Monday, June 30, 2014

Central Banks Buying Stocks…Market Peaking…Correction Watch

CENTRAL BANKS BUYING STOCKS (Bloomberg)
Central banks, guardians of the world’s $11 trillion in foreign-exchange reserves, are buying stocks in record amounts as falling bond yields push even risk- averse investors toward equities.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-24/central-banks-load-up-on-equities-as-low-rates-kill-bond-yields.html
CMT: I believe it’s not in the US Fed’s charter to buy stocks, but apparently foreigners have no such restriction.  It’s bad enough that now foreigner bankers can affect economies of other countries by buying and selling stocks.  More realistically, these foreign governments may try to sell stocks in a hurry during a crisis.  Can you say, “Crash!” See further commentary on this subject from Chis Sheridan on Doug Short’s website at…http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/guest/Cris-Sheridan-140627-Central-Banks-Buy-Stocks.php

THE MORE THINGS CHANGE (Lance Roberts)
Bob Farrell once wrote that "when all experts and forecasts agree; something else is bound to happen." Today, that is the case as much as it ever was. Despite rising geopolitical risks, weak economic data, deteriorating fundamentals and softer internals - the overwhelming belief is "equities are the only game in town. Of course, we have seen this mentality many times in past history whether it was 1929, 1987,2000 or 2007. While ever(sic) market peak was different, there (sic) were all the same.” Commentary and analysis from STA Wealth.com at…
http://stawealth.com/?option=com_content&connector=1&view=article&id=2279&Itemid=174

MARKET REPORT
Monday, the S&P 500 was down a point to 1960 (rounded).
VIX rose about 3% to 11.57.
 
The yield on the 10-year Treasury Note remained 2.59% at the close.  The Bond Ghouls are still not convinced that happy days are here again. 

CORRECTION WATCH
RSI remained a neutral 65 (70 is overbought). The Percentage of Stocks above their 200-dMA rose to 67% Friday (data is a day late); 61% is the trouble point for that stat.  The S&P 500 is 7.3% above the 200-dMA and 10% above the 200-day is the trouble point for that one. Chart wise, the index can still move up. Sentiment also has some head room before it turns negative, although sentiment is rising so it is hard to be sanguine about sentiment.  All-in-all though, it still looks like the index has room to move up a bit more, barring unforeseen bad news.
 
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks advancing (NYSE) climbed to 59% at the close Monday.  (A number above 50% for the 10-day average is generally good news for the market.)
 
New-highs outpaced New-lows Monday.  The spread (new-highs minus new-lows) was +244. (It was +195 Friday.) The 10-day moving average of change in the spread declined to +10.   In other words, over the last 10-days, on average, the spread has INCREASED by 10 each day. The smoothed 10-dMA of up-volume was UP today and the Internals remained positive on the market.


Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.  In 2013, using these internals alone would have made a 16% return vs. 30% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive out on Negative – no shorting).  Of course, few trend-following systems will do well in an extreme low-volatility, straight-up year like 2013.
 
NTSM
The NTSM analytical model for LONG-TERM MONEY remained HOLD Monday.  Sentiment rose to 80%-bulls (5-dMA of {bulls/(bulls+bears)} for funds invested in selected Rydex/Guggenheim funds at the close on Friday (data is a day late). (83% is the negative level for the Sentiment indicator.) This value was 85%-bulls on 19 May. Sentiment, Volume & VIX indicators are all neutral. The Price indicator remains positive because up-moves have been larger than down-moves recently.

MY INVESTED POSITION
I increased my stock allocation to 50% invested in stocks on 26 March because of the NTSM indicators turned positive 24 Mar at the close.  50% in stocks is fully invested for me, given my age (semi-retired) and the risk inherent in today’s stock market. I am watching closely to see if it is time to reduce my long-term stock holdings.
                                          --INDIVIDUAL STOCKS--
ENSCO (ESV): HOLD (Earnings announce 28 July)
For my initial discussion see the NTSM blog at:
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/2014/05/coppock-curve-says-stock-crash-nowblow.html
Ensco has surpassed the mean and median analyst price targets. As of Friday it is 55.35 so time to get more cautious.  There has been insider selling too.  That is usually not a big negative (insiders frequently sell to raise cash) but this time it involves several principals rather than just one. Do I hold thru the earnings release?  P/E is below 10 so this stock still has limited downside.  I am up 9% since I bought the stock in May.  I guess this depends on whether this is a long term investment or simply a trade.  That 9% dividend looks awfully good.
 
