Friday, December 30, 2011

Year End Report: NTSM Up 12% - S&P 500…zero gain


The S&P 500 started the year at 1257.64 and finished 2011 at 1257.60 for a loss of 0.003%. (It would be hard to get any closer to zero gain that that.) 

NTSM started the year fully invested.  NTMS had three trades (sold 3-times and bought 3-times) during the year and ended the year fully invested.

The Navigate the Stock Market analysis was up 12% on the year.

Risk adjusted, NTSM looks good because the NTSM was invested in the stock market for only 151-days or 60% of the trading days.

In the last 23-days there have only been 3-days when the NTSM analysis was not BUY (the other three were Hold).  In the past that sort of consistency has been very bullish, but there is no guarantee here; as I point out regularly, the NTSM analysis does not foresee the future – it just analyzes the present status of the S&P 500 via Sentiment, Price, Volume and Vix.

The S&P 500 finished the year at the 200-day moving average.  If the market can move up a little from here it may create some optimism from the technical traders.  I remain bullish going into the new year.

The NTSM analysis is BUY today.  

I bought back into the stock market at S&P 500, 1155 on 7 Oct after the 6 Oct NTSM buy signal.  I remain 100% long in the long term portfolio (100% stocks in the 401k.). (See the page “How to Use the NTSM System” – the link is on the right side of this page). 

I am 90% long in the trading portfolio.

Just a reminder: 100% invested in stocks is way too much for most rational folks.   Don’t do it unless you have a high tolerance for risk.

Have a Happy and safe New Year

Thursday, December 29, 2011

Ending on a Bullish note?

Futures are mixed at this point so I guess we’ll find out tomorrow.

NTSM is BUY again today – I like the consistent bullish tone to the NTSM model.  Let’s hope it continues into next year.  That will likely depend on the Eurozone and that seems to be impossible to predict.  Economic data seems to be slowly improving so I am hopeful next year will be a good one.

I bought back into the stock market at S&P 500, 1155 on 7 Oct after the 6 Oct NTSM buy signal.  I remain 100% long in the long term portfolio (100% stocks in the 401k.). (See the page “How to Use the NTSM System” – the link is on the right side of this page). 

I am 90% long in the trading portfolio.

Just a reminder: 100% invested in stocks is way too much for most rational folks.   Don’t do it unless you have a high tolerance for risk.

Wednesday, December 28, 2011

Navigate the Stock Market (NTSM) is BUY

The Navigate the Stock Market system switched back to BUY today, even though the S&P 500 was down 1.25% to 1250.

It will be interesting to see how the rest of this Holiday season goes.  Last year the S&P went nowhere during the break between Christmas and New Year’s Day; it finished a few tenths from where it started.   Perhaps this year will be more eventful, but perhaps not too eventful.  The S&P 500 would need to drop below 1210 before I would be worried.  That’s where the short-term bottom trend line is now. 

On a longer term chart view, there seems to be a neutral wedge pattern (falling highs and rising lows) that is one of those patterns that is not well defined, i.e., it can be resolved either up or down.  So I’ll stick with the NTSM analysis – I’m not a chart guy anyway.

For Government employees and Military: I note that the “S” fund (Wilshire 4500) is outperforming the “C” fund (S&P 500) by about 5% since 6 October when the NTSM switched to Buy.  So, I will remain in the S-fund for the time being.  That opinion is bolstered by a recent article in the WSJ suggesting that small-cap stocks will continue to outperform large caps.

I remain 100% long in the 401k due to the NTSM BUY signal of 6 October 2011 and I am 90% long in the trading portfolio.

Tuesday, December 27, 2011

Consumer Confidence higher again…

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- "Consumer confidence shot higher for the second month in a row in December, according to a survey from The Conference Board.  The research firm's overall confidence index, released Tuesday, jumped 9.3 points to 64.5. The increase follows a 14.3-point rise in November."After two months of considerable gains, the index is now back to levels seen last spring," said Lynn Franco, director of the group's research center."
From CNN/Money at:   http://money.cnn.com/2011/12/27/news/economy/consumer_confidence/index.htm?iid=HP_LN

That’s good news.  The consumer can help this economy, and stock market, get healthy.

The S&P 500 was unchanged today while VIX rose almost 6%. 

It’s not typical for the two quotes to diverge so much.  It may be that today’s rise in VIX is simply a reaction to the low VIX (i.e., some options buyers stepped in) or it could indicate the start of some trouble ahead.  I am not going to worry about it.  The markets are all going to suffer from low volume this week so it will be hard to trust any conclusions based on this week’s action.

The NTSM system slipped to HOLD today as the VIX indicator dropped to neutral.

I remain 100% long in the 401k due to the NTSM BUY signal of 6 October 2011 and 90% long in the trading portfolio.

Friday, December 23, 2011

Merry Christmas and Happy Hanukkah to all…


It is nice to see the S&P 500 finish the week up 5% to 1265.  VIX has been falling nicely.

There were lots of reports that the S&P 500 is now back to even for the year (zero return).  NTSM is up 12% year-to-date so I am feeling pretty good about that.  It has been a challenging year for the markets this year and we still have another week to go.   The market is up 10% since the NTSM BUY signal on 6 October. I expect more upside ahead, but not everyone agrees.

The sentiment indicator showed that a lot of traders are betting for a market drop Tuesday.  Who knows?  As always, we’ll wait and see.

The NTSM analysis is BUY today.  

NTMS has been BUY 16 of the last 18 trading days.  The last time the NTMS system was so consistently positive was in August of 2010 and that was followed by 8-months of gains before NTSM gave a sell signal.   That may be just a coincidence though.  I expect that 2012 will be another challenging year – hopefully, it will be rewarding too.

I bought back into the stock market at S&P 500, 1155 on 7 Oct after the 6 Oct NTSM buy signal.  I remain 100% long in the long term portfolio (100% stocks in the 401k.). (See the page “How to Use the NTSM System” – the link is on the right side of this page). 

I am 90% long in the trading portfolio.

Just a reminder: 100% invested in stocks is way too much for most rational folks.   Don’t do it unless you have a high tolerance for risk.

Thursday, December 22, 2011

New claims for jobless benefits hit a 3-1/2 year low; the economy on course for a 3% growth pace in the fourth quarter

Reuters - "The number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits hit a 3-1/2 year low last week, bolstering views that the economy was gaining momentum, even though third-quarter growth was revised down.

Other data on Thursday underscored the firming tone in the economy, with consumer sentiment scaling a six-month high in December and a barometer of future activity rising for a seventh straight month in November." – Full story at:

The Telegraph (London) – “Even as much of the rest of the world is slowing down and a mild recession is forecast in Europe next year, the US economy has remained resilient.

The jobs market is improving, households continue to spend, home building is picking up and factory output is expanding, putting the economy on course for at least a 3pc growth pace in the fourth quarter." – Full story at:

In Europe the ECB’s lending to banks has been well received with a lot of bank participation.  That seems to be leading to some good stock market action in European stocks - the Stoxx Euro 600 was up about 1% today.  I am not endorsing buying Europe, but it does show some confidence over there and that will be bullish for the US market too.

The S&P 500 ended up about 0.8% today to 1254 with volume on the NYSE about 15% below the average for the month.  VIX was down another 1% to 21.2. 

The NTSM analysis is BUY today. 

I bought back into the stock market at S&P 500, 1155 on 7 Oct after the 6 Oct NTSM buy signal.  I remain 100% long in the long term portfolio (100% stocks in the 401k.). (See the page “How to Use the NTSM System” – the link is on the right side of this page). 

I am 90% long in the trading portfolio…and still cautiously optimistic.
Just a reminder: 100% invested in stocks is way too much for most rational folks.   Don’t do it unless you have a high tolerance for risk.

Wednesday, December 21, 2011

The European Central Bank (ECB) steps in


MARKET WRAP
The S&P 500 ended up about 0.2% today to  1244 on normal, non-Holiday volume.  VIX was down another 8% to 21.43.  That was a really good result given that the S&P 500 was down almost 1% early in the day.

Regarding the VIX: Jon Najarian, co-founder of TradeMonster.com said on “Breakout”  (Yahoo Finance) that “…this is the best reading we've ever seen out of the VIX because a week ago it was screaming from the rooftops that we'd being going down."

Najarian says “…volatility softness more or less suggests a near-term rally for the broader market...(but)…It doesn't necessarily mean we have to rally, it just means the moves will be less exaggerated."  Full story at:

THE ECB
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) – “The European Central Bank on Wednesday announced strong demand for a key bank lending program meant to address the Eurozone debt crisis.

The ECB allotted €489.19 billion ($643.18 billion) in the first batch of its 3-year loan program -- more than investors expected. The loans will go to 523 banks in the eurozone to support bank lending and liquidity, the central bank said.”  – Full story at http://money.cnn.com/2011/12/21/markets/world_markets_ecb/index.htm?iid=HP_LN

I usually try to avoid guessing why the market goes up or down on any given day.  Every financial newscast reports the reason for the day’s market action.  They are almost always wrong.  Take yesterday; even I got caught up in the hype and I listed as one of the reasons for yesterday’s big move up as “improved housing data.”  In fact, the futures market was way up Monday night, before Tuesday’s open, and the housing data wasn’t released until 8AM Tuesday morning.  .  The housing data was only good news for Apartment construction, but little-changed for single-family housing.  

It would appear that the real reason for yesterday’s move was the European Central Bank action described above.  Remember; Europe’s issues are less about the individual countries than it is about the money the countries owe the Banks – it’s all about the banks (except for perhaps a coming recession in Europe which is a whole different kettle of soup).

