Thursday, November 30, 2017

Personal Spending … PCE Prices ... Jobless Claims … Chicago PMI … Forecasting the Next Recession … Stock Market Analysis … ETF Trading … Dow 30 Ranking

PERSONAL SPENDING (Reuters)
“U.S. consumer spending slowed in October as the hurricane-related boost to motor vehicle purchases faded, while a sustained increase in underlying price pressures suggested that a recent disinflationary trend had probably run its course… The reports strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next month.” Story at…
 
PCE PRICES (Advisor Perspectives)
“The latest Core PCE index (less Food and Energy) came in at 0.21% MoM and 1.45% YoY. Core PCE remains below the Fed's 2% target rate.” Story at…
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (Reuters)
“The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell last week, dropping for a second straight week as labor market conditions tightened further. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits slipped 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 238,000 for the week ended Nov. 25…” Story at…
 
CHICAGO PMI (DigitalLook)
“The MNI Chicago Business Barometer fell to 63.9 from October's six-and-half year high of 66.2, hitting its highest level in three months but slightly above economists' expectations for a reading of 63.0.” Story at…
 
FORECASTING THE NEXT RECESSION (Guggenheim Funds)
“The business cycle is one of the most important drivers of investment performance, as recessions lead to outsized moves across asset markets. It is therefore critical for investors to have a well-informed view on the timing of the next recession so portfolio allocations can be adjusted accordingly. Predicting recessions well in advance is notoriously difficult, but we believe our Recession Dashboard and Recession Probability Model make it possible to get an early read on when the next recession will begin by analyzing the late-cycle behavior of several key economic and market indicators. These analytical tools point to a high probability of a recession starting in late 2019 to mid-2020.” Commentary at…
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS         
-Thursday the S&P 500 was up about 0.8% to 2648.
-VIX was up about 5% to 11.28.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 2.411%.
 
I got a rare “BUY” signal from my XLI-S&P 500 spread indicator today. Basically, this indicator looks at the spread between the XLI and S&P 500 (on a %-basis) and signals buy or sell.  The theory is that cyclical stocks outperform when investors are bullish and under-perform if investors are worried since cyclicals would fare worse in a recession. The last time it gave a signal of any kind was November 2016, 4 days after the bottom of a 5% pullback. It’s interesting that Investors are so bullish now. In 2016 Bollinger bands were signaling “oversold” a bullish reading.  Now we have bearish readings from Bollinger Bands and a sharply rising RSI.  I suspect investors may be getting too bullish and the current up-trend may turn in a few weeks. I am not expecting a huge pullback, but a 5-10% correction is way overdue.
 
My sum of 17 Indicators improved from +2 to +4 on the day and improved from -4 to +9 on a 10-day basis. That’s a big swing and is quite bullish. However, like the cyclical spread indicator above, this may be too much of a good thing.
 
On the Bearish side:
-Bollinger Bands are again “overbought.” That means the Index is 2 standard deviations above its average over the last month. It has actually surpassed it my more than we’ve seen in the past 2-years and that’s a bearish sign.
-RSI is currently neutral, but very close to a sell.
-The Smart Money (late day action) is still headed down, but it is hinting at a reversal up.
-The overbought/oversold ratio is now overbought, but this indicator is traditionally early so it is not important.
 
My guess is that a short-term top is coming soon, but may be further off than most expect. Perhaps the Christmas rally will carry through the second or third week of December.
 
In summary: I am mildly bullish short-term and bullish longer-term. One wonders when this party will end so I will worry if the numbers deteriorate, but for now I remain fully invested.
 
TODAY’S RANKING OF  15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.  While momentum isn’t stock performance per se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
Financials (XLF) moved into #1. Technology (XLK) slipped to #2, tied with ITA (Aerospace and Defense. (Nothing like the threat of war to boost ITA.)
 
There were big changes today.  Most of the ETFs gained over the last several days and the financials (XLF) were up 5% over the last three. With interest rates expected to rise in the future Financials have made a big move from a momentum perspective. However, over the last 2-months, XLK (Technology) has gained 7.5% while XLF (Financials) are up 5.6%. We’ll see what happens. For now, I will continue to hold XLK.
 