Price target data from…
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ao?s=ESV+Analyst+Opinion

Friday, June 27, 2014

Michigan Consumer Sentiment…DuPont Profit Warning…Bond Yields to Fall 20%?...Stock Market Correction Watch

MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT (Briefing.com)
“The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index increased to 82.5 in its final reading for June…up from 81.9 in May…Consumer sentiment has little influence on consumption. As long as payroll levels continue to expand, the resulting income growth should keep consumption gains steady regardless of the monthly ebbs and flows in sentiment.” Charts and details at…
https://www.briefing.com/Investor/Calendars/Economic/Releases/mich.htm

PROFITS STARTING TO CRACK? DUPONT’S REDUCED OUTLOOK
DuPont declined after the chemicals supplier reduced its operating profit outlook for the second quarter and full year. In midday trading Friday, the news dragged on the stock market at-large, too. "I am concerned, and I've expressed this opinion before that record profit margins are going to begin to revert to the mean," Cashin, director of floor operations at the NYSE for UBS, said on CNBC's "Squawk on the Street." "And unfortunately, this upcoming quarter may begin to show some signs of that…" Video at…
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101795780
CMT:  This has been a recurrent theme for John Hussman, PhD, (Hussman Funds) who has been writing about a profit mean-reversion for more than a year along with many others.  With corporate profits at a record high (by many measures) it is hard to see how this can continue.  When will they break?  Perhaps not too much longer.

YIELDS COULD FALL 20% (Chris Kimble)
“The yield on the 10-year note and 30-year bell weather bond look to be creating head & shoulders tops. The 30-year yield…looks to have broken its neckline and continues to decline inside of a falling channel since the start of 2014.”  I won’t try to summarize the piece further.  See Doug Shorts website for commentary and charts at…
http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/guest/Chris-Kimble-140627-Joe-Friday.php
CMT: Why would yields crash when most are predicting that yields will rise?  The bond market looks like it is warning of real trouble ahead for the stock market and the economy.  Many suggest the falling yields are due to demand from overseas and are not a concern.  I disagree.  If the world’s economy is headed for the toilet (and that’s what overseas demand for US bonds may indicate), the US won’t be unscathed. That isn’t a call for panic though.  I remain fully invested.

MARKET REPORT
Friday, the S&P 500 was up 0.2% to 1961 (rounded).
Volume was more than twice normal and this was attributed to portfolio-rebalancing at the end of the month.

VIX fell about 3% to 11.26. 

The yield on the 10-year Treasury Note fell to 2.59% at the close.  The Bond
Ghouls are still not convinced that happy days are here again. 

CORRECTION WATCH
RSI rose to a neutral 65 (70 is overbought). The Percentage of Stocks above their 200-dMA fell to 63% Thursday (data is a day late); 61% is the trouble point for that stat.  The S&P 500 is 7.5% above the 200-dMA and 10% above the 200-day is the trouble point for that one. Chart wise, the index can still move up.  Sentiment also has some head room before it turns negative, although sentiment is so high it is hard to be sanguine about sentiment.  All-in-all though, it still looks like the index has room to move up a bit more, barring unforeseen bad news.

MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks advancing (NYSE) climbed to 58% at the close Friday.  (A number above 50% for the 10-day average is generally good news for the market.)
 
New-highs outpaced New-lows Friday.  The spread (new-highs minus new-lows) was +195. (It was +125 Thursday.) The 10-day moving average of change in the spread rose to +12.   In other words, over the last 10-days, on average, the spread has INCREASED by 12 each day. The smoothed 10-dMA of up-volume was UP today and the Internals switched to positive on the market.


Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.  In 2013, using these internals alone would have made a 16% return vs. 30% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive out on Negative – no shorting).  Of course, few trend-following systems will do well in an extreme low-volatility, straight-up year like 2013.
 
NTSM
The NTSM analytical model for LONG-TERM MONEY remained HOLD Friday.  Sentiment rose to 78%-bulls (5-dMA of {bulls/(bulls+bears)} for funds invested in selected Rydex/Guggenheim funds at the close on Thursday (data is a day late). This value was 85%-bulls on 19 May. Sentiment, Volume & VIX indicators are all neutral. The Price indicator remains positive because up-moves have been larger than down-moves recently.


MY INVESTED POSITION
I increased my stock allocation to 50% invested in stocks on 26 March because of the NTSM indicators turned positive 24 Mar at the close.  50% in stocks is fully invested for me, given my age (semi-retired) and the risk inherent in today’s stock market. I am watching closely to see if it is time to reduce my long-term stock holdings.
                                          --INDIVIDUAL STOCKS--
ENSCO (ESV): BUY (Earnings announce 28 July)
The chart looks OK with higher lows and it made a higher high on the 1-month chart so I again rate ESV as BUY. It doesn’t hurt that it was upgraded to Buy on 27 May by The Street.com. For my initial discussion see the NTSM blog at:
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/2014/05/coppock-curve-says-stock-crash-nowblow.html


DISECTING ENSCO’S…FLEET STATUS REPORTS (Motley Fool)
“Overall, the recent fleet updates from both Ensco and Diamond show that the offshore drilling market remains under pressure.” For the commentary/analysis, see…
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/06/24/dissecting-enscos-and-diamonds-recent-fleet-status.aspx

Thursday, June 26, 2014

Jobless Claims Little Changed…Consumer Spending Slightly Up…Stock Market Correction Watch

JOBLESS CLAIMS DOWN SLIGHTLY (WSJ)
“Initial claims for unemployment benefits fell by 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 312,000 in the week ended June 21, the Labor Department said Thursday. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had predicted 310,000 claims for the week. The previous week's figure was revised upward by 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 314,000.”
http://online.wsj.com/articles/u-s-jobless-claims-edge-down-in-latest-week-1403785941
CMT: There is not enough change in this report to infer much.

CONSUMER SPENDING UP, BUT BELOW FORCAST (Bloomberg)
“Consumer spending in the U.S. grew less than forecast in May as Americans used gains in income to shore up household finances. Purchases, which account for about 70 percent of the economy, climbed 0.2 percent after being little changed in April…“Clearly the consumer is getting a bit squeezed here,” said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at IHS Inc…”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-06-26/consumer-spending-in-u-s-increased-less-than-forecast-in-may.html
CMT: One wonders whether the big rebound forecast by economists for the 2nd Quarter will take place.  The market may be worried too, based on the reaction in the morning, but as the day progressed there was a good recovery and it actually looks positive for Friday.

MARKET REPORT
Wednesday, the S&P 500 was down 0.1% to 1957 (rounded).
VIX rose about 0.4% to 11.63.
 
The yield on the 10-year Treasury Note fell to 2.52% at the close.  The Bond Ghouls are still not convinced that happy days are here again.
 
CORRECTION WATCH
RSI declined to a neutral 64 (70 is overbought). The Percentage of Stocks above their 200-dMA rose to 66% Wednesday; 61% is the trouble point for that stat.  The S&P 500 is 7.3% above the 200-dMA and 10% above the 200-day is the trouble point for that one. Chart wise, the index can still move up.  Sentiment also has some head room before it turns negative, although sentiment is so high it is hard to be sanguine about sentiment.  All-in-all though, it still looks like the index has room to move up a bit more, barring unforeseen bad news.
 
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks advancing (NYSE) remained 55% at the close Thursday.  (A number above 50% for the 10-day average is generally good news for the market.)
 
New-highs outpaced New-lows Thursday.  The spread (new-highs minus new-lows) was +125. (It was +119 Wednesday.) The 10-day moving average of change in the spread rose to +4.   In other words, over the last 10-days, on average, the spread has INCREASED by 4 each day. The smoothed 10-dMA of up-volume was UP today, but Internals remained NEUTRAL on the market because the new-hi/new-low spread is slipping.

Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.  In 2013, using these internals alone would have made a 16% return vs. 30% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive out on Negative – no shorting).  Of course, few trend-following systems will do well in an extreme low-volatility, straight-up year like 2013.
 
NTSM
The NTSM analytical model for LONG-TERM MONEY remained HOLD Thursday.  Sentiment rose to 76%-bulls (5-dMA of {bulls/(bulls+bears)} for funds invested in selected Rydex/Guggenheim funds at the close on Wednesday. This value was 85%-bulls on 19 May. Sentiment, Volume & VIX indicators are all neutral. The Price indicator remains positive because up-moves have been larger than down-moves recently.

MY INVESTED POSITION
I increased my stock allocation to 50% invested in stocks on 26 March because of the NTSM indicators turned positive 24 Mar at the close.  50% in stocks is fully invested for me, given my age (semi-retired) and the risk inherent in today’s stock market. I am watching closely to see if it is time to reduce my long-term stock holdings.
                                          --INDIVIDUAL STOCKS--
ENSCO (ESV): BUY (Earnings announce 28 July)
The chart looks OK with higher lows and it made a higher high on the 1-month chart so I again rate ESV as BUY. It doesn’t hurt that it was upgraded to Buy on 27 May by The Street.com. For my initial discussion see the NTSM blog at: