, we know how to re-establish deterrence. We’ve been here before.
On April 14, 1988, the USS Samuel B. Roberts was hit by an Iranian mine while escorting Kuwaiti oil tankers in the Persian Gulf. The explosion lifted the ship out of the water, ripped a 30-foot hole below the waterline, destroyed a 15-foot section of the keel, and seriously injured 10 sailors... Four days later, at the direction of President Reagan, the U.S. Navy, in combined surface-ship and air attacks, engaged the Iranian Navy in a daylong battle named Praying Mantis... Praying Mantis remains a case study in strengthening deterrence. Our victory kept Iran’s navy at bay for more than two decades and helped change the course of the Iran-Iraq War, which had upended the region for eight bloody years. Iran never laid mines in the Gulf again.” - William J. Luti, retired U.S. Navy captain and an adjunct fellow at the Hudson Institute. Commentary at...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-we-deterred-iran-in-the-gulf-last-time-reagan-navy-operation-praying-mantis-580b3c95

THE ANTI-LNG CRUSADE (WSJ)
“Americans received a preview of a second Biden term on Friday when the President halted permits for new liquefied natural gas (LNG) export projects. Climate politics has become the tail wagging this Administration’s economic, national security and foreign policy. President Biden isn’t running for re-election. Climate lobbyist Bill McKibben and his TikTok army are... Who cares about the real-world impact, or the signal to allies and adversaries that the U.S. isn’t a reliable partner? Europe and Asia should plan to import their gas from Qatar, Russia or even Iran. Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin now know they can exploit the Administration’s climate obsession to undermine U.S. interests... China was the biggest coal importer, followed by India, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. Demand for LNG has outstripped supply especially as Europe tries to wean itself from Russian gas. A Bangladesh energy official complained last year that Asian countries couldn’t buy gas because of skyrocketing prices. Instead, they burned coal. How will this be good for the climate?” Commentary at
https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-lng-export-pause-white-house-tiktok-climate-bill-mckibben-3efb5287?mod=opinion_lead_pos12
My cmt: This policy will increase Global CO2 emissions as more countries burn coal, increase unemployment, and hurt the United States. This is as irrational as was ending the Keystone XL pipeline. That forced oil to travel by rail at greater environmental risk, higher cost, and increased pollution. The Global Warming lobby isn’t about the environment – they just want to hurt “big oil” and the United States.

“U.S. natural-gas supply is perfectly ample but activists have prevented the necessary pipelines to meet demand in the Northeast. A recent report by Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and the North American Electric Reliability Corp. indicates that last year New York City came dangerously close to running out of gas to maintain apartment-building heat.
...we have a picture of Americans on a path to commit energy suicide in the name of climate change while doing nothing about climate change. This isn’t sustainable and won’t be, but it may well take something like the posited New York City deep freeze. Only then will politicians stop pretending to do something about climate change in favor of actually protecting the energy security of Americans amid a changing climate whose processes are not well understood and certainly are not being meaningfully ameliorated by public policy.” – Holman W Jemkins, Jr. Commentary at...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-climate-policy-went-wrong-new-aerosal-study-energy-subsidies-carbon-tax-4e437371?mod=opinion_recentauth_pos1

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (Conference Board)
"The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® rose in January to 114.8 (1985=100), up from a revised 108.0 in December. The reading was the highest since December 2021... ‘January’s increase in consumer confidence likely reflected slower inflation, anticipation of lower interest rates ahead, and generally favorable employment conditions as companies continue to hoard labor,’ said Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board...Consumers’ Perceived Likelihood of a US Recession over the Next 12 Months continued to gradually ease in January...” Press release at...
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence

JOLTS – JOB OPENINGS (CNN Business)
“The US job market remains strong and workers are still in demand...However, there are plenty of indications that activity continues to cool. The number of available jobs in the United States unexpectedly rose in December to an estimated 9.026 million, according to seasonally adjusted Bureau of Labor Statistics data released Tuesday... the trajectory of the data paints a picture of a solid, but slowing, labor market.” Story at...
https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/30/economy/jolts-job-openings-layoffs-december/index.html

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 slipped about 0.1% to 4925.
-VIX dipped about 2% to 13. 31.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.036.

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
UWM – Added 1/22/2024
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows).
INTC – Added 12/6/2023.
Intel beat on income and revenue, but guidance was poor for the coming quarter.
“For the first quarter of fiscal 2024, Intel expects earnings per share of 13 cents on between $12.2 billion and $13.2 billion in sales, versus LSEG expectations of 33 cents per share on $14.15 billion of revenue.” From...
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/25/intel-intc-earnings-report-q4-2023.html

CRM – Added 1/22/2024
BA – Added 12/6/2023. I plan to hold Boeing for the time being.
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position in my retirement account betting on Small Caps.

