Federal Reserve ... ADP Employment ... Chicago PMI ... JOLTS ... Crude Inventories ... Best DOW Stocks ... Best ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
FED MAY EASE OFF ‘JUMBO’ RATE HIKES (CNBC)
“After four consecutive “jumbo” rate hikes of 0.75 percentage point, Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell suggested that the next rate hike in December will only be 0.50 percentage point, in a speech at The Brookings Institute on Wednesday... “It makes sense to moderate the pace of our rate increases,” Powell said, citing a recent drop in year-over-year inflation, as well as the lag effects to prices from “rapid” rate hikes in 2022.” Story at... 
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/30/jerome-powell-federal-reserve-may-ease-off-jumbo-rate-hikes.html
 
ADP EMPLOYMENT (ADP)
-“Private employers added 127,000 jobs in November. Job creation slowed by the most since January 2021, led by construction and other interest rate-sensitive sectors. Consumer-facing segments - including health care and hospitality - were bright spots...Turning points can be hard to capture in the labor market, but our data suggest that Federal Reserve tightening is having an impact on job creation and pay gains.” Press release at...
https://adpemploymentreport.com/
 
CHICAGO PMI (sharecast.com)
“Market News International's Chicago factory sector Purchasing Managers' index cratered to a reading of 37.2. That was down from an October print of 45.2 and well below economists' forecasts for a reading of 47.0.” Story at...
https://www.sharecast.com/news/international-economic/chicago-pmi-craters-in-november--11559718.html
 
JOLTS JOB OPENINGS (CNBC)
“The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed there were 10.33 million vacancies for the month, decline of 353,000 from September and down 760,000 compared with a year ago. That left 1.7 job openings per available worker for the month, down from a 2 to 1 ratio just a few months ago.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/30/jolts-report-october-2022-job-openings-fall-amid-fed-efforts-to-cool-labor-market.html
 
EIA CRUDEINVENTORIES (EIA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 12.6 million barrels from the previous week. At 419.1 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 8% below the five year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
 
FED BEIGE BOOK (WSJ)
“U.S. economic growth eased this fall with business activity in some parts of the country stalling or declining, the Federal Reserve said in a Wednesday report. Businesses also expressed greater uncertainty and increased pessimism for the U.S. economy as prices and interest rates continue to rise, according to the central bank’s latest compilation of economic anecdotes from around the country, known as the Beige Book.  U.S. economic activity was “about flat or up slightly,” compared with a moderate average pace of growth cited in the prior report.” Story at... 
https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-economic-growth-slowed-this-fall-feds-beige-book-says-11669836396
 
SEASONAL HEADWINDS (Heritage Captial)
“...while I have been super bullish since the bottom, I also recognize that the S&P 500 is up roughly 13% since October 12th and it is stretching the envelope to mix my metaphors. Some retrenchment is likely and needed for the final push into year-end. The rally should not be over if my preferred scenario remains correct.” – Paul Schatz. Commentary at..
https://investfortomorrow.com/blog/seasonal-headwind-today-as-black-friday-cyber-monday-get-weighed/
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 3.1% to 4080.
-VIX dipped about 6% to 20.58.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped to 3.606%.
 
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 14.9% as of today. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 229-days.
The S&P 500 is 0.7% ABOVE its 200-dMA & 7.4% above its 50-dMA. (The last rally failed at the 200-dMA. Let’s see if the Index can close above it on consecutive days.)
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area and I am fully invested with a higher percentage of stocks than normal.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLI – Industrial ETF (XLI still looks good to me. Nearly 10% of XLI is in Boeing and Caterpillar and they are both strong performers in the DOW momentum analysis.) 
QLD – 2x Nas 100
DDM – 2x Dow 30. I may sell DDM and replace it with SSO (2x S&P 500), but for now, the DOW 30 is still doing better than the S&P 500.
XLK – Technology ETF
 
CVX – (I may hold this as a long-term position. I already owned a small position in CVX.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Fed Chair Powell’s speech was today, not yesterday, as I reported incorrectly.  What did he say? Here’s all we need to know in graph form:

Traders are back; volume jumped higher today even before the Powell speech. After the speech, it boomed higher.  The end-of-month may have added to volume too, since money managers often make changes at month end. Volume finished 60% above the monthly average.
 
Further, today was a 90% up-volume day with a close at the top of the range for the day. Since the 90% down-volume day on 9 November, there were back-to-back 80% up-volume days and now a 90% up-volume day.  That’s just more bullish confirmation of the ongoing strong up-trend; it’s just another suggestion that the bottom was back in October.
 
From a technical perspective, the best news may be that the S&P 500 crossed above its 200-dMA today, Wednesday.  The last rally failed when the index couldn’t break above its 200-dMA.
 
Today, the daily sum of 20 Indicators improved from +9 to +12 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations remained from +143. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce around a lot.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained BUY: SENTIMENT is neutral; VOLUME, VIX, & PRICE are bullish.  (The important Buy signal from this indicator ensemble was 21 October (7 days after the low); my first buy indication was on 21 September (2% above the low) based on analysis of retests of the June low.) 
 
Bottom line: I remain a Bull. I think the bottom was 3577 on 12 October. There is always the possibility that the markets could retest those lows, but it seems less likely that a retest will occur in 2022.
 
I’m now invested with about 75% of the portfolio invested in stocks. (As a retiree, 50% invested in stocks is my “normal” portfolio.) 75% stocks is uber-bullish and that’s as far as I’ll go.
 
BEST ETFs - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
XLE has taken the top position in the ETF momentum index. I own CVX so I already have good exposure to energy.
 
BEST DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD.
(Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 
 

...My current invested position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’ll cut back on stocks if we see serious bear signs.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF.
 

Consumer Confidence ... Stock Market Analysis ... Best DOW Stocks ... Best ETFs …

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
Keep skunks, bankers, and politicians at a distance. – Hillbilly Wisdom.
 

Political commentary at...
https://michaelpramirez.com/index.html
 
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (Conference Board)
“Consumer confidence declined again in November, most likely prompted by the recent rise in gas prices,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “The Present Situation Index moderated further and continues to suggest the economy has lost momentum as the year winds down. Consumers’ expectations regarding the short-term outlook remained gloomy. Indeed, the Expectations Index is below a reading of 80, which suggests the likelihood of a recession remains elevated.” Press release at...
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 slipped about 0.2% to 3958.
-VIX dipped about 1% to 20. 50.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped to 3.734%.
 
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 17.5% as of today. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 228-days.
The S&P 500 is 2.3% Below its 200-dMA & 4.3% above its 50-dMA. (The last rally failed at the 200-dMA so I am watching this now.)
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area and I am fully invested with a higher percentage of stocks than normal.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLI – Industrial ETF (XLI still looks good to me. Nearly 10% of XLI is in Boeing and Caterpillar and they are both strong performers in the DOW momentum analysis.) 
QLD – 2x Nas 100
DDM – 2x Dow 30. I may sell DDM and replace it with SSO (2x S&P 500), but for now, the DOW 30 is still doing better than the S&P 500.
XLK – Technology ETF
 
CVX – (I may hold this as a long-term position. I already owned a small position in CVX.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
It is not surprising to see some profit taking. I’d still like to see the Nasdaq perform better so we could feel more confident that the lows are definitely behind us.  While I doubt that a return to the October lows will happen this year, there is always the concern that we could see selling pick up next year, especially if there are recession signs. 
 
When one considers the economy, it seems to be humming along pretty well, in spite of headwinds from inflation and the Fed. In fact, here’s the present GDP estimate from the Atlanta Fed: “The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2022 is 4.3 percent on November 23, up from 4.2 percent on November 17.” No sign of recession there! The issue remains: “Will the Fed put the economy in recession in its inflation fight?” We’ll have to wait and see.
 
I didn’t hear Fed Chairman Powell’s Speech today, but markets didn’t seem to be upset by it since they recovered in the afternoon.
 
Today, the daily sum of 20 Indicators remained +9 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations declined from +148 to +143. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce around a lot.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained BUY: VOLUME and SENTIMENT are neutral; VIX, & PRICE are bullish.  (The important Buy signal from this indicator ensemble was 21 October (7 days after the low); my first buy indication was on 21 September (2% above the low) based on analysis of retests of the June low.) 
 
Bottom line: I remain a Bull. I think the bottom was 3577 on 12 October. There is always the possibility that the markets could retest those lows, but it seems less likely that a retest will occur in 2022.
 
