Saturday, March 31, 2018

Stock Market Analysis … ETF Trading … Dow 30 Ranking

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS         
-Thursday the S&P 500 was Up about 1.4% to 2641.
-VIX was Down about 13% to 19.97. 
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 2.742%. (Investors were buying bonds driving yields down. Hard to say what this might mean for stocks.)  
 
Correction Update:
Thursday was trading-day 44 since the prior top. The S&P 500 was 8.1% below the top and 2.3% above the prior correction bottom.  On average, corrections >10% last 68-days…<10% last 32-days. Day-40 was the recent retest for the DJI and the NYSE Composite.
 
Today was a pre-Holiday trading day which tends to be positive with lower volume. Exchanges were closed Friday. Volume Friday was about average for the month which for a holiday is unusually high. The last day of the month is usually strong along with the first couple of days in the next month. There was also a lot of position shifting by Fund Managers since it was the last day of the quarter. All of those may have contributed to the strong up day. On the other hand, perhaps investors are getting over the correction.
 
Both the DOW 30 and the 15 ETFs I track have been improving. 5-days ago when the S&P 500 came within 0.3% of a retest of the prior low, zero stocks in the Dow 30 were up on the day and only 1 of the ETFs was up. Today every ETF was up and 25 of the 30 Dow stocks were up. Intel was up 5%. These are bullish signs. 
 
Generally, indicators are improving too:
-My daily sum of 17 Indicators improved from -4 to +3; that’s a nice turn-around. The 10-day smoothed version remained flat at -43.
-Money Trend is turning up.
-Smart Money (based on late day action) is basically flat to slightly down.
-The cyclical industrials are trying to reverse upward compared to the S&P 500.  If it continues that would be a bullish sign.
-Market Internals remained Neutral, but generally improved.
 
My analysis is based on the S&P 500.  The S&P 500 almost tested the prior low on 23 March when it was 2588.  That’s only 0.3% higher than the low of 2581 on 8 February. Interestingly, the NYSE Composite did make a lower low on 23 March and it was about 0.8% lower than the prior low. The DOW 30 also made a lower low. We prefer a test based on the S&P 500 since S&P 500 stocks are stronger and more conservative, but since it was very close to a retest and the Composite did retest successfully, I think we should consider leaning to the bullish side and adding to stock holdings next week if it looks right.
 
81% of all volume was up-volume in Thursday.  That’s a bullish sign. Given the high up volume and my other somewhat bullish signs, I’ll be watching Monday’s action and further into next week for clues on changing from defensive position to an outright BUY.
 
Basically, I will add to stock holdings if we see strong buying next week. If it looks weak, I’ll just wait and see if a better entry point shows up.
 
Right now, the key is Monday.  If we see another very strong day the correction is probably over. We’ll see,
 
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS IS NOW NEARLY WORTHLESS. As one can see below in both momentum charts, most of the issues I track are now in negative territory, i.e., few have any upward momentum. That’s just an indication that the market is in correction mode and most stocks have been headed down.
 
TODAY’S RANKING OF  15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.  While momentum isn’t stock performance per se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked in the top 3 Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted correctly.) XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system. For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals improved and remained Neutral on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.  In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on Negative – no shorting). 
 
INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR
We may get a BUY signal this week so stay tuned.
21 March, I cut stock holdings from 50% to 35% with the remainder in a mix of stocks and (mostly short-term) bonds. I previously reduced stock exposure on 31 Jan.
 
Intermediate/Long-Term Model: Thursday, Price was positive; the VIX and Volume indicators were negative; and Sentiment was neutral.

Thursday, March 29, 2018

Personal Spending … PCE Prices … Jobless Claims … Chicago PMI … ECRI Indicators Turn Down … Stock Market Analysis … ETF Trading … Dow 30 Ranking

I’ll add the analysis later – I want to look at some numbers in more detail.
 
PERSONAL SPENDING (Reuters)
“U.S. consumer spending rose marginally for a second straight month in February as households boosted savings, the latest indication the economy lost momentum in the first quarter.” Story at…
This is thought to be the FED’s favorite inflation gauge.
 