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock. 
 
Walmart (WMT) was 1st today. Intel (INTC) slipped to #2.
Avoid GE, Merck, United Technologies and Disney. Their 120-day moving averages are falling.
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system. For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
Intel is down 1% since I bought it 31 Oct 2017.  This is a risk of a momentum strategy. The hottest stock can get identified after an earnings surprise and the stock has already moved.  The momentum then slows and profit taking follows.  I am going to hold Intel because I think buying will pick up again if they are able to keep up earnings growth. In addition, its PE is a low 15.4 vs the average DOW PE of 25 as of the end of October. The Yield on the S&P 500 (SPY) is 1.9% while the Dividend for Intel is 2.3%. I think it is worth holding.
 
SHORT-TERM TRADING PORTFOLIO - 2017 (Small-% of the total portfolio)
My shorting rule is as follows:
-“In a bull market, you can only be long or neutral.” – D. Gartman
-“The best policy is to avoid shorting unless a major bear market is underway and downside momentum has been thoroughly established. Even then, your timing must sometimes be perfect. In a bull market the trend is truly your friend, and trading against the grain is usually a fool's errand.” – Clif Droke.
-“Commandment #1: “Thou Shall Not Trade Against the Trend.” - James P. Arthur Huprich
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals were Positive on the market. (Market Internals are based on a package of internals and all must be positive to create a positive indication. 
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.  In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on Negative – no shorting). 
 
LONG TERM INDICATOR                                                        
Thursday, Price & Volume were positive; Sentiment & VIX indicators were neutral. With VIX recently below 10 for a couple of days in May, June, July, August, September, October and now November, VIX may be prone to incorrect signals. Usually, a rising VIX is a bad market sign; now it may move up, but that might just signal normalization of VIX, i.e., VIX and the Index may both rise. As an indicator, VIX is out of the picture for a while.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:
TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATION
I increased stock allocation to 50% stocks in the S&P 500 Index fund (C-Fund) 24 March 2017 in my long-term accounts, based on short-term indicators. The remainder is 50% G-Fund (Government securities). This is a conservative retiree allocation, but I consider it fully invested for my situation.
 
The previous signal was a BUY on 2 June and the last actionable signal was a BUY (from a prior sell) on 15 November 2016. This Buy is meaningless.  The long-term system is designed to signal a buy after a bottom and it is reasonably good in that role.  Now, near a top, it is just another sign of too much of a good thing.

Wednesday, November 29, 2017

FED Beige Book … GDP 2nd Est … Pending Home sales … Crude Inventories … Stock Market Analysis … ETF Trading … Dow 30 Ranking

FED BEIGE BOOK (Bloomberg)
“The U.S. economy grew at a modest to moderate pace through mid-November as price pressures strengthened and the labor market tightened, a Federal Reserve survey showed. The central bank's Beige Book economic report, based on anecdotal information collected by the 12 regional Fed banks through Nov. 17, said business contacts also reported a brightening view as they look ahead.” Story at…
 
GDP (Business Insider)
“A second estimate of third-quarter gross domestic product on Wednesday showed that the US economy grew at a 3.3% annualized rate, the strongest since Q3 2014.” Story at…
 
PENDING HOME SALES (Reuters)
“Contracts to buy previously owned homes rebounded in October as the market recovered from hurricane-related effects in the South of the country but activity continued lag year ago levels. The National Association of Realtors said on Wednesday its pending home sales index rose to a reading of 109.3.” Story at…
 
CRUDE INVENTORIES (OilPrice.com)
“The Energy Information Administration reported a 3.4-million-barrel draw in crude oil inventories for the week to November 24…” Story at…
 
CORPORATE TAXCUTS (RIA)
“The tax bill, as it is currently proposed, will increase the deficit by $1.5 trillion over ten years. As such, the government will borrow an additional $1.5 trillion on top of current projections of approximately $1 trillion per year.
 
When the government borrows money to fund a fiscal deficit they effectively crowd out investment that could have funded the real economy. Said differently, the money required to fund the government’s deficit cannot be invested in the pursuit of innovation, improving workers skills, or other investments that pay economic dividends in the future. As we have discussed on numerous occasions, productivity growth drives economic growth over the longer term. Therefore, a lack productivity growth slows economic growth and ultimately weighs on corporate earnings.”  - Michael Lebowitz, CFA. Commentary at…
Mt cmt: As I wrote back on 9 November 2016: “I didn’t support Donald J. Trump for a number of reasons, but especially because his stated plan (cutting taxes and increasing spending) will double the National Debt…again…”
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS         
-Wednesday the S&P 500 was down about 1 pt to 2626.
-VIX was up about 7% to 10.7.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 2.388%.
 
The following is true again: Indicators were little changed on the day and continue to improve when compared to 10-days ago. That’s good news for the bulls and continues to support my bullish view in the short and long-term. Breadth is improving; up-volume is 59% over the past 10-days; Cyclical industrial stocks (XLI-ETF) continue to improve when compared to the S&P 500. Cyclicals would be falling if investors were worried.
 
On the Bearish side: Bollinger Bands are again “overbought.” The Smart Money (late day action) is still headed down, but it is hinting at a reversal up. RSI is currently neutral. The overbought/oversold ratio is now overbought, but this indicator is traditionally early so it is not important.
 
My guess is that a short-term top is much further off. Perhaps the Christmas rally will carry through most of December.
 
In summary: I am bullish short-term and longer-term. One wonders when this party will end so I will worry if the numbers deteriorate, but for now I remain fully invested.
 
TODAY’S RANKING OF  15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.  While momentum isn’t stock performance per se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
Technology (XLK) remained #1, but it was today’s worst performer down 2.2%. Is its momentum failing too?
 
I may look at a rate of change analysis on my momentum indicator.  Potentially this could catch shifts faster, but it will take a lot of work to tune such a system and back test it to prove its worth.
 
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock. 
 
Intel (INTC) and Walmart (WMT) are essentially tied for 1st today.
Avoid GE, Merck, United Technologies and Disney. Their 120-day moving averages are falling.
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system. For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
Intel is down 3% since I bought it 31 Oct 2017.  This is a risk of a momentum strategy. The hottest stock can get identified after an earnings surprise and the stock has already moved.  The momentum then slows and profit taking follows.  I am going to hold Intel because I think buying will pick up again if they are able to keep up earnings growth. In addition its PE is a low 15.4. vs the average DOW PE of 25 as of the end of October. The Yield on the S&P 500 (SPY) is 1.9% while the Dividend for Intel is 2.3%. I think it is worth holding.
 
SHORT-TERM TRADING PORTFOLIO - 2017 (Small-% of the total portfolio)
My shorting rule is as follows:
-“In a bull market, you can only be long or neutral.” – D. Gartman
-“The best policy is to avoid shorting unless a major bear market is underway and downside momentum has been thoroughly established. Even then, your timing must sometimes be perfect. In a bull market the trend is truly your friend, and trading against the grain is usually a fool's errand.” – Clif Droke.
-“Commandment #1: “Thou Shall Not Trade Against the Trend.” - James P. Arthur Huprich
 
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals were Positive on the market. (Market Internals are based on a package of internals and all must be positive to create a positive indication. 
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.  In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on Negative – no shorting). 
 
LONG TERM INDICATOR                                                        
Wednesday, Price was positive; Sentiment, VIX & Volume indicators were neutral. With VIX recently below 10 for a couple of days in May, June, July, August, September, October and now November, VIX may be prone to incorrect signals. Usually, a rising VIX is a bad market sign; now it may move up, but that might just signal normalization of VIX, i.e., VIX and the Index may both rise. As an indicator, VIX is out of the picture for a while.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:
TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATION
I increased stock allocation to 50% stocks in the S&P 500 Index fund (C-Fund) 24 March 2017 in my long-term accounts, based on short-term indicators. The remainder is 50% G-Fund (Government securities). This is a conservative retiree allocation, but I consider it fully invested for my situation.
 
The previous signal was a BUY on 2 June and the last actionable signal was a BUY (from a prior sell) on 15 November 2016.

Tuesday, November 28, 2017

Consumer Confidence … Stock Market Analysis … ETF Trading … Dow 30 Ranking

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
U.S consumer confidence surged to a near 17-year high in November, driven by a robust labor market, while house prices rose sharply in September, which should underpin consumer spending and boost economic growth.” Story at…
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS         
-Tuesday the S&P 500 was up about 1.1% to 2627.
-VIX was up about 1% to 9.95. (Just a reminder; VIX below 10 is an extreme low number indicating extreme complacency. Previously, when VIX has been below 10 a crash followed about 6-months later. VIX doesn’t cause a crash – it just warns that unexpected news may bring a lot of selling as investors wake up to risk.)
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury was basically unchanged at 2.329%.
 
Today was statistically significant in my system.  That just means that the price-volume move up on the S&P 500 exceeded statistical parameters that I track. The stats show that about 60% of the time a statistically significant move up will be followed by a down day the next day. I was tempted to take a VXX position, but there are not enough bearish indicators for me.
 
Indicators were little changed on the day and continue to improve when compared to 10-days ago. That’s good news for the bulls and continues to support my bullish view in the short and long-term. Breadth is improving; up-volume is 56% over the past 10-days; Cyclical industrial stocks (XLI-ETF) are improving when compared to the S&P 500.
 
On the Bearish side: Bollinger Bands rose to an “overbought” indication and the Smart Money (late day action) is still headed down. RSI is currently neutral my guess is that it may take longer for the S&P 500 to make a short-term top.
 
In summary: I am bullish short-term and longer-term. One wonders when this party will end so I will worry if the numbers deteriorate, but for now I remain fully invested.
 
TODAY’S RANKING OF  15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.  While momentum isn’t stock performance per se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
Technology (XLK) remained #1.
 
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock. 
 
Intel (INTC) and Walmart (WMT) were tied for 1st today.
Avoid GE, Merck, United Technologies and Disney. Their 120-day moving averages are falling.
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system. For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
SHORT-TERM TRADING PORTFOLIO - 2017 (Small-% of the total portfolio)
My shorting rule is as follows:
-“In a bull market, you can only be long or neutral.” – D. Gartman
-“The best policy is to avoid shorting unless a major bear market is underway and downside momentum has been thoroughly established. Even then, your timing must sometimes be perfect. In a bull market the trend is truly your friend, and trading against the grain is usually a fool's errand.” – Clif Droke.
-“Commandment #1: “Thou Shall Not Trade Against the Trend.” - James P. Arthur Huprich
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals were Positive on the market. (Market Internals are based on a package of internals and all must be positive to create a positive indication. 
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.  In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on Negative – no shorting). 
 
LONG TERM INDICATOR                                                        
Tuesday, Price was positive; Sentiment, VIX & Volume indicators were neutral. With VIX recently below 10 for a couple of days in May, June, July, August, September, October and now November, VIX may be prone to incorrect signals. Usually, a rising VIX is a bad market sign; now it may move up, but that might just signal normalization of VIX, i.e., VIX and the Index may both rise. As an indicator, VIX is out of the picture for a while.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:
TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATION
I increased stock allocation to 50% stocks in the S&P 500 Index fund (C-Fund) 24 March 2017 in my long-term accounts, based on short-term indicators. The remainder is 50% G-Fund (Government securities). This is a conservative retiree allocation, but I consider it fully invested for my situation.
 
The previous signal was a BUY on 2 June and the last actionable signal was a BUY (from a prior sell) on 15 November 2016.

Monday, November 27, 2017

New Home Sales … Stock Market Analysis … ETF Trading … Dow 30 Ranking

HOME SALES (Reuters)
“Sales of new U.S. single-family homes unexpectedly rose in October to hit a 10-year high amid robust demand across the country, offering a boost to the housing market.”  Story at…
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS         
-Monday the S&P 500 was essentially unchanged at 2601.
-VIX was up about 2% to 9.87. (Just a reminder; VIX below 10 is an extreme low number indicating extreme complacency. Previously, when VIX has been below 10 a crash followed about 6-months later. VIX doesn’t cause a crash – it just warns that unexpected news may bring a lot of selling as investors wake up to risk.)
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped slightly to 2.330%.
 
Norman Fosbeck, author of “Stock Market Logic,” stated that high unchanged volume was a sign of a market top since it indicates investor confusion at a turning point. Unchanged volume today was very high at 141,000,000 shares on the NYSE. I had to go all the way back to April of 2017 to find a number that high.  That was during a small drop of about 3%. I’ve only tracked unchanged volume for the past 2 years so I don’t have enough experience with this stat to have an opinion. Over the past 2-years it hasn’t been higher very often, but we haven’t had any real corrections in that time either.
 
Other than unchanged volume, this write-up, looks a lot like Friday. Just like last Friday, Indicators were unchanged at +1 on the day, but continue to improve when compared to 10-days ago. That’s good news for the bulls and continues to support my bullish view in the short and long-term.
 
On the Bearish side: Bollinger Bands are close to an “overbought” indication and a Bollinger Band squeeze is possible.  A squeeze usually is followed by a big move, one way or the other. Because the Index is near its upper trend line and my guess would be that a down move would be indicated should we actually get a squeeze. RSI is currently neutral so I think these bear signals will be further down the road,
 
In summary: I am bullish short-term and longer-term. One wonders when this party will end so I will worry if the numbers deteriorate, but for now I remain fully invested.
 
TODAY’S RANKING OF  15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.  While momentum isn’t stock performance per se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
Technology (XLK) remained #1.
 
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock. 
 
Intel (INTC) remains #1 today with Walmart (WMT) a close second.
Avoid GE, Merck, United Technologies and Disney. Their 120-day moving averages are falling.
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system. For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
SHORT-TERM TRADING PORTFOLIO - 2017 (Small-% of the total portfolio)
LONG
I sold my VXX position at a slight loss of 0.1% on 14 Nov. I had been up 7%, but the improvements in the markets caused VIX to tank and it reversed my profit in 2-days.
My shorting rule is as follows:
-“In a bull market, you can only be long or neutral.” – D. Gartman
-“The best policy is to avoid shorting unless a major bear market is underway and downside momentum has been thoroughly established. Even then, your timing must sometimes be perfect. In a bull market the trend is truly your friend, and trading against the grain is usually a fool's errand.” – Clif Droke.
-“Commandment #1: “Thou Shall Not Trade Against the Trend.” - James P. Arthur Huprich
 
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals were Neutral on the market. (Market Internals are based on a package of internals and all must be positive to create a positive indication. 
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.  In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on Negative – no shorting). 
 
LONG TERM INDICATOR                                                        
Monday, Price was positive; Sentiment, VIX & Volume indicators were neutral. With VIX recently below 10 for a couple of days in May, June, July, August, September, October and now November, VIX may be prone to incorrect signals. Usually, a rising VIX is a bad market sign; now it may move up, but that might just signal normalization of VIX, i.e., VIX and the Index may both rise. As an indicator, VIX is out of the picture for a while.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:
TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATION
I increased stock allocation to 50% stocks in the S&P 500 Index fund (C-Fund) 24 March 2017 in my long-term accounts, based on short-term indicators. The remainder is 50% G-Fund (Government securities). This is a conservative retiree allocation, but I consider it fully invested for my situation.
 
The previous signal was a BUY on 2 June and the last actionable signal was a BUY (from a prior sell) on 15 November 2016.

Friday, November 24, 2017

Michigan Consumer Sentiment … Stock Market Analysis … ETF Trading … Dow 30 Ranking

CONSUMER SENTIMENT (Advisor Perspectives)
“Consumer sentiment narrowed its loss from mid-month, although it was still slightly below last month's decade peak. Overall, the Sentiment Index has remained largely unchanged since the start of the year at the highest levels since 2004.” Story at…
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS         
-Friday the S&P 500 was up about 0.2% to 2602.
-VIX was down about 2% to 9.65. (Just a reminder; VIX below 10 is an extreme low number indicating extreme complacency. Previously, when VIX has been below 10 a crash followed about 6-months later. VIX doesn’t cause a crash – it just warns that unexpected news may bring a lot of selling as investors wake up to risk.)
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 2.339%.
 
Indicators were unchanged at +1 on the day, but continue to improve when compared to 10-days ago. That’s good news for the bulls and continues to support my bullish view in the short and long-term.
 
Volume hit its low for the year and was about 60% below the norm over the last month.  That’s where it was Black Friday last year so nothing new here. The % of stocks advancing is improving faster than the S&P 500 and that’s a bullish sign too.
 
On the Bearish side: Bollinger Bands are close to an “overbought” indication and a Bollinger Band squeeze is possible.  A squeeze usually is followed by a big move, one way or the other. Because the Index is near its upper trend line and my guess would be that a down move would be indicated should we actually get a squeeze. RSI is currently neutral so I think these bear signals will be further down the road,
 
In summary: I am bullish short-term and longer-term. One wonders when this party will end so I will worry if the numbers deteriorate, but for now I remain fully invested.
 
TODAY’S RANKING OF  15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.  While momentum isn’t stock performance per se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
Technology (XLK) remained #1. (I own XLK, DVY and SPY.)
 
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock. 
 
Intel (INTC) remains #1 today with Walmart (WMT) a close second. (I own Intel.)
Avoid GE, IBM, Merck, United Technologies and Disney. Their 120-day moving averages are falling.
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system. For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
SHORT-TERM TRADING PORTFOLIO - 2017 (Small-% of the total portfolio)
LONG
I sold my VXX position at a slight loss of 0.1% on 14 Nov. I had been up 7%, but the improvements in the markets caused VIX to tank and it reversed my profit in 2-days.
My shorting rule is as follows:
-“In a bull market, you can only be long or neutral.” – D. Gartman
-“The best policy is to avoid shorting unless a major bear market is underway and downside momentum has been thoroughly established. Even then, your timing must sometimes be perfect. In a bull market the trend is truly your friend, and trading against the grain is usually a fool's errand.” – Clif Droke.
-“Commandment #1: “Thou Shall Not Trade Against the Trend.” - James P. Arthur Huprich
These rules must make one careful when shorting.
 
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals remained Positive on the market….sort of. My Market Internals Volume indicator is based on the actual up-volume over a smoothed 10-day period. When daily volume is extremely low (like yesterday and today) this can give a neutral or bearish indication just because ALL of the volume is low. On extreme overall low-volume days I revert to up-volume on a %-basis. Currently, up-volume is 53% over the previous 10-days indicating an up trend and a positive indication. (Market Internals are based on a package of internals and all must be positive to create a positive indication.  

Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.  In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on Negative – no shorting). 
 
LONG TERM INDICATOR                                                        
Friday, Price was positive; Sentiment, VIX & Volume indicators were neutral. With VIX recently below 10 for a couple of days in May, June, July, August, September, October and now November, VIX may be prone to incorrect signals. Usually, a rising VIX is a bad market sign; now it may move up, but that might just signal normalization of VIX, i.e., VIX and the Index may both rise. As an indicator, VIX is out of the picture for a while.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:
TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATION
I increased stock allocation to 50% stocks in the S&P 500 Index fund (C-Fund) 24 March 2017 in my long-term accounts, based on short-term indicators. The remainder is 50% G-Fund (Government securities). This is a conservative retiree allocation, but I consider it fully invested for my situation.
 
The previous signal was a BUY on 2 June and the last actionable signal was a BUY (from a prior sell) on 15 November 2016.