Weekly Investment Strategy … Coronavirus (Covid-19) … Stock Market Analysis … ETF Trading … Dow 30 Ranking

"Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

 

"This imaginary person out there - Mr. Market - he's kind of a drunken psycho. Some days he gets very enthused, some days he gets very depressed. And when he gets really enthused, you sell to him and if he gets depressed you buy from him. There's no moral taint attached to that." - Warren Buffett

 

“The big money is not in the buying and selling. But in the waiting.” - Charlie Munger, Vice Chairman, Berkshire Hathaway

 

WEEKLY INVESTMENT STRATEGY (Raymond James)

“This week [ending 29 Aug], the S&P 500 hit all-time highs. Despite negative earnings growth, a record breaking 82% of companies beat 2Q earnings estimates and helped lift the equity market. Momentum and an earnings recovery is likely to support additional records into 2021, especially as the potential for record S&P 500 earnings (>$161.25 needed) in 2021 grows.”  Commentary at…

https://www.raymondjames.com/commentary-and-insights/larry-adam/2020/08/28/weekly-investment-strategy

 

CNN – YOU GOTTA LOVE EM

Peaceful? What’s that in the background? A barbeque?

CNN – Communist Nonsense Network

 

CORONAVIRUS (NTSM)

Here’s the latest from the COVID19 Johns Hopkins website at 5:55 Monday. Total US numbers are on the left axis; daily numbers are on the right side of the graph with the 10-dMA of daily numbers in Green.

 

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS         

-Monday the S&P 500 slipped about 0.2% to 3500.

-VIX rose about 15% to 26.41.

-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 0.711%.

 

Big-time bear signals remain that suggest a pullback, but perhaps not a full-fledged bear-market.

-The S&P 500 remained 13.8% above its 200-dMA. Values in the 10-15% range are sell-signal.

-Once again, the narrowness of the advance is confirmed. Only 2.6% of all issues traded on the NYSE made new, 52-week highs when the S&P 500 made a new, INTRA-DAY, all-time-high, Monday. All of the recent new-highs have shown an extremely narrow advance with minimal participation by issues other than a few big tech names. Very bearish.

-There have been 16 up-days over the last 20 days – a very bearish sign.

-We’ve seen 9 up-days over the last 10-days – a bearish sign.

-RSI remained overbought.

 

The daily sum of 20 Indicators declined from +4 to zero (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish). The 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations declined from +2 to +1. (These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late.) Most of these indicators are short-term and many are trend following, i.e., they are not top-indicators, so they are not as bearish as one might expect.

 

I remain bearish in the short and intermediate term. I have a very small Short-position.

 

MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:

TODAY’S RANKING OF  15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF. 

*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…

http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

 

TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

“The Dow welcomed three new components: Honeywell (HON), Salesforce (CRM) and Amgen (AMGN). And it said goodbye to ExxonMobil (XOM), Pfizer (PFE) and Raytheon (RTN).” Story at…

https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/31/investing/dow-apple-tesla-stock-market-today/index.html

Here’s the revised DOW 30 and its momentum analysis. We note that Salesforce (CRM) is outpacing Apple in momentum. The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.

 

For more details, see NTSM Page at…

https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

 

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

Market Internals remained NEUTRAL on the market.

Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index. 

 

Using the Short-term indicator in 2018 in SPY would have made a 5% gain instead of a 6% loss for buy-and-hold. The methodology was Buy on a POSITIVE indication and Sell on a NEGATIVE indication and stay out until the next POSITIVE indication. The back-test included 13-buys and 13-sells, or a trade every 2-weeks on average.  

 

My current stock allocation is about 30% invested in stocks. You may wish to have a higher or lower % invested in stocks depending on your risk tolerance. 30% is a very conservative position that I re-evaluate daily. The XLE has been a loser for me since I was too early. It is still yielding over 10%, so I have to remind myself to be patient.

 

As a retiree, 50% in the stock market is about fully invested for me – it is a cautious and conservative number. If I feel very confident, I might go to 60%; had we seen a successful retest of the bottom, 80% would not have been out of the question.

Personal Spending … Personal Income … PCE Prices … Chicago PMI … Michigan Sentiment … Stock Market Options at Dot.com Levels … Stock Market Insanity – A Tale of Two Bull Markets … Coronavirus (Covid-19) … Stock Market Analysis … ETF Trading … Dow 30 Ranking

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

 

"This imaginary person out there - Mr. Market - he's kind of a drunken psycho. Some days he gets very enthused, some days he gets very depressed. And when he gets really enthused, you sell to him and if he gets depressed you buy from him. There's no moral taint attached to that." - Warren Buffett

 

“The big money is not in the buying and selling. But in the waiting.” - Charlie Munger, Vice Chairman, Berkshire Hathaway

 

PERSONAL SPENDING / INCOME / PCE PRICES (MarketWatch)

“Americans increased spending in July for the third month in a row, but at a much slower pace in a sign that an economic rebound from the coronavirus pandemic lost some steam. Personal spending rose 1.9% last month…Incomes rose 0.4% largely because of government payments to businesses to keep employees on payrolls…A closely watched measure of inflation, meanwhile, posted the second big increase in a row. The PCE index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation barometer, rose 0.3% after a 0.5% gain in the prior month.” Story at…

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/consumer-spending-slows-in-july-as-economic-recovery-loses-some-momentum-2020-08-28

 

CHICAGO PMI (FxStreet)

“The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index released by ISM-Chicago edged lower to 51.2 in August from 51.9 in July. This reading missed the market expectation of 52 and showed an expansion in the private sector's economic activity at a softer pace…” Story at… 

https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-chicago-pmi-declines-to-512-in-august-vs-52-expected-202008281357

 

MICHIGAN SENTIMENT (Advisor Perspectives)

“Consumer sentiment has remained trendless in the same depressed range it has traveled during the past five months. The August figure posted an insignificant gain of just +0.4 Index points above the April to July average.” Commentary at… 

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2020/08/28/michigan-consumer-sentiment-august-final-trendless

 

OPTIONS AT DOT.COM LEVELS (Marketwatch)

“Bespoke [Investment Group] writes that it is difficult to predict when a market slide might occur but notes that the degree to which leveraged bets have been made on further upside might magnify the downturn should a bearish catalyst arise. ‘In any event, the prevalence of call buying is in our view a clear-cut signal that sentiment is extended after a blistering equity market rally since March,’ the analysts wrote.” Story at…

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/options-bets-that-the-stock-market-will-continue-to-soar-have-exploded-to-dot-com-bubble-levels-11598558379?mod=home-page

 

INSANITY (Real Investment Advice)

“Notably, each time of the 5-times previously, going back to 1999, where the market traded at 2-standard deviations or higher from the 4-year moving average, a reversion occurred. Those periods were 2000, 2007, 2014, 2018, February 2020, and now.” - Lance Roberts. Commentary, “A Tale of Two Bull Markets,” at …

https://realinvestmentadvice.com/macroview-a-tale-of-two-bull-markets/

 

CORONAVIRUS (NTSM)

Here’s the latest from the COVID19 Johns Hopkins website at 5:50 Friday. Total US numbers are on the left axis; daily numbers are on the right side of the graph with the 10-dMA of daily numbers in Green.

 

 

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS         

-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.7% to 3508, another all-time high.

-VIX dropped about 6% to 22.96.

-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 0.720%.

 

Looks like the FED may hold this market up forever, even while there are significant bear signs.

 

Here’s the Friday run-down of some important indicators. These tend to be both long-term and short-term so they are somewhat different than the 20 that I report on daily.

 

BULL SIGNS

-The 50-dMA and the 100-dMA of stocks advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) are above 50%.

-The size of up-moves has been larger than the size of down-moves over the last month.

-VIX is falling steeply.

-The 5-10-20 Timer System remained BUY, because the 5-dEMA and 10-dMA are above the 20-dEMA. 

-MACD of S&P 500 price made a bullish crossover 24 August.

-The Smart Money (late-day action) is mildly bullish. This indicator is based on the Smart Money Indicator (a variant of the indicator developed by Don Hayes).

-The smoothed advancing volume on the NYSE turned bullish.

-The S&P 500 is outperforming the Utilities ETF (XLU). Seems like no one wants to own utilities now.

 

NEUTRAL

-Overbought/Oversold Index, a measure of advance-decline data is neutral. It was overbought Monday, but I’ll call it neutral since it has dropped.

-Non-crash Sentiment is neutral.

-Breadth on the NYSE vs the S&P 500 index diverged from the S&P 500 index and has been giving a sell signal since 11 May. 31 July it finally turned neutral.

-Statistically, the S&P 500 gave a panic-signal, 11 June. A panic signal usually suggests more to come.  We did not see big negative follow-thru so I’ll put this one in the neutral category.

-The Fosback High-Low Logic Index is neutral.

-Cyclical Industrials (XLI-ETF) are outperforming the S&P 500 – but not by enough to send a signal.

-Only 50% of the 15-ETFs that I track have been up over the last 10-days – neutral.

-The percentage of 15-ETFs that are above their respective 120-dMA was 93% Friday. I put it in neutral because I don’t have the background on this indicator.

 

BEAR SIGNS

-The S&P 500 is 13.8% above its 200-dMA. Values in the 10-15% range are sell-signal.

-Only 2.3% of all issues traded on the NYSE made new, 52-week highs when the S&P 500 made a new all-time-high, Friday. All of the recent new-highs have shown an extremely narrow advance with minimal participation by issues other than a few big tech names. Very bearish.

-There have been 16 up-days over the last 20 days…

-We’ve seen 9 up-days over the last 10-days. These are separate indicators.

-Bollinger Bands finally gave an overbought reading.

-RSI overbought signal as of Friday. Together with Bollinger Bands this is a strong indication of the start of a pullback.

-MACD of stocks advancing on the NYSE (breadth) made a bearish crossover 31 July.

-Long-term new-high/new-low data is bearish.

-Short-term new-high/new-low data is bearish.

-The 10-dMA of stocks advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is below 50%.

-My Money Trend indicator is mildly bearish.

 

On Friday, 21 February, 2 days after the top of the Coronavirus pullback, there were 10 bear-signs and 1 bull-sign. Now there are 11 bear-signs and 5 bull-signs. Last week, there were 12 bear-signs and 8 bull-signs.

 

Some of the new Bear signs are important ones, such as Bollinger Bands and RSI.

 

The daily sum of 20 Indicators declined from +6 to +4 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish). The 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations declined from +5 to +2. (These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late.) Most of these indicators are short-term and many are trend following, i.e., they are not top-indicators, so they are reflecting the overly bullish market.

 

I remain bearish in the short and intermediate term. I have a very small Short-position.

 

MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:

TODAY’S RANKING OF  15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF. 

*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…

http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

 

TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock. (I’ll revamp the DOW 30 ranking to match the new stocks added when I get a chance.  It’s a big effort. With the Apple 4 for 1 split, several stocks in the DOW 30 have been dropped with new ones added to keep the index representative with the overall market.)

For more details, see NTSM Page at…

https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

 

FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

Market Internals remained NEUTRAL on the market.

Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index. 

 

Using the Short-term indicator in 2018 in SPY would have made a 5% gain instead of a 6% loss for buy-and-hold. The methodology was Buy on a POSITIVE indication and Sell on a NEGATIVE indication and stay out until the next POSITIVE indication. The back-test included 13-buys and 13-sells, or a trade every 2-weeks on average.  

 

My current stock allocation is about 30% invested in stocks. You may wish to have a higher or lower % invested in stocks depending on your risk tolerance. 30% is a very conservative position that I re-evaluate daily. The XLE has been a loser for me since I was too early. It is still yielding over 10%, so I have to remind myself to be patient.

 

As a retiree, 50% in the stock market is about fully invested for me – it is a cautious and conservative number. If I feel very confident, I might go to 60%; had we seen a successful retest of the bottom, 80% would not have been out of the question.

Jobless Claims … GDP … All is Not Well (with the Stock Market) … Coronavirus (Covid-19) … Stock Market Analysis … ETF Trading … Dow 30 Ranking

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

 

“The big money is not in the buying and selling. But in the waiting.” - Charlie Munger, Vice Chairman, Berkshire Hathaway

 

JOBLESS CLAIMS (CNBC)

“The number of Americans who filed for unemployment benefits for the first time came in above 1 million for the 22nd time in 23 weeks as the economy struggles to recover from the coronavirus pandemic, the Labor Department said Thursday. Initial U.S. jobless claims totaled just over 1 million for the week ending Aug. 22…” Story at…

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/27/weekly-jobless-claims.html

 

GDP-2ND EST (Marketwatch)

“The historic plunge in gross domestic product in the second quarter was revised down slightly to show a 31.7% annual decline, underscoring the devastation to the economy spawned by the coronavirus pandemic.” Story at…

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-economys-historic-slump-in-the-second-quarter-lowered-to-a-317-annual-pace-gdp-shows-2020-08-27

 

ALL IS NOT WELL (Heritage Capital, commentary excerpt)

“…one of my favorite canaries in the coal mine below, [is] the New York Stock Exchange Advance/Decline Line which measures participation…something definitely changed a few weeks ago. The S&P 500 in the upper chart has been rallying as you know. The problem is that the NYSE A/D Line below it has been going down. Something ain’t right and all is not well my friends…

…conditions like this can persist. The difference maker this time around is the Fed. Never before in history has a Fed created such a tsunami of liquidity in our financial system so quickly and so widespread. Obviously, we can’t ignore this nor underestimate the power of the Fed when they decide to go all in. If history is still a valid guide, we know that this won’t end well, but the timing is going to be more difficult than ever although timing is always the hardest part.” – Paul  Schatz, President Heritage Capital.

https://investfortomorrow.com/blog/everything-is-hunky-dory-apple-a-selling-opp/

 

CORONAVIRUS (NTSM)

Here’s the latest from the COVID19 Johns Hopkins website at 5:05 Thursday. Total US numbers are on the left axis; daily numbers are on the right side of the graph with the 10-dMA of daily numbers in Green.

 

 

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS         

-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 0.2% to 3485, another all-time high.

-VIX rose about 5% to 24.47.  (The Options Boys are worried; VIX was UP today (again) along with the Index. That doesn’t happen often.)

-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 0.755%.

 

I am tired of repeating bearish indicators.  There are many, as I have listed in recent blogs. Not much has changed, though we did add another warning sign today.

 

There have only been 4 down-days in the last 2 weeks. That is a rare, bearish, sell-signal. The last time it we saw 4-down-days in a month, the S&P 500 dropped 7%. Looking back to 2017, however, there were some bunched signals then that did not result in a drop, so this indicator isn’t infallible (none are).

 

The most compelling bear signal is that the S&P 500 is 13.1% above its 200-dMA. Values in the 10-15% range are sell-signal. As the market stretches higher, a bigger fall becomes more likely.

 

The daily sum of 20 Indicators improved from +2 to +6 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish). The 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from +2 to +5. (These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late.) Most of these indicators are short-term and many are trend following, i.e., they are not top-indicators, so they are reflecting the overly bullish market.

 

I have been surprised at how long the markets have been able to advance, especially in the last  week or so. One wonders can the FED prevent a correction? The answer is, “not forever”, but perhaps they’ll be able to hold it off longer than I expected.

 

I remain bearish in the short and intermediate term. I have a very small Short-position.

 

MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:

TODAY’S RANKING OF  15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF. 

*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…

http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

 

TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.

For more details, see NTSM Page at…

https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

 

THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

Market Internals improved to NEUTRAL on the market.

Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index. 

 

Using the Short-term indicator in 2018 in SPY would have made a 5% gain instead of a 6% loss for buy-and-hold. The methodology was Buy on a POSITIVE indication and Sell on a NEGATIVE indication and stay out until the next POSITIVE indication. The back-test included 13-buys and 13-sells, or a trade every 2-weeks on average.  

 

My current stock allocation is about 30% invested in stocks. You may wish to have a higher or lower % invested in stocks depending on your risk tolerance. 30% is a very conservative position that I re-evaluate daily. The XLE has been a loser for me since I was too early. It is still yielding over 10%, so I have to remind myself to be patient.

 

As a retiree, 50% in the stock market is about fully invested for me – it is a cautious and conservative number. If I feel very confident, I might go to 60%; had we seen a successful retest of the bottom, 80% would not have been out of the question.

Durable Goods Orders … EIA Crude Inventories … Masks Work ... Job Openings Falling … Coronavirus (Covid-19) … Stock Market Analysis … ETF Trading … Dow 30 Ranking

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

 

“The big money is not in the buying and selling. But in the waiting.” - Charlie Munger, Vice Chairman, Berkshire Hathaway

 

DURABLE GOODS ORDERS (MarketWatch)

“Orders for durable goods lasting at least three years surged 11.2% in July largely because of strong consumer demand for new cars and trucks, but business spending outside the auto industry was softer and investment grew more slowly.” Story at…

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-durable-goods-orders-leap-112-in-july-on-strong-demand-for-autos-and-cars-2020-08-26

 

EIA CRUDE INVENTORIES (Energy Information Administration)

“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 4.7 million barrels from the previous week. At 507.8 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 15% above the five year average for this time of year.” Press release at…

http://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf

 

MASKS WORK (S.C. Dept of Health & Env. Control)

“Wearing a mask every day in public is critical, however, not all face coverings provide the same protection. A recent study by Duke University shows that neck gaiters may be among the least effective types of face coverings for preventing the spread of respiratory droplets.”

https://www.scdhec.gov/news-releases/update-mask-requirement-data-reinforces-masks-work-neck-gaiters-not-effective-latest

 

JOB OPENINGS (TracktheRecovery.org)

Charts and interesting data at…

https://www.tracktherecovery.org/

 

My cmt: Job openings are considered a good “tell” for the economy. This is not a good sign and may suggest a double-dip recession. Similar worries were shown in some of the other charts, such as Small Business revenue, Small Business closings, etc.

 

CORONAVIRUS (NTSM)

Here’s the latest from the COVID19 Johns Hopkins website at 6:15 Wednesday. Total US numbers are on the left axis; daily numbers are on the right side of the graph with the 10-dMA of daily numbers in Green.

 

 

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS         

-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 1% to 3479, another all-time high.

-VIX rose about 6% to 23.27.  (The Options Boys are worried; VIX was UP today along with the Index. That doesn’t happen often.)

-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 0.697%.

 

Bollinger Bands were “overbought” and RSI was only a whisker short of “overbought.” We keep seeing more negative signs while buying continues in the major indices, but the majority of issues on the NYSE are falling.   

 

Only 46% of issues on the NYSE advanced in the last 2-weeks. Stated another way, less than half the issues on the NYSE have gone up over the last 2-weeks and the market keeps powering higher – not likely to last much longer. Only 51% of issues have gone up over the last 150-days. (If it drops below 50%, I’ll blow Taps.

 

Today was a statistically significant up-day. That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, up-day is followed by a down-day about 60% of the time.  Statistically-significant, up-days almost always coincide with tops, but not all statistically-significant, up-days occur at tops. I suspect this is the top, because we see even more bearish evidence today. Even the charts are turning sour. The S&P 500 chart looks parabolic now.

 

VIX was up 6% today, a bearish sign given that the S&P 500 was up too. Also, the 7-day ROC of VIX crossed above zero. That is a bearish sign, too. “An upward crossing through zero often (but not always) marks an important top for stock prices.” – Tom McMillan. We saw a bounce above zero back in May with no downturn. Now we see a lot of other bearish indicators, so it’s time to pay attention (if you weren’t already) for those who have been riding the rising tide of stock prices.

 

At today’s S&P 500 all-time high, we saw the only 3% of issues on the NYSE make 52-week, new-highs. In the last 4 days, we’ve seen 4 new all-time highs for the Index and on 3 of those days we’ve seen the following % of issues on the NYSE make 52-week, new-highs: 2.97%, 2.7% and 2.2%. Any number below 3% is bearish stuff. See prior blogs for more details.

 

The S&P 500 is 13% above its 200-dMA. Values in the 10-15% range are sell-signal. As the market stretches higher, a bigger fall becomes more likely.

 

Another warning sign today: there have only been 5 down-days in the last 2 weeks. That’s mildly bearish; one more up-day, Thursday, will throw this indicator into a rare, very-bearish, sell-signal. The last time it we saw 4-down-days in a month, the S&P 500 dropped 7%.

 

The daily sum of 20 Indicators improved from -2 to +2 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish). The 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations slipped from +6 +2. (These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late.) Most of these indicators are short-term and many are trend following, i.e., they are not top-indicators, so they are reflecting the overly bullish market.

 

I remain bearish in the short and intermediate term. I think, it’s time to Short.

 

I have been surprised at how long the markets have been able to advance, but soon (maybe starting tomorrow) ...

 

 

 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:

TODAY’S RANKING OF  15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF. 

*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…

http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

 

TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.

For more details, see NTSM Page at…

https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

 

WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

Market Internals remained NEGATIVE on the market.

Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index. 

 

Using the Short-term indicator in 2018 in SPY would have made a 5% gain instead of a 6% loss for buy-and-hold. The methodology was Buy on a POSITIVE indication and Sell on a NEGATIVE indication and stay out until the next POSITIVE indication. The back-test included 13-buys and 13-sells, or a trade every 2-weeks on average.  

 

My current stock allocation is about 30% invested in stocks. You may wish to have a higher or lower % invested in stocks depending on your risk tolerance. 30% is a very conservative position that I re-evaluate daily. The XLE has been a loser for me since I was too early. It is still yielding over 10%, so I have to remind myself to be patient.

 

As a retiree, 50% in the stock market is about fully invested for me – it is a cautious and conservative number. If I feel very confident, I might go to 60%; had we seen a successful retest of the bottom, 80% would not have been out of the question.