PCE PRICES (CNBC)
“There was also a moderation in monthly inflation readings after prices pushed higher in January. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index excluding the volatile food and energy components rose 0.2 percent last month after advancing 0.3 percent in January. That lifted the year-on-year increase in the so-called core PCE price index to 1.6 percent, the biggest gain since February 2017…” Story at…
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (MarketWatch)
“Initial U.S. jobless claims declined by 12,000 to 215,000 in the seven days ended March 24…” story at…
 
CHICAGO PMI (Peoples Pundit Daily)
“The MNI Chicago Business Barometer (PMI) unexpectedly fell 4.5 points to 57.4 in March, down from 61.9 in February, hitting the lowest level in exactly one year. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said growth in the Barometer, which has been extraordinarily strong, moderated for a third straight month.” Story at…
 
MICHIGAN SENTIMENT (Bloomberg)
“Consumer sentiment in March reached the highest level since 2004 as a solid labor market and growth expectations offset concerns about tariffs and stock-market volatility, a University of Michigan survey showed Thursday.” Story at…
 
ECRI LEADING INDICATORS TURN DOWN (Financial Sense)
Right now, ECRI's leading indicators are pointing down, both for the United States and for the global economy. “The growth rates of our long leading indicators have turned down,” he said. “That tells us that the synchronized global growth upturn that we've all been enjoying last year is drawing to a close and in fact may already be over.” ECRI’s approach is to look at a large array of leading indexes, with each leading index a composite of a handful of good leading indicators of the current cycle. Their long leading index provides a three to four quarters lead, on average, at turning points, he noted.” Commentary at…
Let’s hope their indicators are more accurate this time.  They famously called a recession a few years back. It was famously wrong.

Wednesday, March 28, 2018

GDP – Third Estimate … Home Sales … Crude Inventories … Stock Market Analysis … ETF Trading … Dow 30 Ranking

GDP (MarketWatch)
“The pace of growth in the economy in the fourth quarter of 2017 was boosted to 2.9% from 2.5%, reflecting the biggest increase in consumer spending in three years and higher investment in business inventories.” Story at…
 
HOME SALES (Bloomberg)
“A gauge of signed contracts to purchase previously-owned U.S. homes increased in February for the first time in three months, highlighting uneven progress in the industry, according to data released Wednesday from the National Association of Realtors in Washington.” Story at…
 
CRUDE INVENTORIES (OilPrice.com)
“The American Petroleum Institute (API) has reported a major surprise build of 5.321 million barrels of U.S. crude oil inventories for the week ending March 23, with the market expected to respond by erasing last week’s gains.” Story at…
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS         
-Wednesday the S&P 500 was DOWN about 0.3% to 2605.
-VIX was UP about 2% to 22.87. 
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 2.783%.
 
Major drops on 23 & 27 March, when compared to the prior correction bottom, have exhibited improving market internals.  This could be signaling that fear is subsiding and perhaps this correction could end sooner; however, we still need to test the low and it is always possible that panic conditions will occur when we get there. We’ll have to wait it out.
 
Here are a few technical issues:
-My daily sum of 17 Indicators improved from -7 to -4, but the 10-day smoothed version fell from -36 to -43. Negative totals for indicators are bearish and the smoothed trend is down.
-Money Trend is still falling.
-Smart Money (based on late day action) is basically flat.
-Over the last 10 days, only 43% of stocks on the NYSE have advanced and 41% of the volume has been up-volume.
-The cyclical industrials are slipping compared to the S&P 500.  That happens when investors are worried, so this signal is bearish.
-The 5-day Sentiment was 85%-bulls Tuesday. That’s a bearish number, but not yet signaling an outright sell.
 
One bullish signal: Market Internals improved to Neutral.
 
Correction Update:
Today was trading-day 43 since the prior top. The S&P 500 is 9.3% below the top and 0.8% above the prior correction bottom.  The prior low was 10.1% rom the top. In recent years, on average corrections >10% last 68-days…<10% last 32-days.
 
Right now, everyone seems to think we’ll see a retest of the low and that it will be successful; then we see a bounce up. When everyone thinks one thing will happen, what usually happens is something completely different. We’ll see.
 
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS IS NOW NEARLY WORTHLESS. As one can see below in both momentum charts, most of the issues I track are now in negative territory, i.e., few have any upward momentum. That’s just an indication that the market is in correction mode and most stocks have been headed down.
 
TODAY’S RANKING OF  15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.  While momentum isn’t stock performance per se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked in the top 3 Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted correctly.) XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system. For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals improved to Neutral on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.  In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on Negative – no shorting). 
 
INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR
21 March, I cut stock holdings from 50% to 35% with the remainder in a mix of stocks and (mostly short-term) bonds. (A comparable TSP allocation would be 35% in the S&P 500 Index fund (C-Fund) with the remainder 65% G-Fund (Government securities). Previously, I had reduced holdings on 31 Jan.
 
Intermediate/Long-Term Model: Wednesday, the VIX and Volume indicators were negative; Price and Sentiment were neutral.

Tuesday, March 27, 2018

Consumer Confidence … Technical Breakdown … Technically Speaking Excerpt … Stock Market Analysis … ETF Trading … Dow 30 Ranking

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (Bloomberg)
“U.S. consumer confidence declined in March for the first time this year on tempered optimism about the outlook for the economy, according to figures Tuesday from the New York-based Conference Board.” Story at…
My cmt: Probably related to the stock market. Consumers don’t like corrections.
 
TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN (MarketWatch)
“The stock market surged on Monday but relinquished nearly all of those gains on Tuesday. That is not a good sign. U.S. stocks already are coming off the biggest weekly decline in more than two years, and the aftermath of that drop has market technicians warning that major indexes are on the verge of a full-fledged, technical breakdown.” Story at…
 
TECHNICALLY SPEAKING EXCERPT (Real Investment Advice)
“With the market oversold, we are looking for a rally to the 100-dma [about 2693 Tuesday] to further rebalance portfolio risks. (We have been doing this already over the last several weeks and have been underweight equity and overweight cash.) However, my guess is we are not likely done with this correctionary process as of yet.” – Lance Roberts. Commentary at…
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS         
-Tuesday the S&P 500 was DOWN about 1.7% to 2613.
-VIX was UP about 7% to 22.5. 
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 2.776%. (Traders were buying Treasuries today.)
 
There have been 3-days in this correction that have exhibited extreme downside-volume, all within 33 trading-days.  Based on market history, this is an extremely bearish sign.  So far, we have not seen an upside reversal that has shown the type of up-volume required to suggest a reversal and end to the correction. Other signs have been absent too.  Breadth is not overly positive and not indicative of a reversal; the Index has not yet tested (matched or fallen below) the prior low at the close. I still can’t call a correction end yet. Given the high sentiment I noted in Monday’s blog, we could have a lot further to go.
 
I imagine a lot of investors felt the correction was over after Monday’s big jump up.  Unfortunately, these types of extreme moves are not all that uncommon in a falling market. In fact, most really big down-moves, like Monday’s, happen in down markets. All this begs the question, “Where do we go from here?” The problem is, we don’t really know until we get some more clues. We continue to wait for a reversal or a test of the prior low.
 
Here are a few technical issues:
-My daily sum of 17 Indicators improved from -11 to -7, but the 10-day smoothed version fell from -26 to -36. Negative totals for indicators are bearish and the smoothed trend is down.
 
The S&P 500 is now 9.1% from the prior high and about 1% above the prior low.
 
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS IS NOW NEARLY WORTHLESS. As one can see below in both momentum charts, most of the issues I track are now in negative territory, i.e., few have any upward momentum. That’s just an indication that the market is in correction mode and most stocks have been headed down.
 
TODAY’S RANKING OF  15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.  While momentum isn’t stock performance per se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked in the top 3 Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted correctly.) XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system. For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals remained Negative on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.  In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on Negative – no shorting). 
 
CURRENT PERCENTAGE IN STOCKS
21 March, I cut stock holdings from 50% to 35% with the remainder in a mix of stocks and (mostly short-term) bonds. (A comparable TSP allocation would be 35% in the S&P 500 Index fund (C-Fund) with the remainder 65% G-Fund (Government securities). Previously, I had reduced holdings on 31 Jan.
 
Tuesday, the VIX and Volume indicators were negative; Price and Sentiment were neutral.

Monday, March 26, 2018

Bear Market in 2019 … Top May Be in for This Year (Morgan Stanley) … Buy the Dips (Wells Fargo) … Stock Market Analysis … ETF Trading … Dow 30 Ranking


xxx
I am changing the graphics in the way I present my analysis.  In the past I have shown the long-term model output with a BUY SELL or HOLD graphic.  Recently, the outputs have been at odds with my positions.  I have gotten very conservative while my long-term model was indicating Hold and jumped back in while the model indicated HOLD or SELL. This is due to improvements in my short-term modeling, but it is confusing. Therefore, in the future I will discuss the model, but I am going to show long-term %-invested in stocks with new graphics rather than presenting what the long-term model is showing.
xxx
 
“I expect the S&P 500 to lose approximately two-thirds of its value over the completion of this cycle. My impression is that future generations will look back on this moment and say ‘... and this is where they completely lost their minds.’” – John Hussman, PhD.
 
BEAR MARKET IN 2019 (Financial Sense)
 “Historically, momentum peaks up to a year ahead of final price action. So, yes, we are entering that final phase of the bull market. We think it's going to make selection that much more important, but we do think the bull market is still intact.” In short, if the market's momentum peaked this year, we should expect the final price high to occur roughly a year later in 2019.” Ari Wald, Oppenheimer. Commentary at…
 
TOP MAY BE IN FOR THIS YEAR – MORGAN STANLEY (CNBC)
Stocks could struggle for the rest of the year to break above January's record levels as volatility picks up and sentiment dwindles, according to a top strategist from Morgan Stanley. "With volatility moving higher we think it will be difficult for institutional clients to gross up to or beyond the January peaks," Mike Wilson, the bank's chief U.S. equity strategist, wrote in a note Monday [19 March]. Story at… 
 
RISK OF INSTITUTIONAL CAPITULATION (Zerohedge)
“JPM had noted that no matter what retail investors did, institutions appeared to have no interest in re-entering the market, on the contrary, they appeared to be quietly liquidating  to retail investors…According to the JPM strategist "the biggest near-term risk for equity markets is a breach of the lows we saw on Thursday, Feb 8th" and adds that "anecdotally, during that Thursday, fundamental equity investors came close to capitulation, so revisiting these lows raises the risk of capitulation, in our view, and thus of a more serious correction beyond the 10% decline seen between January 26th and February 8th." – JP Morgan. Commentary at…
Not everyone is negative…
 
BUY THE DIPS (CNBC)
"We're trying to get our clients to buy on these pullbacks," Scott Wren, senior global equity strategist at Wells Fargo, told CNBC's "Futures Now" recently. "We think this thing still has some upside the rest of the year." – Wells Fargo. Story at…
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS         
-Monday the S&P 500 was UP about 2.7% to 2659.
-VIX was DOWN about 15% to 21.03. 
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury was up some to 2.855%.
 
We saw a huge rise in Price today, but I can’t call a buy yet. 85% of volume was up today.  That’s a strong number, but not enough on a one-day basis to signal a buy. Another strong up-volume day and I’ll be there. Breadth was strong, too - 77% of stocks advanced on the NYSE – but again, that’s not enough to signal a reversal. Bottom line: We’ll have to wait another day.
 
Monday was a statistically-significant up-day. That just means that the price-volume move up exceeded statistical parameters that I track. The stats show that about 60% of the time a statistically significant move up will be followed by a down-day the next day. This is a warning that the move today could be a fake-out. There are still issues.
 
SENTIMENT
One big problem is Sentiment.  I measure Sentiment as %-Bulls (Bulls/{bulls+bears}) based on the amounts invested in Rydex/Guggenheim mutual funds. It was 87%-Bulls Friday, and it needs to be in the 60’s or maybe low 70’s before I’d look for a correction bottom.  If this were a true crash (with prices down 50%) sentiment would be in the 20s or 30s in terms of %-bulls. Sentiment is suggesting that this correction may have a lot further to go before we see a bottom. If we do see a quick recovery (i.e., the Index continues up from here), it is not likely to be durable and we may fall back into correction later.
 
Here are a few technical issues:
-My daily sum of 17 Indicators dropped from -5 to -11 and the 10-day smoothed version fell from -15 to -26. Negative totals for indicators are bearish and the smoothed trend is down.
 
Let’s see what happens tomorrow.
 
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS IS NOW NEARLY WORTHLESS. As one can see below in both momentum charts, most of the issues I track are now in negative territory, i.e., few have any upward momentum. That’s just an indication that the market is in correction mode and most stocks have been headed down.
 
TODAY’S RANKING OF  15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.  While momentum isn’t stock performance per se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked in the top 3 Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted correctly.) XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system. For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals remained Negative on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.  In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on Negative – no shorting). 
 
CURRENT PERCENTAGE IN STOCKS
21 March, I cut stock holdings from 50% to 35% with the remainder in a mix of stocks and (mostly short-term) bonds. (A comparable TSP allocation would be 35% in the S&P 500 Index fund (C-Fund) with the remainder 65% G-Fund (Government securities). Previously, I had reduced holdings on 31 Jan.
 
