Personal Spending … PCE Price Index … Chicago PMI … Recession Has Already Started … Stock Market Analysis… ETF Trading … Dow 30 Ranking

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

 

PERSONAL SPENDING / PERSONAL INCOME (CNBC)

“Consumer spending rose 0.4% as households boosted purchases of motor vehicles and spent more at restaurants and on hotel accommodation. Consumer spending in May was supported by a 0.5% rise in personal income, which matched April’s increase.” Story at…

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/28/personal-income-and-spending-may-2019.html

 

PCE PRICE INDEX (fxstreet.com)

“According to the monthly data published by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, the Federal Reserve preferred gauge of inflation, rose 1.6% in May to match the previous reading and the market expectation.” Story at…

https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-annual-core-pce-price-index-arrives-at-16-as-expected-201906281233

The numbers show inflation is in check.

 

CHICAGO PMI (MarketWatch)

“A measure of business conditions in the Chicago region fell in June into contraction territory for the first time since January 2017. The Chicago PMI business barometer declined to 49.7 in June…” Story at…

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/chicago-pmi-falls-into-contraction-in-june-2019-06-28

 

SLOWDOWN (RECESSION) HAS ALREADY STARTED (Business Insider)

“Those who constantly ask "where is the recession?", well, these findings are dedicated to you. The recession likely already started in the first quarter, and think how liberating it is to know that the stock market meltdown in Q4 wasn't for naught. And that the bond market has continued to price in the same situation even as the stock market gains momentum on the hope that Fed rate cuts will save us from a severe downturn. I wouldn't be holding my breath…” Commentary at…

https://www.businessinsider.com/next-recession-top-indicators-show-slowdown-has-started-david-rosenberg-2019-6

 

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS         

-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.6% to 2942.

-VIX slipped about 5% to 15.08.

-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 2.006%.

 

I expressed some concern that the Smart Money has been selling lately, based on late-day action over the last 2-weeks. That concern was reduced a lot today as the S&P 500 jumped 10 points in the final half hour of trading. As a result, the Smart Money top-indicator switched back to neutral. Overall, a number of indicators improved.

 

My daily sum of 20 Indicators increased from -6 to +5 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish) while the 10-day smoothed version that negates the daily fluctuations remained +1. (These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late.) Most of these indicators are short-term.

 

I remain bullish.

 

TOP / BOTTOM INDICATOR SCALE OF 1 TO 10

Today’s Reading: 0     

Most Recent Day with a value other than Zero: -1 on 27 June (Late-Day action, top-indicator was bearish.)

(1) +10 Max Bullish / -10 Max Bearish)

(2) -4 or below is a Sell sign. +4 or better is a Buy Sign.

 

MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:

TODAY’S RANKING OF  15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)

 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.  While momentum isn’t stock performance per se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked in the top 3 Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted correctly.) XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.

*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…

http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

 

TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.

*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system. For more details, see NTSM Page at…

https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

 

FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

Market Internals improved to POSITIVE on the market.

Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.  In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on Negative – no shorting).

 

Using the Short-term indicator in 2018 in SPY would have made a 5% gain instead of a 6% loss for buy-and-hold. The methodology was Buy on a POSITIVE indication and Sell on a NEGATIVE indication and stay out until the next POSITIVE indication. The back-test included 13-buys and 13-sells, or a trade every 2-weeks on average.  

 

My current stock allocation is about 55% invested in stocks as of 4 June 2019. This is based on the improved indicators 3 June and my recommendation to increase stock holdings if we saw strong buying on 4 June. As a retiree, I am conservatively positioned with a balanced portfolio.  You may be comfortable with a higher % invested in stocks – that’s OK.

 

INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR

Friday, the PRICE indicator was positive; VOLUME, VIX and SENTIMENT indicators were neutral. Overall the Long-Term Indicator remained NEUTRAL.

Jobless Claims … GDP-Third Estimate … Stock Market Analysis… ETF Trading … Dow 30 Ranking

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

 

JOBLESS CLAIMS (Reuters)

“The number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits rose more than expected last week, but there is still no sign of a significant pickup in layoffs even as economic growth has shifted into lower gear. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 227,000 for the week ended June 22… Story at…

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-unemployment/us-weekly-jobless-claims-increase-more-than-expected-idUSKCN1TS1V2

 

GDP (MarketWatch)

“The pace of growth in the U.S. economy in the first three months of 2019 was left at 3.1%, revised government figures show, as stronger business investment offset a weaker increase in consumer spending.”  Story at…

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/first-quarter-gdp-left-at-31-as-stronger-business-investment-offsets-weaker-consumer-spending-2019-06-27

 

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS         

-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 0.4% to 2925.

-VIX slipped about 2% to 15.82.

-The yield on the 10-year Treasury dropped to 2.013%.

 

Cyclical stocks are still out-performing the S&P 500 on a 10-day basis, a bullish signal. Utilities are still out-performing relative to the S&P 500 (a bearish sign), but not by much. On the whole, this suggests that this pullback may not get too much farther.    

 

My daily sum of 20 Indicators declined from -3 to -6 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish) while the 10-day smoothed version that negates the daily fluctuations dropped from +13 to +1. (These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late.) Most of these indicators are short-term. The negative numbers are mostly on new-high/new-low data and comparisons to the Cyclicals and Utility ETFs. Some of these indicators are disagreeing with each other and might more correctly be considered neutral.  

 

The most troubling negative signal is the Smart Money Indicator, based on late day action. It has reached extreme levels and is signaling a top.  We need more than one indicator to call a top, so for now we won't be too concerned.

 

Still, I remain bullish.

 

TOP / BOTTOM INDICATOR SCALE OF 1 TO 10

Today’s Reading: -1   

Most Recent Day with a value other than Zero: -1 on 27 June (The Smart Money {Late-Day action} top-indicator was bearish.)

(1) +10 Max Bullish / -10 Max Bearish)

(2) -4 or below is a Sell sign. +4 or better is a Buy Sign.

 

MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:

TODAY’S RANKING OF  15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)

 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.  While momentum isn’t stock performance per se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked in the top 3 Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted correctly.) XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.

*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…

http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

 

TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.

*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system. For more details, see NTSM Page at…

https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

 

THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

Market Internals remained NEUTRAL on the market.

Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.  In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on Negative – no shorting).

 

Using the Short-term indicator in 2018 in SPY would have made a 5% gain instead of a 6% loss for buy-and-hold. The methodology was Buy on a POSITIVE indication and Sell on a NEGATIVE indication and stay out until the next POSITIVE indication. The back-test included 13-buys and 13-sells, or a trade every 2-weeks on average.  

 

My current stock allocation is about 55% invested in stocks as of 4 June 2019. This is based on the improved indicators 3 June and my recommendation to increase stock holdings if we saw strong buying on 4 June. As a retiree, I am conservatively positioned with a balanced portfolio.  You may be comfortable with a higher % invested in stocks – that’s OK.

 

INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR

Thursday, the PRICE indicator was positive; VOLUME, VIX and SENTIMENT indicators were neutral. Overall the Long-Term Indicator remained NEUTRAL.

Durable Orders … Crude Oil Inventory … Stock Market Analysis… ETF Trading … Dow 30 Ranking

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

 

DURABLE ORDERS (MarketWatch)

“Orders for U.S. durable goods fell in May for the third time in four months, held down by Boeing’s struggles with its suspended 737 Max jet. Yet business investment perked up in a somewhat reassuring sign that companies haven’t frozen spending amid a tense trade fight with China and signs of a slower U.S. economy. Orders for long-lasting goods slid 1.3% last month…

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/durable-goods-orders-drop-13-in-may-but-business-investment-picks-up-in-reassuring-sign-2019-06-26

 

CRUDE OIL INVENTORIES (OilPrice.com)

“A day after the American Petroleum Institute pushed oil prices higher by estimating an inventory draw of as much as 7.55 million barrels for last week, the Energy Information Administration reported a draw of 12.8 million barrels in crude oil inventories, pushing prices further up significantly.” Story at…

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-Spikes-On-Major-Inventory-Draw.html

 

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS         

-Wednesday the S&P 500 dropped about 0.1% to 2913.

-VIX slipped about 0.4% to 16.21.

-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 2.049%.

 

In a recent switch, Cyclical stocks are now out-performing the S&P 500 on a 10-day basis, a bullish signal. Utilities are still out-performing relative to the S&P 500 (a bearish sign), but the S&P 500 made a big jump up today relative to Utilities, on the same 10-day basis. O the whole, this suggests that this pullback may not get too much farther.    

 

My daily sum of 20 Indicators improved from -5 to -3 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish) while the 10-day smoothed version that negates the daily fluctuations dropped from +21 to +13. (These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late.) Most of these indicators are short-term.

 

I remain bullish.

 

TOP / BOTTOM INDICATOR SCALE OF 1 TO 10

Today’s Reading: 0     

Most Recent Day with a value other than Zero: -1 on 24 June (RSI was bearish.)

(1) +10 Max Bullish / -10 Max Bearish)

(2) -4 or below is a Sell sign. +4 or better is a Buy Sign.

 

MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:

TODAY’S RANKING OF  15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)

 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.  While momentum isn’t stock performance per se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked in the top 3 Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted correctly.) XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.

*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…

http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

 

TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.

*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system. For more details, see NTSM Page at…

https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

 

WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

Market Internals remained NEUTRAL on the market.

Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.  In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on Negative – no shorting).

 

Using the Short-term indicator in 2018 in SPY would have made a 5% gain instead of a 6% loss for buy-and-hold. The methodology was Buy on a POSITIVE indication and Sell on a NEGATIVE indication and stay out until the next POSITIVE indication. The back-test included 13-buys and 13-sells, or a trade every 2-weeks on average.  

 

My current stock allocation is about 55% invested in stocks as of 4 June 2019. This is based on the improved indicators 3 June and my recommendation to increase stock holdings if we saw strong buying on 4 June. As a retiree, I am conservatively positioned with a balanced portfolio.  You may be comfortable with a higher % invested in stocks – that’s OK.

 

INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR

Wednesday, the PRICE indicator was positive; VOLUME, VIX and SENTIMENT indicators were neutral. Overall the Long-Term Indicator remained NEUTRAL.

Consumer Confidence … New Home Sales … Stock Market Analysis… ETF Trading … Dow 30 Ranking

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

 

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (Conference Board)

“The Index now stands at 121.5 (1985=100), down from 131.3 in May…“After two consecutive months of improvement, Consumer Confidence declined in June to its lowest level since September 2017 (Index, 120.6),” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “The decrease in the Present Situation Index was driven by a less favorable assessment of business and labor market conditions. Consumers’ expectations regarding the short-term outlook also retreated. The escalation in trade and tariff tensions earlier this month appears to have shaken consumers’ confidence. Although the Index remains at a high level, continued uncertainty could result in further volatility in the Index and, at some point, could even begin to diminish consumers’ confidence in the expansion.” Press release at…

https://www.conference-board.org/data/consumerconfidence.cfm

 

NEW HOME SALES (MarketWatch)

“Sales fell 7.8% compared to April, but that month’s number was revised up. May sales were 3.7% lower than a year ago.” Story at…

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/new-home-sales-fall-for-the-second-month-but-year-to-date-pace-is-still-up-2019-06-25

 

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS         

-Tuesday the S&P 500 dropped about 1% to 2917.

-VIX rose about 7% to 16.28.

-The yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped to 2.003%.

 

Cyclical stocks are now out-performing the S&P 500 on a 10-day basis, a bullish signal. Perhaps the weakness we’ve been experiencing is abating? Well, maybe not.  Utilities increased their out-performance relative to the S&P 500 a bearish sign. Neither are strong signs.  

 

My daily sum of 20 Indicators dropped from -4 to -5 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish) while the 10-day smoothed version that negates the daily fluctuations improved from +33 to +21. (These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late.) Most of these indicators are short-term.

 

Still, I’m remain bullish.

 

TOP / BOTTOM INDICATOR SCALE OF 1 TO 10

Today’s Reading: 0     

Most Recent Day with a value other than Zero: -1 on 24 June (RSI was bearish.)

(1) +10 Max Bullish / -10 Max Bearish)

(2) -4 or below is a Sell sign. +4 or better is a Buy Sign.

 

MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:

TODAY’S RANKING OF  15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)

 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.  While momentum isn’t stock performance per se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked in the top 3 Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted correctly.) XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.

*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…

http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

 

TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.

*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system. For more details, see NTSM Page at…

https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

MICROSOFT is still #1 in the momentum ranking and I will continue to hold it as long as it is, but…

“Shares of Microsoft…[MSFT closed down 3.2%]…after an analyst at Jefferies raised concern about the long-term success of the company’s cloud service, Azure, relative to Amazon Web Services (AWS). “Azure will likely never see margins similar to AWS at scale, and the long-term margin of even AWS may be lower than most expect,” the analyst said.” - CNBC

 

TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

Market Internals remained NEUTRAL on the market.

Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.  In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on Negative – no shorting).

 

Using the Short-term indicator in 2018 in SPY would have made a 5% gain instead of a 6% loss for buy-and-hold. The methodology was Buy on a POSITIVE indication and Sell on a NEGATIVE indication and stay out until the next POSITIVE indication. The back-test included 13-buys and 13-sells, or a trade every 2-weeks on average.  

 

My current stock allocation is about 55% invested in stocks as of 4 June 2019. This is based on the improved indicators 3 June and my recommendation to increase stock holdings if we saw strong buying on 4 June. As a retiree, I am conservatively positioned with a balanced portfolio.  You may be comfortable with a higher % invested in stocks – that’s OK.

 

INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR

Tuesday, the PRICE indicator was positive; VOLUME, VIX and SENTIMENT indicators were neutral. Overall the Long-Term Indicator remained NEUTRAL.

Investment Strategy … Another Rate Cut? … Stock Market Analysis… ETF Trading … Dow 30 Ranking

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

 

 

INVESTMENT STRATEGY (Raymond James)

“As the S&P 500 rose above our year-end target of 2946 six months ahead of schedule, it has subsequently become expensive; the current 18.2x LTM (last twelve months) P/E is above our fair value 17.75x P/E multiple…

…Focus of the Week: We would like to see breadth improve if the advance continues. For example, the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index, as well as the small caps, have not been able to gain relative strength in the recovery. Relative improvements from those indices would reflect broadening participation and be more supportive of the market technically.” – Larry Adams, Chief Investment Officer, Private Client Group. Commentary at…

https://www.raymondjames.com/wealth-management/market-commentary-and-insights/investment-strategy

 

ANOTHER  RATE CUT - SERIOUSLY?  (Heritage Capital)

“Jay Powell & Company gave the markets exactly what they wanted on Wednesday. They threaded the needle which is no easy feat. As someone who has been very critical of the Fed, I have to give them props for not upsetting the apple cart. The problem now is that markets are pricing in a 100% chance of a interest rate cut in July which doesn’t sit well with me. If stocks continue rallying, how can the Fed really give it more juice?” - Paul Schatz  President and Chief Investment Officer Commentary at…

http://investfortomorrowblog.com/archives/4280

In other words; Is the market setting up for a big July disappointment?

 

 

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS         

-Monday the S&P 500 dipped about 0.2% to 2945.

-VIX slipped about 1% to 15.26.

-The yield on the 10-year Treasury unchanged at 2.021%.

 

I am seeing comments about a triple-top on discussion boards. A triple top is a bearish revisiting of all-time highs that has already failed twice and is about to fail again (so they say). If we have a true triple-top, then the data should show it.  We would expect the tops to occur on falling volume and decreasing breadth.  Let’s see:

We’ve had 3 tops as follows:

(1) 2931, 20 Sep 2018; Vol 3400m; 10dMA Breadth 51.5%

(2) 2946, 30 Apr 2019; Vol 3934m; 10dMA Breadth 52.3%

(3) 2954, 20 Jun 2019; Vol 4122m; 10dMA Breadth 60.6%

*Breadth = % of stocks advancing on the NYSE.

 

We see higher volume and a strengthening market on each successive top.  So far, it does not look like we need to worry about a triple top.

 

Sentiment continuing to fall. This suggests the markets can go higher.

 

Still, it looks like we may see a retreat back to the 50-dMA at about 2880. Unless something changes, a slip back to the 50-dMA would be a buy-the-dip opportunity.

 

RSI remained bearish today (3^rd day in a row), but Bollinger Bands are still in neutral territory. Bollinger Bands are close to overbought, but not there yet.  I use these indicators together so I am cautious, but still bullish. These signals could be bearish for some time.  It would take more than RSI and Bollinger Bands to call a sell.

 

Cyclical stocks are still under-performing the S&P 500 while Utilities are out- performing relative to the S&P 500. Both are bearish indications, but we have only seen a few other indicators joining the bear party.

 

The Smart Money (late day action) dropped today and has been down over a longer term.

 

My daily sum of 20 Indicators dropped from -2 to -4 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish) while the 10-day smoothed version that negates the daily fluctuations improved from +45 to +33. (These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late.) Most of these indicators are short-term.

 

Still, I’m remain bullish.

 

TOP / BOTTOM INDICATOR SCALE OF 1 TO 10

Today’s Reading: -1     

Most Recent Day with a value other than Zero: -1 on 24 June (RSI was bearish.)

(1) +10 Max Bullish / -10 Max Bearish)

(2) -4 or below is a Sell sign. +4 or better is a Buy Sign.

 

MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:

TODAY’S RANKING OF  15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)

 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.  While momentum isn’t stock performance per se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked in the top 3 Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted correctly.) XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.

*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…

http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

 

TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.

*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system. For more details, see NTSM Page at…

https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

 

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

Market Internals remained NEUTRAL on the market.

Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.  In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on Negative – no shorting).

 

Using the Short-term indicator in 2018 in SPY would have made a 5% gain instead of a 6% loss for buy-and-hold. The methodology was Buy on a POSITIVE indication and Sell on a NEGATIVE indication and stay out until the next POSITIVE indication. The back-test included 13-buys and 13-sells, or a trade every 2-weeks on average.  

 

My current stock allocation is about 55% invested in stocks as of 4 June 2019. This is based on the improved indicators 3 June and my recommendation to increase stock holdings if we saw strong buying on 4 June. As a retiree, I am conservatively positioned with a balanced portfolio.  You may be comfortable with a higher % invested in stocks – that’s OK.

 

INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR

Monday, the PRICE indicator was positive; VOLUME, VIX and SENTIMENT indicators were neutral. Overall the Long-Term Indicator dropped to a NEUTRAL indication.