TODAY’S COMMENT:
I really dislike politicians. We listen to the Administration claim how wonderful the stock market is under Biden. It’s making new-all-time highs. But let’s be real – the S&P 500 has gone almost nowhere in two years. It is now 2.5% higher than it was 2-years ago and we experienced a 25% bear market drop in the interim. If that is a good market, I don’t want any part of it. Trump’s claims are almost as laughable. The truth is, politicians don’t have a lot of control over the economy and certainly not the stock market. Even while we’ve run large deficits since the Reagan years, we have continued to experience recessions and significant drops in stock markets. I’ll get off my soap box...

There was a Bollinger Squeeze 2 weeks ago. I said at the time, “A squeeze precedes a big breakout either up or down. Bollinger Bands are now very close to “overbought” so it looks like the break out is most likely to be down.” That turned out not to be the case. Markets are up about 4% since the squeeze was in effect, so the breakout was up.

Markets still look good though we’ve seen a lot of up-moves and too many up-days usually result in a pullback of some kind. Markets are not there yet and a down-day like today is good news.

The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) declined from +9 to +6 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from -11 to +6. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce around a lot.

LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained BUY: VOLUME & PRICE are bullish; SENTIMENT & VIX are neutral.
(One warning: The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)

(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)

BOTTOM LINE
I remain bullish.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:

Monday, January 29, 2024

Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

-The US has been attacked 150 times since the October 7 Hamas/Palestine attack on Israel. – Fox News.

“Mitch McConnell created a Beltway stir Thursday when the press reported that the Senate GOP leader had cast doubt on a deal for border security and aid to Ukraine and Israel... The Kentucky Republican was noting the reality that the deal faces political headwinds, and he is right to warn his colleagues that their window for a rare accomplishment is waning. Donald Trump is trying to torpedo any agreement, which could cause a GOP stampede away from a deal.” – Editorial Board, WSJ. From...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/republicans-border-deal-mitch-mcconnell-mike-johnson-congress-president-biden-726b18e6

"Donald Trump has decided the way to unite the GOP, after his 54% to 43% victory in New Hampshire, is to purge Republicans who are still skeptical of him. Retribution is at the top of his mind, as he said when launching his campaign... If Mr. Trump and other MAGA figures spend the coming months trying to purify the GOP of everyone who won’t kiss his ring, it will be a high act of self-sabotage. It will also be a good reason to vote for someone else.” – Editorial Board, WSJ. From...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/donald-trump-nikki-haley-republican-party-kari-lake-jeff-dewit-eb11df47

“There is much to agree with in your [WSJ] editorial “The 2024 Republican Choice” (Jan. 22), but it dismisses the “dictatorship” risk, arguing that it “undersells the resilience of American institutions, which have held up so far against the stress test of Mr. Trump.” It wasn’t institutions, however, that spared us a constitutional catastrophe in late 2020 and early 2021. It was people—Mike Pence, Bill Barr, Pat Cipollone, Mark Milley and a long list of others who put their oath above their boss’s demands.
Former President Donald Trump has made clear that he intends to populate a second administration with sycophants. It is easy to imagine those same institutions crumbling this time around. - Bill Goss, WSJ Letters to the Editor. From...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-jan-6-democracy-second-term-5aaf2ef0

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.8% to 4928.
-VIX rose about 3% to 13. 60. (VIX is a measure of future volatility, up or down. It usually moves in the opposite direction from the S&P 500, but not always.)
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.076.

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
UWM – Added 1/22/2024
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows).
INTC – Added 12/6/2023.
Intel beat on income and revenue, but guidance was poor for the coming quarter.
“For the first quarter of fiscal 2024, Intel expects earnings per share of 13 cents on between $12.2 billion and $13.2 billion in sales, versus LSEG expectations of 33 cents per share on $14.15 billion of revenue.” From...
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/25/intel-intc-earnings-report-q4-2023.html

CRM – Added 1/22/2024
BA – Added 12/6/2023. I plan to hold Boeing for the time being. Could it get any worse for them? Yes, it could – more loose bolts found Tuesday.
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position in my retirement account betting on Small Caps.

TODAY’S COMMENT:
My trading holdings were all over the place today: Boeing was down a little; Intel was up about 0.4%; but Salesforce was the big winner, up nearly 3%. (I’m not sure if I will continue to hold Boeing and Intel.)

The S&P 500 made another new all-time high Tuesday and 5.6% of issues on the NYSE made new, 52-week highs. That’s an OK number. I calculated a 5-year average a while back and it was 6.7% so today’s number is still below average. I’ll continue to watch this stat since it can be an early warning for the markets.

The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) improved from +4 to +9 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from -28 to -11. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce around a lot.

LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator improved to BUY: SENTIMENT, VOLUME & PRICE are bullish; VIX is neutral.
(One warning: The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)

(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)

BOTTOM LINE
I remain bullish. Markets don’t look too stretched; I think they can go higher.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

...My current invested position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting new, all-time highs sooner rather than later. I have about 25% of the portfolio in bonds.

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October.

Friday, January 26, 2024

PCE ... Spending ... Income ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

TWO LETTERS – PRO & CON
(1)“I read your [WSJ] editorial with great dismay. You mention that a second Trump term would be chaotic and not desirable. I disagree. Chaos is exactly what we need to drain the swamp and stop our nation’s descent.” - James Angelini, WSJ Letters

(2)“At this point in the 2024 primary season, Republican voters need to ask themselves two questions. First, won’t millions more voters feel compelled to vote, braving rain, snow or circumstance, because of their hatred of Donald Trump? Second, which would be worse for the country and the world—four more years of President Biden, four more years of President Trump, or four, and likely eight, years of President Haley? - Bill Boles, WSJ Letters.

“He [Trump] constantly engages in reckless conduct that puts his political followers at risk, and the conservative and republican agenda at risk...He will always put his own interest and gratifying his own ego ahead of everything else including the country’s interest, there’s no question about it.” – Bill Barr, Attorney General under Donald Trump.

PCE / PERSONAL SPENDING / INCOME
(PCE)

“Prices ticked up slightly last month but the longer-run trend showed inflation cooling... Consumers spending rose by a stronger-than-expected 0.7% from November, compared with a 0.2% rise the prior month. Personal-income growth cooled to 0.3%.
” Story at...
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-jones-earnings-01-26-2024/card/pce-inflation-report-what-to-expect-G4Wd9ub2n5IuigSsOu4Y

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 dipped about 0.1% to 4891.
-VIX declined about 1% to 13.26.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.139.

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
UWM – Added 1/22/2024
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows).
INTC – Added 12/6/2023.

Intel beat on income and revenue, but guidance was poor for the coming quarter.
“For the first quarter of fiscal 2024, Intel expects earnings per share of 13 cents on between $12.2 billion and $13.2 billion in sales, versus LSEG expectations of 33 cents per share on $14.15 billion of revenue.” From...
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/25/intel-intc-earnings-report-q4-2023.html

CRM – Added 1/22/2024
BA – Added 12/6/2023. I plan to hold Boeing for the time being. Could it get any worse for them? Yes, it could – more loose bolts found Tuesday.
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position in my retirement account betting on Small Caps.

TODAY’S COMMENT:
Friday, unchanged volume was very high. As I’ve often said, many believe that this indicator suggests investor confusion at market turning points. The S&P 500 is roughly in the middle of its channel. If this is a turning point, I’m not sure whether the markets are turning up or down. “High-unchanged-volume” is not one of my indicators because it is often wrong, and like today, sometimes hard to interpret.

We look at a summary of indicators on Friday. (These indicators tend to be both long-term and short-term, so they are different than the 20 that I report on daily.) The weekly rundown of indicators turned Bullish this week: now 4-bear and 20-bull.

BULL SIGNS
-There have been 2 Follow-thru Days recently: 18 & 19 January.
-The smoothed advancing volume on the NYSE is rising.
-Sentiment. (Sentiment got very bearish recently due to the continued march higher. Too much bearishness is bullish.)
-The 10-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is below 50%.
-The 50-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is above 50%.
-The 100-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is above 50%
-MACD of S&P 500 price made a bullish crossover 22 Jan.
-My Money Trend indicator.
-Long-term new-high/new-low data.
-Short-term new-high/new-low data.
-Slope of the 40-dMA of New-highs is rising.
-McClellan Oscillator.
-The graph of the 100-day Count (the 100-day sum of up-days).
-The Smart Money (late-day action).
-On average, the size of up-moves has been larger than the size of down-moves over the last month.
-There was a high up-volume day on 21 December canceling the High down-volume day on 20 December. In addition, there were back-to-back, high up-volume days (80%+) on the NYSE 13 & 14 Dec.
-S&P 500 spread vs. Utilities (XLU-ETF).
-The 5-10-20 Timer System is BUY.
-The short-term momentum is bullish.
-57% of the 15-ETFs that I track have been up over the last 10-days. (45-55% is neutral.)

NEUTRAL
-There have been 3 Statistically-Significant days (big moves in price-volume) in the last 15-days.
-Bollinger Bands.
-The Bollinger Squeeze has cleared.
-Overbought/Oversold Index (Advance/Decline Ratio).
-The 50-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) has not been below 50% for more than 3 days in a row.
-The S&P 500 is 10.6% above its 200-dMA. (Bear indicator is 12% above the 200-day.)
-The short-term, 10-day EMA, Fosback Hi-Low Logic Index.
-The long-term, 50-dEMA, Fosback Hi-Low Logic Index.
-There have been 11 up-days over the last 20 sessions.
-There have been 7 up-days over the last 10 sessions.
-The Calm-before-the-Storm/Panic Indicator flashed a top warning signal 15 Sept., but it may well have been a bottom signal. - Expired
-VIX indicator.
-There was a New-high/New-low spread reversal on 4 October (based on std deviation of spread). - Expired
-There were Hindenburg Omen signals 11 & 12 Sept 2023 – expired. The McClellan Oscillator turned positive.
-5.1% of all issues traded on the NYSE made new, 52-week highs when the S&P 500 made a new all-time-high, 25 January 2024. (There is no bullish signal for this indicator.)
-20 December there was a Bearish Outside Reversal Day, but the S&P 500 closed above the high for 20 December, 4778, on 27 & 28 December so this one is now neutral.
-There was a Zweig Breadth Thrust 3 November. That’s a rare, very-bullish sign, but the McClellan Oscillator turned negative ending this signal.

BEAR SIGNS
-MACD of the percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (breadth) made a bearish crossover 12 January.
-Issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) compared to the S&P 500.
-RSI.
-Smoothed Buying Pressure minus Selling Pressure.
-XLI-ETF (Cyclical Industrials) vs the S&P 500.

On Monday’s update of the Friday summary of indicators (20 December 2021), 9 days before the top of the 2-year long 25% correction, there were 21 bear-signs and zero bull-signs. Now there are 5 bear-signs and 20-Bull. Last week, there were 11 bear-sign and 10 bull-signs.

The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) declined from +5 to +4 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from -38 to -28. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce around a lot.

LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained HOLD: SENTIMENT & PRICE are bullish; VOLUME & VIX are neutral.
(One warning: The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)

(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)

BOTTOM LINE
I remain bullish.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:

Thursday, January 25, 2024

GDP ... Jobless Claims ... Durable Orders ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

JOBLESS CLAIMS (WSJ)
“Layoffs remained subdued through mid-January, despite the slowing labor market. Weekly filings for unemployment benefits—a proxy for layoffs—ticked up 25,000 to 214,000 last week but were still low by historical standards.” Story at...
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-jones-earnings-01-25-2024/card/jobless-claims-signal-labor-market-holding-up-in-january-K7jjAXrzNCg8tNY8dFCH

DURABLE ORDERS (Yahoo Finance)
“Orders for long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods were unexpectedly unchanged in December amid a slump in transportation equipment, but demand elsewhere held up... Economists polled by Reuters had forecast durable goods orders would rise 1.1%. Orders increased 4.4% on a year-over-year basis in December.” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-durable-goods-unchanged-december-140118485.html

GDP-ADV (Yahoo Finance)
“The US economy grew at a faster rate than expected in the fourth quarter, capping off a year many expected to end in recession with one final economic surprise. The Bureau of Economic Analysis's advance estimate of fourth quarter US gross domestic product (GDP) showed the economy grew at an annualized pace of 3.3% during the period...” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gdp-us-economy-grows-at-33-annual-pace-in-fourth-quarter-faster-than-expected-133828802.html

NEW HOME SALES (Housingwire)
“Sales of new single‐family houses in December 2023 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 664,000...This is 8.0 percent (±24.2 percent)* above the revised November rate of 615,000 and is 4.4 percent (±20.6 percent)* above the December 2022 estimate of 636,000.” Story at...
https://www.housingwire.com/articles/2023-new-home-sales-helped-the-economy-avoid-a-recession/

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 0.5% to 4894.
-VIX rose about 2% to 13.45.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped to 4.120

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
UWM – Added 1/22/2024
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows).
INTC – Added 12/6/2023.
Intel beat on income and revenue, but guidance was poor for the coming quarter.

“For the first quarter of fiscal 2024, Intel expects earnings per share of 13 cents on between $12.2 billion and $13.2 billion in sales, versus LSEG expectations of 33 cents per share on $14.15 billion of revenue.” From...
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/25/intel-intc-earnings-report-q4-2023.html

CRM – Added 1/22/2024
BA – Added 12/6/2023. I plan to hold Boeing for the time being. Could it get any worse for them? Yes, it could – more loose bolts found Tuesday.
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position in my retirement account betting on Small Caps.

TODAY’S COMMENT:
I forgot to mention that Wednesday, unchanged volume was very high. As I’ve often said, many believe that this indicator suggests investor confusion at market turning points. Indications are improving, so if this is a turning point, I’d have to assume it is confirmation of the correction-over signs we’ve seen for the recent, small 3% pullback. That’s my guess; “high-unchanged-volume” is not one of my indicators because it is often wrong, and like yesterday, sometimes hard to interpret.

I got a double whammy today (Thursday) with continued weakness in Boeing and poor guidance from Intel – both were down a lot – ouch! I’ll see what happens with Intel tomorrow. It keeps getting worse for Boeing and continuing weakness would not be a surprise.

The S&P 500 made another new all-time high Tuesday and 4.3% of issues on the NYSE made new, 52-week highs. That’s an OK number. I’ll continue to watch this stat since it can be an early warning for the markets.

RSI is now overbought, but today, Bollinger Bands were not. Still, top-indicators are not far from signaling another short-term top and markets could come under some pressure, but I don’t expect anything big. On the other hand, most indicators are looking much more bullish. We’ll see that Friday when I do the Friday Summary of Indicators. There have been 6 consecutive days up so the S&P 500 is due for a down day.

The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) improved from +1 to +5 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from -47 to -38. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce around a lot.

LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained HOLD: PRICE is bullish; VOLUME, VIX & SENTIMENT are neutral.

(One warning: The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)

(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)

BOTTOM LINE
I remain bullish.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.)

Wednesday, January 24, 2024

PMI ... Crude Oil Inventories ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

S&P COMPOSITE PMI (S&P Global)
“Businesses in the US signalled a stronger upturn in activity at the start of the year, as output growth quickened to the sharpest rate in seven months. The expansion was driven by service providers, as manufacturers continued to see a drop in production amid intensifying supply issues. Nonetheless, a broad-based improvement in demand conditions was reported, as firms reported stronger new order growth for both goods and services, helping push business confidence for the year ahead to a 20-month high.” Story at...
https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/e378d753625f446d9d4ef29b3f71a1c4

EIA CRUDE INVENTORIES (EIA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 9.2 million barrels from the previous week. At 420.7 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 5% below the five year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf

PRIMARY ELECTION MUSING
I, along with many others, have been suggesting that the public abhors the possibility of a Biden/Trump rematch. After the results in Iowa and New Hampshire, it is clear that I am wrong. Apparently, the electorate loves the match-up. Why? I haven’t got a clue. - M. Stith

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.1% to 4869.
-VIX rose about 5% to 13.14.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.180

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
UWM – Added 1/22/2024
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows).
INTC – Added 12/6/2023.

CRM – Added 1/22/2024
BA – Added 12/6/2023. I plan to hold Boeing for the time being. Could it get any worse for them? Yes, it could – more loose bolts found Tuesday.
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position in my retirement account betting on Small Caps.

TODAY’S COMMENT:
The chart below is a plot of the S&P 500 (GSPC) and the Russel 2000 (IWM) from 7 December (when I purchased the small caps) thru 24 January at about 3 pm. At the end of December, my switch into small-caps looked like a brilliant move. Since then, small-caps pulled back and have slightly underperformed the S&P 500. It’s something to watch. Since interest rates have remained relatively high, small caps are under performing. If the under-performance continues, I may switch back to the large caps. The smalls will outperform when the Fed gives more optimistic clues on rate cuts.

The S&P 500 made another new all-time high Tuesday and 5% of issues on the NYSE made new, 52-week highs. That’s an OK number. I’ll continue to watch this stat since it can be an early warning for the markets.

RSI is very close to overbought, but today, Bollinger Bands were not overbought. Still, indicators are not far from signaling another short-term top and markets could come under some pressure, but I don’t expect anything big.

The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) declined from +2 to +1 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations declined from -50 to -47. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce around a lot.

LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained HOLD: PRICE is bullish; VOLUME, VIX & SENTIMENT are neutral.

(One warning: The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)

(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)

BOTTOM LINE
I remain bullish.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.)