Monday, the VIX and Volume indicators were negative; Price and Sentiment were neutral. This isn’t a great time to get defensive. Indicators can signal a sell at the bottom of a smaller correction. If I wasn’t already out, I’d probably wait. Hopefully, we’ll have a better idea soon.

Friday, March 23, 2018

Durable Goods Orders … New Home sales … Stock Market Analysis … ETF Trading … Dow 30 Ranking

DURABLE GOODS ORDERS (Marketwatch)
Durable-goods orders jumped 3.1% in February, largely reversing a big drop at the start of the year and posting the largest gain since last summer. Business investment also rebounded in a good sign for the U.S. economy.” Story at…
 
HOME SALES (USNews)
“Sales of new U.S. homes slipped 0.6 percent in February, a third straight monthly decline. But year to date, sales are up 2.2 percent compared with 2017 in a sign that buyer demand remains solid.” Story at…
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS         
-Friday the S&P 500 was Down about 2.1% to 2588.
-VIX was UP about 7% to 24.87. 
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 2.815% as investors again bought Bonds.
 
The S&P 500 didn’t make a lower low so it’s still not at a point that we can make a call on whether the correction is over. We need to see a lower-low at the close and see positive signs in the market data to be a buyer in the market. As far as the indicators, there were mixed signals:
 
BEAR SIGNS
-My daily sum of 17 Indicators rose from -6 to -5 but, the 10-day smoothed version fell from -6 to -15. That’s not encouraging. Negative totals for indicators are bearish and the smoothed trend is down “bigley.”
 
NEUTRAL / MIXED SIGNS
-The Advance-Decline Ratio, Bollinger Bands and RSI all gave oversold (bullish) indications. In reviewing prior corrections, the Advance-Decline ratio has not reached levels low enough to match prior correction bottoms for recent corrections in the 10-15% range. The same is true for RSI. RSI has settled in the area of about +15 in the past and we’re not there yet.  RSI was 27 today.
-TRIN (Traders Index aka, the Arms Index) was only 1.2 today and that is not a point that would normally signal a bottom.  Numbers in the range of 2.2 and higher are usually seen at bottoms.
-Smart Money {based on late day action} reversed downward today, but not sharply.
 
BULL SIGNS
-Like yesterday, today was a statistically-significant, down-day. That just means that the price-volume move down exceeded statistical parameters that I track. The stats show that about 60% of the time a statistically significant move down will be followed by an up-day the next day.
-Tick (sum of closing trades) was -142 at the close and that is an area where it needs to be to make a bottom.
 
At this point, it looks like the Index will test the prior low. It is now only 0.3% above the low (2581) and only 0.1% above its 200-dMA. Usually, the test is successful and the Index will move up quickly after the test. Let’s hope that’s the case this time if it does in fact test the low. We could always see another bounce.
 
In the meantime, I will wait for a test of the prior low and stay alert for signs of an upward reversal. One never really knows – the markets could decide the correction ended today, even though I think not.
 
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS IS NOW NEARLY WORTHLESS. As one can see below in both momentum charts, most of the issues I track are now in negative territory, i.e., few have any upward momentum. That’s just an indication that the market is in correction mode and most stocks have been headed down.
 
TODAY’S RANKING OF  15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.  While momentum isn’t stock performance per se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked in the top 3 Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted correctly.) XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system. For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals remained Negative on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.  In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on Negative – no shorting). 
 
LONG TERM INDICATOR                                                        
Friday, the VIX and Volume indicators were negative; Price and Sentiment were neutral. I have been ignoring VIX, but as of today, it is combining with Volume to signal “Sell.”  It hasn’t given that indication since 5 February, 4% before the low (so far) of this correction. This isn’t a great time to sell. The long-term indicator can signal a sell at the bottom of a smaller correction. If I wasn’t already out, I’d probably wait until we retest the low. Hopefully, we’ll have a better idea then.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:
TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATION
21 March, I cut stock holdings from 50% to 35% with the remainder in a mix of stocks and (mostly short-term) bonds. (A comparable TSP allocation would be 35% in the S&P 500 Index fund (C-Fund) with the remainder 65% G-Fund (Government securities). This is a conservative retiree position. Previously, I had reduced holdings on 31 Jan.