Now here is a related comment that applies to the US and Europe.  I don’t endorse the opinion – I merely provide it for your consideration.

Comment by drtkw on a trader’s discussion board...
The world is in a position whereby it has consumed more than it would've otherwise consumed over the last 30 yrs, by utilizing credit (debt) which allows a consumer to pull future demand forward into the present via borrowing. Therefore to restore the balance, it is necessary to have a period of less consumption (i.e. deflation) to remove this "future consumption brought forward" as represented by debt.

Now we see the manicured hand set (global banking syndicate and their political lackey elites) printing money in order to prevent this reduction in consumption, so I ask you a simple question; Does printing money, i.e. putting ink on a piece of paper) create "value" or does it simply skew the winner/loser balance toward the printers (the banksters)? I think it is obvious that printing doesn't change the fact that there is an excess (30 yrs worth) of consumption over production, on credit, and that printing doesn't change that fact but just lets the elites who are printing the money, be less hurt than Joe6pak, who bears the lion’s share of the suffering.

We will have a depression, regardless of what the FED and other criminal elites do and it is upon us.”  He is not alone in this opinion, although most wouldn't use the term "depression.".

For my part, I will continue to follow NTSM guidance and exit the stock market when analysis suggests it.

NTMS SUMMARY
The NTSM analysis is BUY today. 

I bought back into the stock market at S&P 500, 1155 on 7 Oct after the 6 Oct NTSM buy signal.  I remain 100% long in the long term portfolio (100% stocks in the 401k.). (See the page “How to Use the NTSM System” – the link is on the right side of this page). 

I am 90% long in the trading portfolio…and still cautiously optimistic.
Just a reminder: 100% invested in stocks is way too much for most rational folks.   Don’t do it unless you have a high tolerance for risk.

Tuesday, December 20, 2011

Good Spanish bond auction; improvement in Germany; jump in U.S. housing starts; market technicals; short covering – we had it all today

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks surged at the open Tuesday, supported by a better Spanish bond auction, data showing an improvement in the German economic outlook and a jump in U.S. housing starts. – Full article at http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-surge-on-europe-data-us-housing-2011-12-20?siteid=yhoof2

The S&P 500 ended up about 3% today to 1241 on normal, non-Holiday volume.  VIX was down 7% to 23.22.

So we got some good news today; add in technicals,(the major indices were at their lower support lines which probably woke-up the buy-the-dip crowd); throw in some short covering and what a day.   The TV talking heads breathlessly reported that we haven’t had that big a move since forever (10 October by my count); but really we had a 2.92% up day at the end of November so this isn’t that unusual.

The Morgan Stanley Cyclical index (^CYC) outperformed the S&P 500 by 0.8% and that is good.  That is something to watch since we expect the ^CYC will outperform the S&P if investors are betting that the economy will avoid recession.

Today’s big move up raises a caution flag; can the S&P 500 get above its recent high of 1261 on 7 December?  I’ll watch that too, and earnings.  Oracle missed today.  They never miss so we'll need to pay attention to earnings.  Plenty of worries on a good-day.

The NTSM analysis moved back up to a BUY today. 

I bought back into the stock market at S&P 500, 1155 on 7 Oct after the 6 Oct NTSM buy signal.  I remain 100% long in the long term portfolio (100% stocks in the 401k.). (See the page “How to Use the NTSM System” – the link is on the right side of this page). 

I am 90% long in the trading portfolio…and still cautiously optimistic.

Just a reminder: 100% invested in stocks is way too much for most rational folks.   Don’t do it unless you have a high tolerance for risk.

Monday, December 19, 2011

The trend remains up...until it’s not

I suggested on 8 Dec that the S&P wanted to retreat to its lower trend line and we shouldn’t be too concerned.  Well, here it is; the S&P backed up to where I have pegged the lower trend line. 

NTSM uses a unique method of spotting the trend line.  Many would look at the below chart and say we are in a down trend – not me.  As always, it won’t be too much longer before we find out who is right.

It is curious that all we hear on CNBC and around the web is how bad things are and the markets can’t go up.  If that is the case, it is odd that the NTMS sentiment indicator (based on selected RYDEX leveraged funds) is now at 56%-bulls as of yesterday’s close. It was only 44%-bulls just 2-weeks ago. 

One cautionary note: For the past month or so, the Morgan Stanley Cyclical index (^CYC) has underperformed the S&P 500. That is an indication that more investors are concerned about recession and may be a predictor of actual recession.     

The NTSM analysis dropped to HOLD today. 

The future of NTSM (i.e., whether it switches to sell) depends on the VIX indicator.   Today the VIX indicator is still positive on the market, and until proven otherwise, I am too.

I bought back into the stock market at S&P 500, 1155 on 7 Oct after the 6 Oct NTSM buy signal.  I remain 100% long in the long term portfolio (100% stocks in the 401k.). (See the page “How to Use the NTSM System” – the link is on the right side of this page). 

I am 90% long in the trading portfolio…and still cautiously optimistic.

Just a reminder: 100% invested in stocks is way too much for most rational folks.   Don’t do it unless you have a high tolerance for risk.

Friday, December 16, 2011

Bond Yields Keep Dropping – what do they know that we don’t?

The S&P 500 ended up about 1/3% today to 1220 as the “I-don’t-believe-it” rally continues.

I said a few days ago that it looked like the S&P wanted to drop to its lower trend line.  That is about where I think the S&P has been recently since I peg the lower trend line at around 1200.  The trends are murky now, because we don’t have enough points to establish trend lines (unless I am wrong and the trend is still down).  I still think we go up from here, but that seems to be far from a universal belief.  Just look at the bond market.

The Yield on the 10-yr Bond dropped to 1.85% today in a “flight to safety”.  The Bond Ghouls seem to be pricing big problems for the Stock market.  Why else would anyone buy bonds yielding less than 2%?  I noted yesterday why one major European hedge fund is buying US treasuries and German bonds and NO stocks of any kind.

I'm sort of in-between.  While I am insanely over committed in the stock market (100% in stocks is insane), I will exit stocks entirely if I see deterioration in markets.  I am counting on the NTSM system to get me out before I take significant losses.

So let’s look at NTMS indicators and see where they stand now.

SENTIMENT is neutral at 57%-bulls.  The current level of sentiment means that we have room to go higher.

PRICE is bullish.  Up-moves have been significantly larger than down-moves.

VOLUME is neutral.  As I’ve written before, the NTSM volume indicator is a variant of “on-balance-volume” (Google that term if you want to get a rough idea of what we are doing.)  From where the indicator stands today, up-days will likely push this to a buy and down days will send this indicator to a sell.

VIX is still looking good as it continues to fall.

Overall the NTSM system is BUY, but a buy at this point just means NTSM remains positive on the market. The important buy was on 6 October.

I bought back into the stock market at S&P 500, 1155 on 7 Oct after the 6 Oct NTSM buy signal.  I remain 100% long in the long term portfolio (100% stocks in the 401k.). (See the page “How to Use the NTSM System” – the link is on the right side of this page). 

I am 90% long in the trading portfolio…and still cautiously optimistic.

Just a reminder: 100% invested in stocks is way too much for most rational folks.   Don’t do it unless you have a high tolerance for risk.

One more thought…in the last 3-years, the US debt has gone from 10.6 trillion to 15 trillion dollars.

Thursday, December 15, 2011

Europe – the most boring crisis ever…

Michael Platt, the founder of the $30 billion hedge fund, BlueCrest, said on Bloomberg, “…most of the banks in Europe are insolvent and the situation in the region is "completely unstable."  He went on to say that all of his funds are in short–term US and German treasuries.  Wow!  That’s a conservative position that shows he believes that collapse of the banks is coming.  He said the big money to be made in a crisis is late not early and this situation looks worse than 2008. 

The WSJ called last week’s European summit a “failure” in several different articles.  As we noted here, they didn’t address the problem with the sovereign debt and further, some of the agreements they made are already are being watered down in Italy. 

Today, Thursday, the S&P 500 went up 0.3% to 1216.  I was looking for a bigger bounce, but we’ll take what we can get at this point.

The NTSM system responded by moving back to BUY today, but a buy now just means NTSM remains positive on the market. The important buy was on 6 October.

I bought back into the stock market at S&P 500, 1155 on 7 Oct after the 6 Oct NTSM buy signal.  I remain 100% long in the long term portfolio (100% stocks in the 401k.). (See the page “How to Use the NTSM System” – the link is on the right side of this page). 

I am 90% long in the trading portfolio. 

Just a reminder: 100% invested in stocks is way too much for most rational folks.   Don’t do it unless you have a high tolerance for risk.

Wednesday, December 14, 2011

Bernanke concerned about European sovereign debt

“Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke told Republican senators on Capitol Hill on Wednesday that he's concerned about European sovereign debt problems and he warned that the economic unraveling of Europe would have a negative impact on the U.S. economy.

"He's very concerned," Hatch told CNN. "He did say that if they can't get their things in order, it could affect us. A collapse over there would be detrimental to us." – Full article at CNN/Money http://money.cnn.com/2011/12/14/news/economy/bernanke_europe_senate_gop/index.htm?iid=HP_LN

Europe was probably the cause for a down day today since Italy’s yield on relatively short term debt again moved up to unaffordable levels.

Today, Wednesday, the S&P 500 went down another 1% to 1213.

Technically, I think we are at or near the bottom channel line which would be confirmed by an up day tomorrow.  We’ve had quite a few down days this month so we are due for a bounce.  I am still optimistic, but that will change quickly if we go down much further.

The NTSM system responded by dropping to HOLD today, moving us closer to a sell signal.  I still think the odds favor the S&P moving up from here.  (Yeah, I know...trade what you see, not what you think.)

I bought back into the stock market at S&P 500, 1155 on 7 Oct after the 6 Oct NTSM buy signal.  I remain 100% long in the long term portfolio (100% stocks in the 401k.). (See the page “How to Use the NTSM System” – the link is on the right side of this page). 

I am 90% long in the trading portfolio. 

Just a reminder: 100% invested in stocks is way too much for most rational folks.   Don’t do it unless you have a high tolerance for risk.

Tuesday, December 13, 2011

Market Tanks on the Fed Statement


Here’s an excerpt from the Fed’s press release:

“Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in November suggests that the economy has been expanding moderately, notwithstanding some apparent slowing in global growth. While indicators point to some improvement in overall labor market conditions, the unemployment rate remains elevated.

Household spending has continued to advance, but business fixed investment appears to be increasing less rapidly and the housing sector remains depressed.

Inflation has moderated since earlier in the year, and longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

The Committee continues to expect a moderate pace of economic growth over coming quarters and consequently anticipates that the unemployment rate will decline only gradually toward levels that the Committee judges to be consistent with its dual mandate.”

That actually sounds like decent news (slightly better than last month), but the Market was up better than ½% when the Federal Reserve made the announcement; it finished down nearly 1% so it was a big turn-around and would seem to be directly related to the Fed’s action, or perhaps lack thereof. 

Apparently, many were hoping for some action by the Fed to further stimulate the economy to stave off perceived recessionary pressures from Europe.

“The only thing that could make investors happy today is if the Fed stood on the corner handing out paper money to people passing by,” said Jack Ablin, CIO of Harris Bank.

The S&P 500 was down 0.9% to 1226 and the VIX fell 1%.

The NTSM analysis remains positive with a BUY rating, but a buy at this point just means NTSM remains positive on the market.  The important buy was on 6 October.

I bought back into the stock market at S&P 500, 1155 on 7 Oct after the 6 Oct NTSM buy signal.  I remain 100% long in the long term portfolio (100% stocks in the 401k.). (See the page “How to Use the NTSM System” – the link is on the right side of this page). 

I am 90% long in the trading portfolio. 

Just a reminder: 100% invested in stocks is way too much for most rational folks.   Don’t do it unless you have a high tolerance for risk.

Monday, December 12, 2011

John Hussman, PhD, urges caution

John Hussman, PhD, noted in his 12 December 2011 Weekly Market Comment,
“The present market environment warrants unusual concern, in my view. Based on a wide variety of evidence and its typical market implications over an ensemble of dozens of subsets of historical data, the expected return/risk profile of the stock market has shifted to hard-negative. This places us in a tightly defensive position. This isn't really a forecast in the sense that shifts in the evidence even over a period of a few weeks could move us to adjust our investment stance, but here and now we observe conditions that have often produced abrupt crash-like plunges. This combination of evidence includes elevated valuations, overbullish sentiment, market internals best characterized as a "whipsaw trap" on the basis of typical follow-through, heightened credit strains, and clear evidence (on reliable forward-looking indicators) of oncoming recession, among other factors.” - Full Comment may be found at Hussman Funds

This scenario is always a possibility, but if that were the case would we have observed the Market action that we have seen in the recent weeks?  Specifically, we have seen the S&P 500 complete a correction cycle on 25 November that had lasted 17-1/2 weeks.  It doesn’t seem like the S&P would enter another downturn so quickly since there hasn’t been any significant news (so far) that would send us careening down.   It could happen though, and I expect that it will; as always, the timing is difficult (if not impossible) to call. My crystal ball is quite foggy and the NTSM system doesn’t predict the future either.

Today, Monday, the S&P 500 went down 1.5% to 1236.

If we continue down, NTMS will give a sell signal, but that should be obvious.  It could happen in a few days or not at all.  My feeling is we won’t get a sell before Christmas, but I’ll wait and see.

The NTSM system is still BUY today. 

I bought back into the stock market at S&P 500, 1155 on 7 Oct after the 6 Oct NTSM buy signal.  I remain 100% long in the long term portfolio (100% stocks in the 401k.). (See the page “How to Use the NTSM System” – the link is on the right side of this page). 

I am 90% long in the trading portfolio. 

Just a reminder: 100% invested in stocks is way too much for most rational folks.   Don’t do it unless you have a high tolerance for risk.

Friday, December 9, 2011

Navigate the Stock Market remains BUY


You may recall that the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB)  has been investigating Boeing for planning to transfer airline manufacturing jobs from Seattle to a non-union shop in South Carolina.  NLRB threatened to stop the move.

That was an amazing story.  The US Government was trying to tell a private Corporation where they could do business.  (I found that astounding.)  This one would have been a Supreme Court case for the ages.  Today, “Boeing and the machinists union have reached a deal that creates new union jobs in the Seattle area in exchange for the machinists dropping any opposition to the South Carolina plant.” – Los Angeles Times. Full story at: http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/money_co/2011/12/nlrb-and-boeing-and-whats-next.html 

Europe has been saved exactly as we predicted.  They’ve agreed to a new Treaty and that is good news.  But there was no agreement to backstop the Banks so when Greece fails (and that’s the expectation), the risk to the European financial system still remains.  In that respect, little changed today, but the news may be just good enough to allow the market to continue upward.

Today, Friday, the S&P 500 went up 1.7% to 1255 while the VIX fell about 14%. 
(Good news on the VIX.)

The NTSM analysis remains BUY. 

I bought back into the stock market at S&P 500, 1155 on 7 Oct after the 6 Oct NTSM buy signal.  I remain 100% long in the long term portfolio (100% stocks in the 401k.). (See the page “How to Use the NTSM System” – the link is on the right side of this page). 
 
I am 90% long in the trading portfolio. 
 
Just a reminder: 100% invested in stocks is way too much for most rational folks.   Don’t do it unless you have a high tolerance for risk.

Thursday, December 8, 2011

CORRECTION…SORT OF…

In David Wessel’s “CAPITAL” column in the WSJ yesterday, he said that the Fed had only loaned a total of 1.6-trillion in emergency loans at the December 2008 crisis peak. 

Conversely we have former Congressman Alan Grayson’s comment that I posted yesterday summarizing the July 2011 GAO report on the Federal Reserve; “Page 131 - The total lending for the Fed's "broad-based emergency programs" was $16,115,000,000,000. That's right, more than $16 trillion.”

I went to the source, the GAO report page 131.  Sure enough, it was 16-trillion, but there was a catch. 

The data from Table 8 on page 131 of the GAO report counted aggregate loans.  In other words, if  (quoting from the report) “…an overnight…loan of $10 billion that was renewed daily at the same level for 30 business days would result in an aggregate amount borrowed of $300 billion although the institution, in effect, borrowed only $10 billion over 30 days.”  So 16-trillion is a correct number but it covers aggregate loans that only an accountant could love. 

I’ll close with Mr. Wessel’s comment regarding an earlier Bloomberg report; “There’s plenty to argue about, without turning to inflated numbers.  The actual facts are stark enough.”  

Today, Thursday, the S&P 500 went down about 2% to 1234 while the VIX rose about 7%. 

It looks to me like the S&P 500 is falling from the top of its channel and it may retreat back to the lower channel line as investors worry about Europe.  That would mean that a 5% drop would be nothing to worry about - unless our indicators begin to break down. 

I heard PBS commentator Neal Conan, in a tongue in cheek comment, call the European debt crisis the “most boring crisis ever.”  Great comment! 

I continue to hope that we’ll get some good news for the Holidays out of Europe, but perhaps not the end-all solution that the news media keeps saying we must have.  This is a complex mess involving numerous nations so it may take another round of give and take before it is resolved.

The NTSM analysis remains BUY, but the VIX indicator moved into neutral territory. 

Both Price and Volume are still signaling Buy while Sentiment is neutral at about 50% Bulls. 

I bought back into the stock market at S&P 500, 1155 on 7 Oct after the 6 Oct NTSM buy signal.  I remain 100% long in the long term portfolio (100% stocks in the 401k.). (See the page “How to Use the NTSM System” – the link is on the right side of this page). 

I am 90% long in the trading portfolio. 

Just a reminder: 100% invested in stocks is way too much for most rational folks.   Don’t do it unless you have a high tolerance for risk.

Wednesday, December 7, 2011

The GAO Audit of the Federal Reserve – Money for Nothin’

Alan Grayson, Former Congressman from Florida’s 8th District had an article in the Huffington Post titled "The Fed Bailouts: Money for Nothing.”  This was a great, if somewhat scary, summary of the GAO audit of the Federal Reserve.  Some of Grayson’s summary comments follow:

“1) In the case of TARP, at least The People's representatives got a vote. In the case of the Fed's bailouts, which were roughly 20 times as substantial (my comment - unbelievably that’s 16-trillion dollars), there was never any vote. Unelected functionaries, with all sorts of ties to Wall Street, handed out trillions of dollars to Wall Street. That's not how a democracy should function, or even can function.

2) The notion that this was all without risk, just because the Fed can keep printing money, is both laughable and cryable (if that were a word). Leaving aside the example of Germany's hyperinflation in 1923, we have the more recent examples of Iceland (75% of GNP gone when the central bank took over three failed banks) and Ireland (100% of GNP gone when the central bank tried to rescue property firms).

5) The main, if not the sole, qualification for getting help from the Fed was to have lost huge amounts of money. The Fed bailouts rewarded failure, and penalized success...The Fed helped the losers to squander and destroy even more capital.

6) During all the time that the Fed was stuffing money into the pockets of failed banks, many Americans couldn't borrow a dime for a home, a car, or anything else. If the Fed had extended $26 trillion in credit to the American people instead of Wall Street, would there be 24 million Americans today who can't find a full-time job?

And here's what bothers me most about all this: it can happen again. I've called the GAO report a bailout autopsy. But it's an autopsy of the undead.” - Alan Grayson


Today, Wednesday, the S&P 500 went up 0.2% while the VIX rose almost 2%.  As I said yesterday, and the day before, that’s an indication that the Options market is not sold on the direction of the market since the VIX usually moves opposite to the S&P. 

I saw indications of high call options mentioned on a Discussion board (call options are on the buy side) so perhaps the rise in VIX will be a happy event.  In theory, the VIX just predicts the magnitude of future moves in the market; not the direction.  In any event, VIX is still falling at a reasonable rate (over the longer run) and our VIX indicator is still signaling buy.

Now, for fun, let’s look at the 1966 Bear Market to see if we are presently following the Bear Market script.  (Engineers have an odd idea of fun.)  We are 11-years into the present Bear market and the correction that ended 25 November 2011 was roughly 29% below the high of this Bear Market (high about 1550 in Sep 2007).

11-years into the 1966 bear market the Dow made lows 25% below the high of the 1966 Bear market (high about 1000).  The Dow went on to make a run upward of 16% before falling in another Bear cycle.

If we go up 16% from the 1099 low we are in the range of 1275-1300.  I don't put too much faith in this sort of analysis, but it is interesting.  A lot of experts are suggesting that 2012 will be a tough year, so who knows? 

I think we’ll make 1290 by year-end and that’s up a little from my previous guess.   (It is just a guess – there is nothing in the NTSM analysis that predicts the future.)  I think the Euro mess will continue on as new “final-solution” agreements are made and this time they’ll keep their pledges…I do have a bridge I’d like to sell.   

The overall NTSM analysis remains BUY. 

I bought back into the stock market at S&P 500, 1155 on 7 Oct after the 6 Oct NTSM buy signal.  I remain 100% long in the long term portfolio (100% stocks in the 401k.). (See the page “How to Use the NTSM System” – the link is on the right side of this page). 

I am 90% long in the trading portfolio. 

Just a reminder: 100% invested in stocks is way too much for most rational folks.   Don’t do it unless you have a high tolerance for risk.

Tuesday, December 6, 2011

Navigate the Stock Market is Beating Hedge Funds


Turns out the Navigate the Stock Market system is beating the average Hedge Fund.  From CNN/Money at: http://money.cnn.com/2011/12/05/markets/hedge_funds_pensions/index.htm?iid=HP_River
.
Hedge funds overall have underperformed the S&P 500 for 2011.


NTSM is beating the S&P 500 by about 12% at present.

Today, Monday, the S&P 500 went up 0.1% while the VIX rose another 1%.  As I said yesterday, that’s an indication that the Options market is not sold on the direction of the market since the VIX usually moves opposite to the S&P. 

The rise in VIX may indicate options buying in advance of the European summit which should wrap-up with a solution to the Euro-mess Friday and then we won’t have to worry about it anymore.  Hardly!  This probably isn’t the end by any means and we are likely to see no clear cut resolution so it may be more of the same muddling around. 

That may be good for the stock market though.  It likes muddling compared to disaster and disaster is the result some are suggesting if the Euro collapses since it will leave European banks owed a lot of money by the weaker sisters in the Euro.  The fear is systemic bank failure over there with contagion of some sort spreading here.  Most US banks apparently are in good enough shape to handle it, at least that is my take on the consensus from various sources and I’m not too confident about that.  So it’s hard to know how to play this.  Greece is likely to fail, but is it going to happen soon or further down the road? 

At present, my plan is to stay fully invested and follow the guidance of the NTSM system.

The NTSM analysis remains BUY. 

I bought back into the stock market at S&P 500, 1155 on 7 Oct after the 6 Oct NTSM buy signal.  I remain 100% long in the long term portfolio (100% stocks in the 401k.). (See the page “How to Use the NTSM System” – the link is on the right side of this page). 

I am 90% long in the trading portfolio. 

Just a reminder: 100% invested in stocks is way too much for most rational folks.   Don’t do it unless you have a high tolerance for risk.

Monday, December 5, 2011

Institute for Supply Management index of service activity fell to 52 in November

CNBC reported today: “Economic data released on Monday showed that U.S. service companies, which employ 90 percent of the U.S. workforce, expanded at slower pace in November, and new orders for U.S. factory orders fell in October, suggesting a possible softening in the manufacturing sector.”  Full story at: http://www.cnbc.com/id/45552694

 The  Institute for Supply Management reported that its  index of service activity was 52.9 in October and fell to 52 in November.  This continues a trend of falling data for the ISM service index…AND…it also continues the trend of mixed economic data overall. 

John Hussman, PhD, noted in his 5 December 2011 Weekly Market Comment, “…recent U.S. economic reports have improved modestly from the clearly negative momentum that we saw in late-summer. Unfortunately, the underlying recessionary pressures we observe are largely unchanged. When we take the present set of economic evidence in its entirety, we see very little evidence of a meaningful reduction in recession risks. Indeed, the evidence from the rest of the world, both developed and developing, reinforces the expectation that the global economy is approaching a fresh contraction.”  He suggested that the chances of recession based on his analysis of 20-binary recession indicators are around 85%. – Full comment at: http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc111205.htm

That’s just another indication that we’ll need to be on our toes.  I still think John Hussman is right, but I am not an economist.  My opinion is based on Mr. Hussman’s rigorous methodology.  As always, it’s the timing that is hard to call.

Today, Monday, the S&P 500 went up 1% while the VIX rose slightly over 1%.  That’s an indication that the Options market is not sold on the direction of the market since the VIX usually moves opposite to the S&P.  The rise in VIX was not enough to affect the NTSM rating.

The NTSM analysis remains BUY. 

I bought back into the stock market at S&P 500, 1155 on 7 Oct after the 6 Oct NTSM buy signal.  I remain 100% long in the long term portfolio (100% stocks in the 401k.). (See the page “How to Use the NTSM System” – the link is on the right side of this page). 

I am 90% long in the trading portfolio. 

Just a reminder: 100% invested in stocks is way too much for most rational folks.   Don’t do it unless you have a high tolerance for risk.

Friday, December 2, 2011

The unemployment rate dropped to 8.6% as Jobs increased

Reuters reported, "Nonfarm payrolls increased by 120,000 jobs, the Labor Department said on Friday, and the jobless rate dropped to 8.6 percent, the lowest since March 2009, from 9 percent in October.  The private sector added 140,000 jobs and government employment fell 20,000. – Full article at:

That’s a little better than was expected and the jobs picture continues in the right direction.  Europe remains a concern, though. 

I like the fact that there was almost no profit taking after the huge run up in the stock market this week.  There are a lot of investors still on the sidelines.  I think they will start to move in and the market should continue up from here, barring further bad financial news (especially from Europe).  The experts don't expect a good solution out of Europe so we'll have to pay attention.

A Hedge Fund analyst blogged at Zero Hedge, there’s no chance for the little investor.  He wrote, “The finance industry is a complete scam, designed to funnel money from the 99% investing public into the hands of the top 0.1%. Sure, some of you will make good money, but stastically, the rest…will lose…You have better odds going to a casino and playing slots, the worst-paying game in the house, but still better than the stock market…you lack information and exposure. You have no idea what is going on in the market besides what you see on the news - while hedge funds have analysts working around the clock.” Full article at http://www.zerohedge.com/news/hedge-fund-insider-explains-why-retail-investors-should-flee-stock-market?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+zerohedge/feed+(zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline,+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero)

The purpose of NTMS is to provide some useful research and data analysis to help with buy-sell signals in the market.  Frankly, NTMS is beating some hedge funds.  Now all I need is a couple of super computers and a research staff…

The NTSM analysis remains BUY.

I bought back into the stock market at S&P 500, 1155 on 7 Oct after the 6 Oct NTSM buy signal.  I remain 100% long in the long term portfolio (100% stocks in the 401k.). (See the page “How to Use the NTSM System” – the link is on the right side of this page). 

I am 90% long in the trading portfolio. 

Just a reminder: 100% invested in stocks is way too much for most rational folks.   Don’t do it unless you have a high tolerance for risk.

Thursday, December 1, 2011

T. Rowe Price – Increased Risk, but no recession forecast

T. Rowe Price, the mutual fund/brokerage company said in a recent letter to investors, “Our base case does not include a recession, but we expect GDP growth to be only a modestly positive 1.7% in Q4 2011 and 2.0% in 2012, somewhat below the current Wall Street consensus for the end of 2011 but in line for 2012.  A "growth recession," in which real GDP growth is positive but unemployment rises, is a possibility.”


The Navigate the Stock Market analysis remains BUY today…a positive indication for the near term, but it doesn’t change the bullish stance that NTMS has maintained since 7 October. (Bullish because I have been fully invested since then.)

I bought back into the stock market at S&P 500, 1155 on 7 Oct after the 6 Oct NTSM buy signal.  I remain 100% long in the long term portfolio (100% stocks in the 401k.). (See the page “How to Use the NTSM System” – the link is on the right side of this page). 

I am 90% long in the trading portfolio. 

Just a reminder: 100% invested in stocks is way too much for most rational folks.   Don’t do it unless you have a high tolerance for risk.