Friday, January 29, 2016

GDP … Chicago PMI … Michigan Sentiment … Q4 Earnings … Freight Shipments Down … Stock Market Analysis

GDP “ANEMIC” (WSJ)
“The U.S. economy sputtered in the final months of 2015, a possible sign of flagging momentum amid global weakness and financial market turmoil. Gross domestic product, a broad measure of economic output, expanded at a 0.7% seasonally adjusted annualized rate…” Story at…
http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-gdp-advances-0-7-in-fourth-quarter-1454074312

CHICAGO PMI SURPRISES HIGHER (CNBC)
“The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index came in at 55.6 for January, the highest reading since last January. Economists polled by Reuters had expected 45.0…” Story at…
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/29/chicago-pmi-at-550-vs-450-reading-expected.html
My cmt, excerpted from the original Press Release: "Previously, surges of such magnitude have not been maintained so we would expect to see some easing in February. Still, even if activity does moderate somewhat next month, the latest increase supports the view that GDP will bounce back in Q1 following the expected slowdown in Q4." - Philip Uglow, Chief Economist of MNI Indicators. Even with the upward surprise, the chart of Chicago PMI is collapsing downward and remains worrisome.  See the chart at…
http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Chicago-PMI
 
MICHIGAN SENTIMENT (Advisor Perspectives)
“The University of Michigan Final Consumer Sentiment for January came in at 92.0…Consumer confidence has remained largely unchanged, as the January reading was just 0.6% below last month's level.” Commentary, analysis and charts at…
http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Michigan-Consumer-Sentiment-Index
 
Q4 EARNINGS (FACTSET)
Excerpted from FACTSET Earnings Insight for 29 Jan 2016: “For Q4 2015, the blended earnings decline is -5.8%. If the index reports a decline in earnings for Q4, it will mark the first time the index has seen three consecutive quarters of year-overyear declines in earnings since Q1 2009 through Q3 2009.” Earnings Insight is available from FACSTET at…
http://www.factset.com/websitefiles/PDFs/earningsinsight/earningsinsight_1.29.16/view
 
CASS FREIGHT INDEX (CASS Information Systems)
“Both the number of shipments and freight transportation expenditures continued their downward slide in December, falling 4.9 and 2.7 percent respectively. The declines are not unusual for December, but they capped off a second quarter of decline. In retrospect, 2015 did not even begin to reach the heights we reached in 2014…
…Companies are laying off seasonal workers and many are even going beyond that. Macy’s just announced a downsizing that will affect close to 5,000 employees and will see the closing of some of their flagship stores. Expect unemployment to rise again in the first quarter of 2016…
…With manufacturing slowing, inventories high, companies rationalizing employees and a sixmonth slide in freight volume and expenditures, 2016 will get off to a slow start.” Press release available at…
http://www.cassinfo.com/Transportation-Expense-Management/Supply-Chain-Analysis/Cass-Freight-Index.aspx
My cmt: This is why there really should be a DOW Theory sell-signal even if the experts can’t seem to agree if there has been one. Freight is signaling a slowdown. More concerning, if the CASS Systems prediction for unemployment and a slowdown in the first quarter of 2016 is correct; expect trouble in the stock market to continue.
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS        
-Friday, the S&P 500 was up about 2.5% to 1940 at the close.
-VIX dropped about 10% to 20.20.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped to 1.93%. (Apparently, the Bond Ghouls are not convinced the economy is as good as the stock traders seem to think.)
 
“As an investor, you should remember that making money in the market is only one-half of the job. Keeping it is the other.” – Lance Roberts
 
The Wall Street Journal called today’s GDP number anemic.  Combined with less than stellar profit results from company earnings announcements one wonders what is propping up the markets. The Chicago PMI is a regional number and hardly indicative of the country as a whole. One must surmise that it is simply a technical bounce; 1950 on the S&P 500 remains my estimate for the top of this bounce, but I’ll be watching my Money Trend Indicator because the markets will do what they want.
 