I’m now invested with about 75% of the portfolio invested in stocks. (As a retiree, 50% invested in stocks is my “normal” portfolio.) 75% stocks is uber-bullish and that’s as far as I’ll go.
 
BEST ETFs - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.

*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
XLE has taken the top position in the ETF momentum index. I own CVX so I already have good exposure to energy.
 
BEST DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.

For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD.
(Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 
 

...My current invested position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’ll cut back on stocks if we see serious bear signs.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF.
 

Best DOW Stocks ... Best ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“MAGA, the Republicans and Fox News have done to our parents what they said video games would do to us and what their parents said rock and roll music would do to them.” - Patrick Blake. Virginian-Pilot letters to the editor.
 
“They've been saying, 'It's 2016, again' through three losing election cycles. No, it's 2012, again. That's when Trump tried to run for president by activating the crazies, crashed and burned.” - Anne Coulter, Conservative author, columnist and lawyer.
 
“The use of climate policy to soak Americans keeps getting worse, and the United Nation’s climate conference in Egypt ended this weekend with agreement on a new fund to pay reparations to poor countries. Welcome to the latest climate shakedown...China emits two-thirds more CO2 than Europe and the U.S. combined. Coal accounts for 60% of China’s power generation, and more new coal plants are set for approval through 2025 than the entire existing U.S. fleet. China says it needs more coal power for energy security and, unlike Europe and the U.S., it won’t commit climate suicide...
...All of this ignores the benefits for humanity, rich and poor, that economic growth spurred by capitalism have provided. American taxpayers are being asked to pay because the U.S. industrialized first and then lifted billions of people out of poverty via investment and trade.” WSJ commentary at... https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-signs-up-for-climate-change-reparations-europe-fund-un-john-kerry-poor-countries-bank-capitalism-11668974219
Once again, we must note that the President does not have the authority to appropriate funds – that belongs to Congress. Nor does the President have the authority to approve treaties – that belongs to the Senate. (That’s why these treaties are called agreements or accords.) Either way, we again see a President acting like a King. 
 
“Dr. Anthony Fauci said the U.S. is “certainly” still in the middle of a Covid-19 pandemic and he is “very troubled” by the divisive state of American politics.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/27/the-us-is-certainly-still-in-a-covid-19-pandemic-dr-fauci-says.html
I am not a Fauci hater as many on the right seem to be. I wonder about his comment, though. My daughter, the ER Nurse, says that the biggest problem in her hospital now is the Flu. It is killing a lot of people (old, Infirm, immunocompromised); Covid is not. Nationwide, Covid numbers are in the general area of 40,000 cases per day. CDC reports that there have been 4.4-million Flu illnesses this season and it just got underway in the fall.
 


EXTREME READINGS FOR McCLELLAN OSCILLATOR FOR BONDS (McClellan Financial Publications)
“Very high readings in this particular RAMO are associated with topping events for T-Bond prices. That may not mean they top on the exact same day, but the point is that these are markers of price exhaustion...The point we should take from this chart is that the slight upturn in bond prices has exhausted itself, and we are more likely to see the downtrend in bond prices resume, rather than this being the start of a new price uptrend for bonds.

Analysis and charts from...
https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/extreme_reading_on_mcclellan_oscillator_for_bonds/
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Today was a statistically significant down-day. That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, down-day is followed by an up-day about 60% of the time.
 
It would have been good if the markets had shown some life in late-day action, but that was not to be.  The S&P 500 fell into the close as did all of the major indeces.
 
I’ll consider taking some profits if we see another big down-day tomorrow, but it is too early to panic. The lower trend line is around 3900, so a drop to that level woudn’t mean much as long as it holds.
 
On Fridays, I summarize a number of indicators to get a weekly feel for trend. The Friday rundown of indicators was very bullish (5-bear and 15-bull). For the most part, indicators remained bulish today, Monday, but that probably won’t last if this choppiness continues.
 
Today, the daily sum of 20 Indicators declined from +15 to +9 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations declined from +153 to +148. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce around a lot.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained BUY: VOLUME and SENTIMENT are neutral; VIX, & PRICE are bullish.  (The important Buy signal from this indicator ensemble was 21 October (7 days after the low); my first buy indication was on 21 September (2% above the low) based on analysis of retests of the June low.) 
 
Bottom line: I remain a Bull. I think the bottom was 3577 on 12 October. There is always the possibility that the markets could retest those lows, but it seems less likely that a retest will occur in 2022.
 
I’m now invested with about 75% of the portfolio invested in stocks. (As a retiree, 50% invested in stocks is my “normal” portfolio.) 75% stocks is uber-bullish and that’s as far as I’ll go.
 
BEST ETFs - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.

*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
XLE has taken the top position in the ETF momentum index. I own CVX so I already have good exposure to energy.

BEST DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD.
(Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 
 

...My current invested position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’ll cut back on stocks if we see serious bear signs.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF.
 

Best DOW Stocks ... Best ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
NASDAQ (IXIC) CONTINUES TO UNDER PERFORM

This is the year-to-date chart showing the DOW (DJI), S&P 500 (GSPC), Russell 2000 (RUT) and the NASDAQ (IXIC). NASDAQ is on the bottom; DOW is on the top.
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 slipped 1pt to 4026.
-VIX rose about 0.7% to 20. 50.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped to 3.688%.
 
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 16.1% as of today. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 226-days.
The S&P 500 is 0.8% Below its 200-dMA & 6.2% above its 50-dMA. (The last rally failed at the 200-dMA so I am watching this now.)
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area and I am fully invested with a higher percentage of stocks than normal.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLI – Industrial ETF (XLI still looks good to me. Nearly 10% of XLI is in Boeing and Caterpillar and they are both strong performers in the DOW momentum analysis.) 
QLD – 2x Nas 100
DDM – 2x Dow 30. I may sell DDM and replace it with SSO (2x S&P 500), but for now, the DOW 30 is still doing better than the S&P 500.
XLK – Technology ETF
 
CVX – (I may hold this as a long-term position. I already owned a small position in CVX.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
I mentioned a high daily sum of indicators Wednesday.  My list of 20 Indicators was 21.  That’s Bullish indicators minus Bearish and one might think that a sum larger than 20 would be impossible.  It would be, but there are a couple of indicators that get weighted at +2 or -2 in the summation list, depending on whether they are bullish or bearish, so a number greater than 20 is possible. I’ve never had a sum larger than 20...until Wednesday.
 
There was very low volume today, as expected.  Let’s look at the current Friday run-down of indicators.
 
On Fridays, I summarize a number of indicators to get a weekly feel for trend. The Friday rundown of indicators is still very bullish (5-bear and 15-bull). These indicators tend to be both long-term and short-term, so they are different than the 20 that I report on daily.
 
BULL SIGNS
-The 10-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is above 50%.
-Smoothed Buying Pressure minus Selling Pressure is rising.
-13 & 21 Oct were Bullish Outside Reversal Days with no Bearish Outside Reversal days since then.
-MACD of S&P 500 price made a bullish crossover 13 Oct.
-MACD of the percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (breadth) made a bullish crossover 26 Oct.
-Short-term new-high/new-low data.
-Long-term new-high/new-low data.
-Slope of the 40-dMA of New-highs is rising.
-On average, the size of up-moves has been larger than the size of down-moves over the last month.
-VIX indicator.
-10 and 11 Nov were high up-volume days at 87% and 77%. That’s close enough to back-to-back 80% up-volume days, so I’ll call this one bullish. There have not been any more extreme volume signals since then.
-Cyclical Industrials (XLI-ETF) are outpacing the S&P 500.
-The 5-10-20 Timer System is BUY; the 5-dEMA and 10-dEMA are both above the 20-dEMA. (The 5-day is above the 10-day so short-term momentum is bullish.)
-McClellan Oscillator.
-59% of the 15-ETFs that I track have been up over the last 10-days.
 
NEUTRAL
-Bollinger Bands.
-RSI
-There have been 10 up-days over the last 20 sessions – neutral.
-There have been 5 up-days over the last 10 sessions – neutral.
-The graph of the 100-day Count (the 100-day sum of up-days) is flat.
-The Smart Money (late-day action) is mixed.
-The short-term, 10-day, Fosback Hi-Low Logic Index.
-The longer-term, 50-dEMA, Fosback Hi-Low Logic Index is neutral.
-Issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) compared to the S&P 500 is neutral.
-Overbought/Oversold Index (Advance/Decline Ratio). 
-There was a Follow-through Day 10 November, but 1 is not enough to give a signal.
-There have been 2 Statistically-Significant days (big moves in price-volume) in the last 15-days.
-Sentiment.
-The Calm-before-the-Storm/Panic Indicator flashed a panic-buying signal 10 November - expired.
-The S&P 500 is 0.8% below its 200-dMA. (Bull indicator is 12% below the 200-day, although this is based on “normal” pullbacks.)
-There was an Inverse Zweig Breadth Collapse (negative Breadth Thrust) 21 June. That’s a rare, very-bearish sign, but it was a long time ago - expired.
-There was a Hindenburg Omen signal 8 April – expired.
-2.8% of all issues traded on the NYSE made new, 52-week highs when the S&P 500 made a new all-time-high, 3 January 2022. (There is no bullish signal for this indicator.) This indicated that the advance was too narrow and a correction was likely to be >10%. It proved correct, but is now Expired
-The 52-week, New-high/new-low ratio improved by 3.5 standard deviations. More simply, the spread between new-highs and new-lows improved by 716 on 14 October. That’s a solid bottom sign at a retest. – Expired.
-S&P 500 is outperforming the Utilities (XLU), but the spread is falling sharply so call it neutral.
 
BEAR SIGNS
-My Money Trend indicator is falling.
-The 50-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is below 50%.
-The 100-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is below 50%
-The 50-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) has been below 50%, for 3 days in a row below 50% giving me a “correction-now” signal. – Tell me something I didn’t know.
-The smoothed advancing volume on the NYSE is falling.
 
On Friday, 21 February, 2 days after the top before the Coronavirus pullback, there were 10 bear-signs and 1 bull-sign. Now there are 5 bear-signs and 15-Bull. Last week, there were 4 bear-signs and 19 bull-signs. Friday indicators remain at very bullish levels.
 
Today, the daily sum of 20 Indicators declined from +21 to +15 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from +149 to +153. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce around a lot.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained BUY: VOLUME and SENTIMENT are neutral; VIX, & PRICE are bullish.  (The important Buy signal from this indicator ensemble was 21 October (7 days after the low); my first buy indication was on 21 September (2% above the low) based on analysis of retests of the June low.) 
 
Bottom line: I remain a Bull. I think the bottom was 3577 on 12 October. There is always the possibility that the markets could retest those lows, but it seems less likely that a retest will occur in 2022.
 
I’m now invested with about 75% of the portfolio invested in stocks. (As a retiree, 50% invested in stocks is my “normal” portfolio.) 75% stocks is uber-bullish and that’s as far as I’ll go.
 
BEST ETFs - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
XLE has taken the top position in the ETF momentum index. I own CVX so I already have good exposure to energy.
 
BEST DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (RankedDaily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals slipped to HOLD.
(Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 
 

...My current invested position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’ll cut back on stocks if we see serious bear signs.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF.
 

FED Minutes ... New Home Sales ... Jobless Claims Best DOW Stocks ... Best ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“For decades we disagreed with [Supreme] Court rulings when progressives held sway, but we never called the Court illegitimate. But now that the left has lost the Court as a backup legislature for its policy goals, the institution is supposedly broken. Tell us again who is the threat to democratic institutions?” – WSJ Editorial Board.

Have a great Thanksgiving! The NYSE is closed for the Holiday, tomorrow, and will close at 1PM Friday.
 
FOMC MINUTES (CNBC)
“Minutes from the Fed’s November meeting signaled that the central bank is seeing progress in its fight against high inflation and is looking to slow the pace of rate hikes, meaning smaller ones through the end of this year and into 2023. ‘A substantial majority of participants judged that a slowing in the pace of increase would likely soon be appropriate,” the minutes stated.’”  Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/22/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html
 
NEW HOME SALES (YahooFinance)
“Sales of new U.S. single-family homes unexpectedly jumped in October, shrugging off rising mortgage rates and house prices, which have drastically eroded affordability. New home sales rebounded 7.5%...”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-home-sales-unexpectedly-rise-153351014.html
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (FoxBusiness)
“The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits unexpectedly ticked higher last week, hitting the highest level in three months. Figures released Wednesday by the Labor Department show initial claims for the week ended Nov. 19 rose to 240,000...” Story at...
https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/jobless-claims-unexpectedly-rise-highest-level-august
 
DURABLE ORDERS (FoxBusiness)
“The United States Census Bureau announced on Wednesday that new orders for manufactured durable goods increased in October, despite persistent inflation and global economic instability... Orders for overall durable goods also went up by 1%...” Story at...
https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/new-orders-us-durable-goods-increased-during-october-despite-inflation
 
TRUMP LOSES AGAIN (msn.com)
“Alaska Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski clinched reelection Wednesday, repelling a challenger backed by former President Donald Trump less than two years after Murkowski voted for conviction in Trump’s impeachment trial.” Story at...
Murkowski wins another Senate term in Alaska (msn.com)
 
ANOTHER BLOW TO THE SUPREME COURT (NY Times via msn.com)
“The New York Times reported that the Rev. Rob Schenck, a former anti-abortion activist, had spent years seeking influence at the Supreme Court, developing a network of top donors and court insiders. Schenck alleges that his sources formed close relationships with Thomas, Alito and Justice Antonin Scalia — bonds so close that one couple allegedly received a tipoff about the result in a major case, Burwell v. Hobby Lobby Stores, Inc., at a dinner with Alito and his wife.” Story at...
Opinion: Bombshell report deals another blow to the Supreme Court's reputation (msn.com)
 
There’s one problem with this hit piece...it may be completely made up.  It is not corroborated by any of the parties and justice Alito completely denies it. 
Here’s what the WSJ had to say in its piece titled, “Targeting Justice Alito”:
“To call this story uncorroborated is to overstate its credibility. Rob Schenck, a pastor who has since turned against his former evangelical allies, claims he heard from a woman who heard from Justice Alito at a dinner party in 2014 about the pending opinion in Burwell v. Hobby Lobby, a religious liberty case. Justice Alito denies leaking anything, and the woman denies hearing about it...This is another case of political intimidation in the service of undermining public confidence in the Court. The accusation is second-hand hearsay from a politically motivated source...The real reason Democrats are upset is because they’ve lost the Court as a backstop legislature for policies they can’t get through Congress.” Commentary at...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/targeting-justice-samuel-alito-rob-schenck-supreme-court-hobby-lobby-sheldon-whitehouse-11669154588
 
The above NYT/MSN article is extremely disturbing to me.  The Liberal Left, assisted by liberal media outlets, is trying to destroy the Supreme Court, while the right-wing hacks (Trump, Hannity, Lake, et al) and its media tools are undermining faith in elections, the foundation of a free society. None of this bodes well for the future of our country.  
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.6% to 4027.
-VIX slipped about another 4% to 20.35.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped to 3.700%.
 
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 16% as of today. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 225-days.
The S&P 500 is 0.8% Below its 200-dMA & 6.3% above its 50-dMA. (The last rally failed at the 200-dMA so I am watching this now.)
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area and I am fully invested with a higher percentage of stocks than normal.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLI – Industrial ETF (XLI still looks good to me. Nearly 10% of XLI is in Boeing and Caterpillar and they are both strong performers in the DOW momentum analysis.) 
QLD – 2x Nas 100
DDM – 2x Dow 30. I may sell DDM and replace it with SSO (2x S&P 500), but for now, the DOW 30 is still doing better than the S&P 500.
XLK – Technology ETF
 
CVX – (I may hold this as a long-term position. I already owned a small position in CVX.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Volume fell off as the day progressed so there’s not much to glean from today’s action...but I’ll try anyway. Technology continues to perform well. Indices don’t usually diverge for too long.  I have been wondering whether the Bulls or Bears would win.  The bulls need Technology to move higher.  That will boost the S&P 500 too and should carry the S&P 500 to new highs.  If Technology can’t “catch-up,” then the other major Indices (Dow and S&P 500) may follow Technology lower.  I don’t expect that to happen since I am still in the Bull camp.
 
The VIX fell again today.  The pundits on CNBC are talking about how the falling VIX is bearish, because when the last big rally peaked in August the VIX had fallen below 20. Frankly, they are just guessing. A falling VIX simply indicates less volatility and that can also be seen as bullish and that’s how I view it – bullish.
 
The indicator sums below are the highest I have seen since I started tracking my indicators and that data goes back to 2016.  It is really a bullish signal, but I do worry that when markets get too skewed way to one side, it could portend a reversal.  Let’s hope that’s not the case this time – for now, I’ll call it bullish.
 
Today, the daily sum of 20 Indicators improved from +19 to +21 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from +131 to +149. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce around a lot.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained BUY: SENTIMENT is neutral; VIX, VOLUME & PRICE are bullish.  (The important Buy signal from this indicator ensemble was 21 October (7 days after the low); my first buy indication was on 21 September (2% above the low) based on analysis of retests of the June low.) 
 
Bottom line: I remain a Bull. I think the bottom was 3577 on 12 October. There is always the possibility that the markets could retest those lows, but it seems less likely that a retest will occur in 2022.
 
I’m now invested with about 75% of the portfolio invested in stocks. (As a retiree, 50% invested in stocks is my “normal” portfolio.) 75% stocks is uber-bullish and that’s as far as I’ll go.
 
BEST ETFs - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
XLE has taken the top position in the ETF momentum index. I own CVX so I already have good exposure to energy.
 
BEST DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY.
(Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 
 

...My current invested position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’ll cut back on stocks if we see serious bear signs.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF.
 

Stock Market Analysis ... Best DOW Stocks ... Best ETFs …

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
SUPREME COURT CLEARS WAY FOR TRUMP TAX RECORDS TO BE SENT TO CONGRESS (CNBC)
“The Supreme Court rejected a bid by former President Donald Trump to prevent Congress from obtaining his income tax returns from the IRS...
...[Previously] Washington federal court Judge Trevor McFadden ruled against Trump, saying the committee had a right to the returns. “A long line of Supreme Court cases requires great deference two facially valid congressional inquiries. Even the special solicitude accorded former presidents does not alter the outcome,” McFadden wrote. “The committee need only state a valid legislative purpose,” McFadden wrote. “It has done so.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/22/supreme-court-rules-on-trump-tax-records-being-given-to-congress.html
No justices objected to allowing the records to be sent.
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 1.4% to 4004.
-VIX slipped about another 5% to 21.29.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped to 3.758%.
 
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 16.57% as of today. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 224-days.
The S&P 500 is 1.4% Below its 200-dMA & 5.7% above its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area and I am fully invested with a higher percentage of stocks than normal.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLI – Industrial ETF (XLI still looks good to me. Nearly 10% of XLI is in Boeing and Caterpillar and they are both strong performers in the DOW momentum analysis.) 
QLD – 2x Nas 100
DDM – 2x Dow 30. I may sell DDM and replace it with SSO (2x S&P 500), but for now, the DOW 30 is still doing better than the S&P 500.
XLK – Technology ETF
 
CVX – (I may hold this as a long-term position. I already owned a small position in CVX.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Many think the rally will fizzle and fall to new lows.  I don’t think we’ll see significant new lows; but it is possible that the S&P 500 could retest the September lows. Tech did very well today, up nearly 2%.  (The only sector that was better was energy, up over 3%.) If tech can keep going, this rally will have a lot longer to go and may outlast the FED, i.e., we’ll see new highs on the S&P 500.
 
Today, the daily sum of 20 Indicators improved from +16 to +19 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from +120 to +131. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce around a lot.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained BUY: SENTIMENT is neutral; VIX, VOLUME & PRICE are bullish.  (The important Buy signal from this indicator ensemble was 21 October (7 days after the low); my first buy indication was on 21 September (2% above the low) based on analysis of retests of the June low.) 
 
Bottom line: I remain a Bull. I think the bottom was 3577 on 12 October. There is always the possibility that the markets could retest those lows, but it seems less likely that a retest will occur in 2022.
 
I’m now invested with about 75% of the portfolio invested in stocks. (As a retiree, 50% invested in stocks is my “normal” portfolio.) 75% stocks is uber-bullish and that’s as far as I’ll go.
 
BEST ETFs - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
XLE has taken the top position in the ETF momentum index. I own CVX so I already have good exposure to energy.
 
BEST DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD.
(Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 
 

...My current invested position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’ll cut back on stocks if we see serious bear signs.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF.