Jobless Claims ... PCE Prices ... Personal Spending ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“It was Thomas Edison who brought us electricity, not the Sierra Club. It was the Wright brothers who got us off the ground, not the Federal Aviation Administration. It was Henry Ford who ended the isolation of millions of Americans by making the automobile affordable, not Ralph Nader. Those who have helped the poor the most have not been those who have gone around loudly expressing 'compassion' for the poor, but those who found ways to make industry more productive and distribution more efficient, so that the poor of today can afford things that the affluent of yesterday could only dream about.” ― Thomas Sowell
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (Fox Business)
“The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose more than expected last week as high-profile companies continue to announce major job cuts. Figures released Thursday by the Labor Department show initial claims for the week ending Feb. 24 jumped by 13,000 to 215,000...” Story at...
https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/jobless-claims-jumped-more-expected-last-week
 
PCE PRICES / PERSONAL INCOME / PERSONAL SPENDING (CNBC)
“Inflation rose in line with expectations in January, according to an important gauge the Federal Reserve uses as it deliberates cutting interest rates. The personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy costs increased 0.4% for the month and 2.8% from a year ago... The moves came amid an unexpected jump in personal income, which rose 1%, well above the forecast for 0.3%. Spending decreased 0.1% versus the estimate for a 0.2% gain.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/29/pce-inflation-january-2023-.html
 
CHICAGO PMI (Advisor Perspectives)
“The latest Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index (Chicago Business Barometer) fell to 44.0 in February from 46.0 in January, marking the third straight monthly decline.. The latest reading is worse than the 48.1 forecast and keeps the index in contraction territory for a third consecutive month.”

Commentary and charts at...
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/02/29/chicago-pmi-falls-for-3rd-straight-month-in-february
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 0.5% to 5096.
-VIX dipped about 3% to 13.40.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 4.262%.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
QLD- Added 2/20/2024
UWM – Added 1/22/2024.
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows).
INTC – Added 12/6/2023.
 
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
Salesforce reported and beat on earnings and revenue, but their guidance for 2024 was light so CRM dipped about 2% in afterhours trading on Wednesday. Apparently yhe news wasn’t as bad as it first seemed – CRM was up 3% on Thursday.
 
BA – Added 12/6/2023. I plan to hold Boeing for the time being, although my patience is running out! Technically, there is a lot of support around the 200 level.  It closed at 201.5 on 2/22/2024. If Boeing drops below 200 it will be time to bail out.
 
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position in my retirement account betting on Small Caps.
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
It is not unusual in my summary of 50 indicators to have Bear-indicators even in strong bull-markets. Now, the most concerning of the Bear-indicators are those that show the markets are stretched. For example, I mentioned that the S&P 500 was 12.2% above its 200-dMA in yesterday’s blog post. Today let’s review another worrisome indicator.
 
I track 15 ETFs in my momentum analysis that I chart daily and they form an interesting indicator. Those 15 ETFs were chosen as a cross-section of the markets. I don’t think the exact 15 are particularly important, as long as one uses a representative sample of the market. Currently, the 15 ETFs in my momentum analysis are all above their respective 120-dMAs. That’s a bearish sign, and for evidence, we look at a chart of recent history.
 

 
Before we panic though, let’s look at another chart with the same data, but going back to 2017-2018. It shows that when the % of ETFs above their 120-dMA hit 100%, there was a significant lag time before a correction occurred. In 2018, it took 4 months before there was a significant decline – in that case about 10%.

What does this mean.  We need to be on our toes and accept that a 10% decline (or more) is possible at any time. Hopefully, we’ll get some warning in the indicators before we get a decline of that magnitude.
 
In the meantime, I’ll keep a close eye on indicators and market action. Today, the news was good - The Summary of About 50-Indicators moved well to the bullish side and breadth looks good.
 
8.4% of all issues traded on the NYSE made new, 52-week highs when the S&P 500 made a new all-time-high, today, 29 February 2024. This confirms, once again, that the rally is healthy with decent participation in the advance.
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Now there are 3 bear-signs and 18-Bull. Wednesday there were 6 bear-signs and 15-Bull signs.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained HOLD: PRICE was positive; VOLUME, SENTIMENT & VIX are neutral.
 
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)
 
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
 
BOTTOM LINE
I remain cautiously bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:

The DOW added Amazon to the Dow 30. I’ll add it, but it’s a time consuming effort and may take awhile. Walmart split 3 for 1 today and that took some manipulation in the momentum ranking, too.
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 

...My current invested position is about 70% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting continuation of bullish market action.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October.

GDP ... CRUDE INVENTORIES ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“When we talk about the children of the community, they are a children of the community... 
...It is time for us to do what we have been doing, and that time is every day... 
...The significance of the passage of time, right? The significance of the passage of time. So when you think about it, there is great significance to the passage of time...
...So Ukraine is a country in Europe. It exists next to another country called Russia. Russia is a bigger country. Russia is a powerful country. Russia decided to invade a smaller country called Ukraine. So, basically, that’s wrong.” – Kamala Harris, Vice President of the United States, as published by "The Telegraph," a British Newspaper. 
 
“Paul Krugman, 2008 recipient of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences and New York Times columnist, wrote on Jan 9 that continued public negativity around the economy is due to MAGA’s anger that Trump isn’t president.” From...
MAGA to Blame for Belief That the Economy is Bad, Nobel-Winning Economist Argues (msn.com)
My cmt: Nope.  The economy is fine and may be running too hot.  The public negativity is due to inflation. While inflation is lower than it was last year, that just means that prices are going up more slowly. If all were well, no amount of MAGA whining would convince the public otherwise.
 
GDP-2ND ESTIMATE (AP News)
“The U.S. economy grew at a robust 3.2% annual pace from October through December, propelled by healthy consumer spending, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday in a slight downgrade from its initial estimate.” Story at...
https://apnews.com/article/economy-inflation-federal-reserve-gdp-unemployment-22f096fe881d4a48314c67d6f4cc67ba
 
CRUDE INVENTORIES (EIA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 4.2 million barrels from the previous week. At 447.2 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 1% below the five year average for this time of year.” Story at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.2% to 5070.
-VIX rose about 3% to 13.84.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.266%.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
QLD- Added 2/20/2024
UWM – Added 1/22/2024.
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows).
INTC – Added 12/6/2023.
 
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
Salesforce reported and beat on earnings and revenue, but their guidance for 2024 was light so CRM dipped about 2% in afterhours trading on Wednesday.
 
BA – Added 12/6/2023. I plan to hold Boeing for the time being, although my patience is running out! Technically, there is a lot of support around the 200 level.  It closed at 201.5 on 2/22/2024. If Boeing drops below 200 it will be time to bail out.
 
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position in my retirement account betting on Small Caps.
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
The S&P 500 is 12.2% above its 200-day moving average (200-dMA).  That remains stretched and may limit the rally until the 200-dMA can “catch-up.” So, it would not be surprising to see some sideways movement in the Index. There are not too many concerning issues in the markets now, at least when we review the indicators, so a major decline is unlikely.  The Summary of 50-Indicators improved somewhat today.  Always a good sign. New-highs are trending higher and that’s a good sign too; the trend remains up.
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Now there are 6 bear-signs and 15-Bull. Tuesday there were 8 bear-signs and 14-Bull signs.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained HOLD: PRICE was positive; VOLUME, SENTIMENT & VIX are neutral.
 
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)
 
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
 
BOTTOM LINE
I remain cautiously bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:

The DOW added Amazon to the Dow 30. I’ll add it, but it’s a time consuming effort and may take awhile. Walmart split 3 for 1 today and that took some manipulation in the momentum ranking, too.
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 

...My current invested position is about 70% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting continuation of bullish market action.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October.

Consumer Confidence ... Durable Orders ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“The reality is Donald Trump, everything he touches does die. Everything he has tried to put in place does not work,” he said. “The RNC is now going to be controlled by his daughter-in-law, basically... It’s how you grind yourself down as a national party into the dust of nothing.” - Michael Steele, former Chair, Republican National Committee. 
 
"[Trump’s visit to the border] has nothing to offer Eagle Pass, and Eagle Pass has nothing to gain from it. Not welcome here and you know it. Not a leader but a loser. Not a president, but a contender. Not a rebel but a threat. Not a friend but an enemy. Not a patriot but a traitor. Eagle Pass deserves better. Maverick County deserves better. Texas deserves better. America deserves better. We deserve better." - Eagle Pass Border Coalition, Eagle Pass Texas, in recent Facebook post.
 
“The Border Patrol Union on Monday ridiculed President Biden’s planned visit to the border this week as a cynical ploy to save his presidency at the expense of Americans’ safety.” Story at... 
Border Patrol Union slams Biden border visit as ‘too little, too late’ just to 'try to save himself' (msn.com)
 
“Seems like someone is starting 2024 hangry. You and your lawyers have had the J6 cmttee materials plus the grand jury info & much more for months. Lying about the evidence in all caps won’t change the facts. A public trial will show it all.” –Liz Cheney, former Republican Representative from Wyoming, denying Trump’s claim she destroyed evidence.
 
DURABLE ORDERS (YahooFinance)
"Orders for long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods fell by the most in nearly four years in January, while business investment on equipment appeared to have eased, signs that the economy lost momentum at the start of the year... Orders for durable goods, items ranging from toasters to aircraft meant to last three years or more, plunged 6.1% last month..." Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-durable-goods-orders-fall-135342448.html
 
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (Conference Board)
“The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® fell in February to 106.7 (1985=100), down from a revised 110.9 in January. February’s decline in the Index occurred after three consecutive months of gains... “The decline in consumer confidence in February interrupted a three-month rise, reflecting persistent uncertainty about the US economy,” said Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board.” Press release at...
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.2% to 5078.
-VIX dipped about 2% to 13.43.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.303%.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
QLD- Added 2/20/2024
UWM – Added 1/22/2024.
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows).
INTC – Added 12/6/2023.
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
 
BA – Added 12/6/2023. I plan to hold Boeing for the time being, although my patience is running out! Technically, there is a lot of support around the 200 level.  It closed at 201.5 on 2/22/2024. If Boeing drops below 200 it will be time to bail out.
 
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position in my retirement account betting on Small Caps.
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
More than half of issues on the NYSE have been up on all time frames that I track (150, 100, 50, and 10-days). This shows that the rally continues to be broad and makes me optimistic that the rally will continue.
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Now there are 8 bear-signs and 13-Bull. Monday there were 8 bear-signs and 14-Bull signs.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained HOLD: PRICE was positive; VOLUME, SENTIMENT & VIX are neutral.
 
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)
 
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
 
BOTTOM LINE
The Summary of Indicators was slightly less bullish today. I remain cautiously bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:

The DOW added Amazon to the Dow 30. I’ll add it, but it’s a time consuming effort and may take awhile. Walmart split 3 for 1 today and that took some manipulation in the momentum ranking, too.
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 

...My current invested position is about 70% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting continuation of bullish market action.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October.

New Home Sales ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
NEW HOME SALES (ABC News)
“New home sales ticked up in January, despite a twin burden imposed by elevated mortgage rates and expensive housing prices, according to U.S. Census data released on Monday. Sales of new single-family homes rose 1.8% in January compared to the previous year...” Story at...
https://abcnews.go.com/Business/new-home-sales-ticked-january-despite-elevated-mortgage/story?id=107542860
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 dropped about 0.4%  to 5070.
-VIX was unchanged at 13.75.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.281%.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
QLD- Added 2/20/2024
UWM – Added 1/22/2024.
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows).
INTC – Added 12/6/2023.
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
 
BA – Added 12/6/2023. I plan to hold Boeing for the time being, although my patience is running out! Technically, there is a lot of support around the 200 level.  It closed at 201.5 on 2/22/2024. If Boeing drops below 200 it will be time to bail out.
 
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position in my retirement account betting on Small Caps.
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
There’s not much new today. New Bear-indicators were: Short-term new-high/new-low data; McClellan Oscillator; and the slope of the 40-dMA of New-highs. The Utility spread was a new Bull indicator.
 
The Indicator Summary is bullish, but not overly so.
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Now there are 8 bear-signs and 14-Bull. Friday there were 7 bear-signs and 16-Bull signs.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained HOLD: PRICE was positive; VOLUME, SENTIMENT & VIX are neutral.
 
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)
 
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
 
BOTTOM LINE
The Summary of Indicators was somewhat less bullish today. I remain cautiously bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:

The DOW added Amazon to the Dow 30. I’ll add it, but it’s a time consuming effort and may take awhile. Walmart split 3 for 1 today and that took some manipulation in the momentum ranking, too.
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 

...My current invested position is about 70% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting continuation of bullish market action.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October.
 

Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 

“Supreme Court hears 14th amendment challenge to Trump.” — Michael Ramirez political commentary at...
https://michaelramirez.substack.com/p/michael-ramirez-a-question-of-ballot?r=ntzh3&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&open=false
 
“Scientists have used artificial intelligence to overcome a huge challenge for producing near-limitless clean energy with nuclear fusion. A team from Princeton University in the US figured out a way to use an AI model to predict and prevent instabilities with plasma during fusion reactions.” – “The Independent” via msn.
AI solves nuclear fusion puzzle for near-limitless clean energy (msn.com)
 
“A Russian military blogger has died in an apparent suicide after facing a barrage of criticism for revealing heavy losses in Ukraine, and his supporters have blamed Kremlin propagandists for his death.” – AP News at...
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-blogger-3fccc68864df7d7f4e0197ca98582b66
My cmt: Another Russian death by “suicide.”
 
"I've been a senator since ‘72. I've served with real racists. I've served with Strom Thurmond. I've served with all these guys that have set terrible records on race. But guess what? These guys [Republicans] are worse. These guys do not believe in basic democratic principles." – President Joe, “The Uniter,” Biden in hyperbolic mode once again.
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 2pts.  to 5089.
-VIX dropped about 5% to 13.75.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 4.248%.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
QLD- Added 2/20/2024
UWM – Added 1/22/2024.
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows).
INTC – Added 12/6/2023.
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
 
BA – Added 12/6/2023. I plan to hold Boeing for the time being, although my patience is running out! Technically, there is a lot of support around the 200 level.  It closed at 201.5 on 2/22/2024. If Boeing drops below 200 it will be time to bail out.
 
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position in my retirement account betting on Small Caps.
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Listing the detailed “Friday Summary of Indicators” was a time-consuming chore, and now that the Summary is automated, I am going to give the totals and list some of the interesting indicators rather than give a detailed list.
 
On the BULL side:
-MACD of S&P 500 price made a bullish crossover 23 Feb.
-65% of the 15-ETFs that I track have been up over the last 10-days. (45-55% is neutral.)
 
NEUTRAL indicators include:
-9.6% of all issues traded on the NYSE made new, 52-week highs when the S&P 500 made a new all-time-high, 15 February 2024. (There is no bullish signal for this indicator, but this is a good, higher than average number that reinforces the notion that breadth is improving.)
-Bollinger Bands.
-Sentiment. (Sentiment is neutral, but it is climbing fast and may switch to Bearish if the trend continues.)
 
The most significant BEAR signs are:
-The S&P 500 is 13% above its 200-dMA. Markets are getting stretched. (The Bear indicator is 12% above the 200-day.)
- All the ETFs I track were above their respective 200-dMA, yesterday, 2/23. This indicator will be extended for a week.
 
Now there are 7 bear-signs and 16-Bull. Last week, there were 6 bear-sign and 13 bull-signs.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained HOLD: PRICE was positive; VOLUME, SENTIMENT & VIX are neutral.
 
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)
 
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
 
BOTTOM LINE
The Summary of Indicators was somewhat more bullish this week. I remain cautiously bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 

...My current invested position is about 70% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting continuation of bullish market action.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October.
 

FED Minutes ... Jobless Claims ... Home Sales ... Crude Inventories ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“If you have mail-in voting, you automatically have fraud...When you go into a voting place, like you go into one in a properly run state, they look at you, you give voter ID, you give all sorts of identification. I mean, it would be very hard to cheat.” – Donald Trump, during Laura Ingraham interview.
My cmt: Sorry, Donald. In Georgia, where you claimed 200,000 votes were stolen, mail-in voter signatures were matched to registration signatures along with address and witness checks.  You lost the election fair and square. You claimed thousands of dead people voted – election officials found about a half-dozen cases of double voting, where relatives voted for an individual that had passed away.
 
“Mike Lindell, the CEO of bedding company MyPillow and an ally of former President Donald Trump, has to pay $5 million to a man who debunked Lindell’s false claims of fraud in the 2020 presidential election, following a failed attempt to get out of doing so. In 2021, Lindell hosted a contest called the “Prove Mike Wrong Challenge,” promising $5 million to anyone who could disprove Lindell’s claims that Chinese interference played a role in the 2020 election. Robert Zeidman, a computer forensics expert and Trump supporter, submitted a 15-page report proving Lindell’s assertions were false.”
MyPillow Guy Must Pay $5 Million To Man Who Proved Him Wrong (msn.com)
My cmt: So far, even though there is a court order, Lindell has not paid off on the contest.
 
FED MINUTES (CNBC)
“In discussing the policy outlook, participants judged that the policy rate was likely at its peak for this tightening cycle,” the minutes stated. But, “Participants generally noted that they did not expect it would be appropriate to reduce the target range for the federal funds rate until they had gained greater confidence that inflation was moving sustainably toward 2 percent.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/21/fed-minutes-january-2024.html
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (US News)
“The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, suggesting that job growth likely remained solid in February...Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 12,000 to a seasonally adjusted 201,000 for the week ended Feb 17...” Story at...
https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2024-02-22/us-weekly-jobless-claims-unexpectedly-fall
 
EXISTING HOME SALES (CNBC)
“Sales of previously owned homes rose 3.1% in January to 4 million units on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis, according to the National Association of Realtors. Sales were down 1.7% year over year.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/22/existing-home-sales-rose-3percent-in-january-2024.html
 
CRUDE INVENTORIES (EIA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 3.5 million barrels from the previous week. At 443.0 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 2% below the five year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 2.1% to 5087.
-VIX dropped about 5% to 14.54.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.331%.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
QLD- Added 2/20/2024
UWM – Added 1/22/2024.
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows).
INTC – Added 12/6/2023.
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
 
BA – Added 12/6/2023. I plan to hold Boeing for the time being, although my patience is running out!
Technically, there is a lot of support around the 200 level.  It closed at 201.5 on 2/22/2024. If Boeing drops below 200 it will be time to bail out.
 
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position in my retirement account betting on Small Caps.
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Today was a big day and the indicators are bullish. However, there were some signs of a top: Bollinger bands are overbought; The S&P 500 is 13.1% of its 200-dMA; All the ETFs I track are above their respective 200-dMA. (The last time that happened was back in early August of 2023.  That preceded a 10% correction. Previously, the indicator warned in June and July of 2021. That was followed by a small 5% pullback 3 months later, so this indicator doesn’t always predict a big downturn and the timing can be questionable.
 
We also note that Thursday was a statistically significant up-day. That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, up-day is followed by a down-day about 60% of the time.  Tops almost always occur on Statistically-significant, up-days, but not all statistically-significant, up-days occur at tops. Today could be a short-term top, but there are only 2 top indicators that are bearish and that is not a strong top signal. If the markets continue to make big moves up next week, we may see some weakness in the markets.
 
The best move to make now is to watch indicators carefully and be aware that a reversal is possible, but not guaranteed.
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
The “Friday Summary” ensemble was slightly more bullish: there are 8 bear-signs and 16-Bull.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained HOLD: PRICE was positive; VOLUME, SENTIMENT & VIX are neutral.
 
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)
 
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
 
BOTTOM LINE
I remain cautiously bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 

...My current invested position is about 70% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting continuation of bullish market action.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October.