After the rally’s end, we’ll need to re-test the 1859 low.  If past history holds, that would occur in 1 to 7-weeks after the low. (Those are wide-ranging numbers from looking at 4 corrections with steep declines.)
 
SHORT TERM MONEY TREND & TRADING
My Money Trend indicator is mixed Friday, but it actually finished better than it had looked earlier in the day. It has been a pretty good indicator recently.
 
Today, Friday, had a look of desperation with money chasing the Index higher.  Friday was a statistically-significant day and that means that the price-volume move UP exceeded my statistical parameters and, in about 60% of the time, that leads to a down-day the next day (Monday). With that in mind, and given that the S&P 500 is now less than 1/2% below my target for the end of this rally, I took a short position at the close.  That may turn out to be a bad call. I forgot it’s the end of the month and there is a strong upward bias to the markets going into a new month. The Smart money indicator thinks this looks more like a bottom and I usually don’t trade against my Market Internals that are now positive. Uh-oh….
 
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
(I am getting data from various sites. Some of the numbers are subject to minor revision so the previous day’s numbers may be slightly different than reported yesterday.)
The 10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks advancing (NYSE) jumped to 52.5% Friday vs. 50.3% Thursday.  (A number above 50% is usually GOOD news for the markets. On a longer term, the 150-day moving average of advancing stocks increased to 48.8%. A value below 50% indicates a down trend. The McClellan Oscillator (a Breadth measure) remained positive.
 
In a reversal, New-highs outpaced New-lows. The spread (new-highs minus new-lows) was +27. (It was -79 Thursday.)   The 10-day moving average of the change in spread remained +74.  In other words, over the last 10-days, on average; the spread has INCREASED by 74 each day. Market Internals switched to positive on the markets.

Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.  In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on Negative – no shorting).  Of course, few trend-following systems will do well in an extreme low-volatility, nearly straight-up year like 2014.
 
NTSM         
Friday, the VIX indicator was negative. The Volume, Price & Sentiment indicators were neutral. The long-term NTSM indicator is HOLD.


MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:
TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATION
On 30 Dec I reduced my invested position in my retirement account to 30% invested in stocks thru an S&P 500 Index fund (“C”-fund in the TSP). Friday, 15 Jan I reduced stock allocation to zero in long-term accounts. That leaves 100% invested in cash yielding about 2%.  Short-term bonds would be OK too.
 
The S&P 500 peaked in Mid-May and has not been able to break higher in the past 8-months. That looks like a top to me. See “Why the Bull Market May be Dead” in my 14 December blog at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/2015/12/stocks-are-topping-time-to-sell-hussman.html

Thursday, January 28, 2016

Unemployment Claims … Durable Goods Orders … This isn’t 2008 … This is Still a Bear Market … Stock Market Analysis

UNEMPLOYEMENT CLAIMS (ABC News)
“The number of people seeking unemployment benefits fell last week, a sign that employers aren't cutting jobs in response to global economic weakness and sharp stock market drops. Weekly applications for unemployment benefits fell 16,000 to a seasonally adjusted 278,000.” Story at…
http://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/jobless-benefits-claims-decline-reducing-worries-about-previous-surge-n505836
 
DURABLE GOODS ORDERS (Market Watch)
“Demand for long-lasting “durable” goods sank in December, reflecting a downturn in business investment in 2015 that was especially acute in the waning months of the year. Orders for durable goods fell a seasonally adjusted 5.1% last month…” Story at…
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/durable-goods-orders-decline-could-mean-economy-shrank-in-fourth-quarter-2016-01-28
 
THIS ISN’T 2008 (CNBC)
"We probably have a ways to go before the next recession," Sonders said on Wednesday at the "Inside ETFs" conference in Hollywood, Florida. "We don't think it's 2008." - Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist, Charles Schwab. Story at…
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/28/schwabs-sonders-heres-the-bull-case-for-stock-markets.html
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS        
-Thursday, the S&P 500 was up about 0.6% to 1893 at the close.
-VIX dropped about 3% to 22.42.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped slightly to 1.99%
 
“As an investor, you should remember that making money in the market is only one-half of the job. Keeping it is the other.” – Lance Roberts
 
I am tentatively guessing around 1950 as a top for this rally, but I’ll be watching my Money Trend Indicator because the markets will do what they want.
 
We’ll need to re-test the 1859 low.  If past history holds, that would occur in 1 to 7-weeks after the low and after about a 5% retracement upward. (Those are wide-ranging numbers from looking at 4 corrections with steep declines.)
 
There is a technique used by some on Wall Street that consists of finding an analog of the current chart in past history.  Tom McLellan uses analogs in his analysis and he recently suggested that the current trend looks like the 2007-2008 bear market. In 2007 at this point the S&P 500 was 16% down from its top; at the S&P 500 22 Jan recent bottom, the Index was down 13%. That’s reasonably close - Coincidence? Perhaps, but it is another clue that this downturn may turn out to be more than the “correction” that is expected. I hate to disagree with Liz Ann Sonders (see above “This Isn’t 2008”); it may not be 2008, but the charts sure look like 2007. In the end, I’ll be following indicators; it’s never a good idea to be married blindly to an opinion.
 
THIS IS STILL A BEAR MARKET!
I keep hearing/reading that the Bull market is still going and there won’t be a Bear market in our near future.  In my opinion, this completely misses the point. The Stock Market is still in a Secular Bear market that started in 2000 when the dot.com bubble collapsed. Why? The NASDAQ Composite had the most extreme valuation during the 2000 bubble.  As shown in the following chart (NAZDAQ COMP in blue and the S&P 500 in Red), the NASDAQ Composite has not appreciably exceeded its 2000 high, so by definition it remains in a Bear market. Bear markets typically have 3-peaks and three valleys.  The NASDAQ and other indices appear to be making a third peak now.

Chart from…
https://www.google.com/finance?q=INDEXNASDAQ%3A.IXIC&ei=35X8U4DrBoqjqQHzwIGACw
 
SHORT TERM MONEY TREND & TRADING
My Money Trend indicator continues to trend up. It has been a pretty good indicator recently.
 
The markets traded down at 10AM Thursday.  The news at 10 was a weak new-housing number that had more to do with supply than demand. Since Money Trend was positive and the selloff made no sense, I went long for a short-term trade with UDOW (3x Dow 30) and made about 1.5% in an hour or two. I’ve never intended to be a day trader, but I remain cautious trading against trend.  Trend is now down.  A long trade should be held cautiously.
 
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
(I am getting data from various sites. Some of the numbers are subject to minor revision so the previous day’s numbers may be slightly different than reported yesterday.)
The 10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks advancing (NYSE) jumped to 50.3% Thursday vs. 44.8% Wednesday.  (A number below 50% is usually GOOD news for the markets. On a longer term, the 150-day moving average of advancing stocks increased to 48.4%. A value below 50% indicates a down trend. The McClellan Oscillator (a Breadth measure) improved to positive, reflecting the recent improvements in the percentage of stocks advancing.
 
New-lows outpaced New-highs again. The spread (new-highs minus new-lows) was minus-78. (It was -27 Wednesday.)   The 10-day moving average of the change in spread remained +67.  In other words, over the last 10-days, on average; the spread has INCREASED by 67 each day. Market Internals switched to positive on the markets.


Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.  In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on Negative – no shorting).  Of course, few trend-following systems will do well in an extreme low-volatility, nearly straight-up year like 2014.
 
NTSM         
Thursday, the VIX indicator was negative. The Volume, Price & Sentiment indicators were neutral. The long-term NTSM indicator is HOLD.


MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:
TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATION
On 30 Dec I reduced my invested position in my retirement account to 30% invested in stocks thru an S&P 500 Index fund (“C”-fund in the TSP). Friday, 15 Jan I reduced stock allocation to zero in long-term accounts. That leaves 100% invested in cash yielding about 2%.  Short-term bonds would be OK too.
 
The S&P 500 peaked in Mid-May and has not been able to break higher in the past 8-months. That looks like a top to me. See “Why the Bull Market May be Dead” in my 14 December blog at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/2015/12/stocks-are-topping-time-to-sell-hussman.html