Wednesday, April 1, 2026

Retail Sales … ISM Manufacturing … ADP Employment … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
JAMIE DIMON COMMENTS ON CAPITALISM
“In an interview with "CBS Evening News" anchor Tony Dokoupil, the JPMorgan Chase CEO rejects critiques of the country's economic system as no longer benefiting a mass of Americans as "dead wrong." Dimon acknowledged that capitalism has its drawbacks, but said it has helped lift "billions" out of poverty. His remarks come as millions of Americans struggle with the high cost of living and with some polls showing a decline in positive views of capitalism. A recent CBS News poll also found that most Americans think it is harder to buy a home, raise a family and get a good job than it was for past generations.” Story at…
 
THOMAS SOWELL COMMENTS ON CAPITALISM
“It was Thomas Edison who brought us electricity, not the Sierra Club. It was the Wright brothers who got us off the ground, not the Federal Aviation Administration. It was Henry Ford who ended the isolation of millions of Americans by making the automobile affordable, not Ralph Nader. Those who have helped the poor the most have not been those who have gone around loudly expressing 'compassion' for the poor, but those who found ways to make industry more productive and distribution more efficient, so that the poor of today can afford things that the affluent of yesterday could only dream about.”
― Thomas Sowell
 
TRUMP AGREES TO REPARATIONS FOR IRAN (ZNBC)
“President Trump announced that he has agreed to reparations for Iran that include several new Trump golf courses. Trump announced that preliminary demolition for the projects has been accomplished. This is the start of his peace thru sports initiative that will include the Trump brand. Trump pledged that all expenses to fund the projects will be borne by Iran.” Story at…
 
TRUMP SAYS U.S. WILL LEAVE IRAN SOON (CNBC)
“President Donald Trump on Tuesday said he expected that United States military forces will leave Iran in “two or three weeks…We leave because there’s no reason for us to do this,” Trump told reporters at the White House.” Story at
 
ADP EMPOYMENT (ADP)
“Hiring and pay gains both held steady in March. The smallest employers drove job growth for a second month, while hiring in trade, transportation, and utilities continued to decline. ‘Overall hiring is steady, but job growth continues to favor certain industries, including health care. In March, this solid performance was accompanied by a boost in pay gains for job-changers.’” - Dr. Nela Richardson, Chief Economist, ADP. Report at…
 
RETAIL SALES (Reuters)
“U.S. retail sales increased by the most in seven months in February as motor vehicle purchases rebounded and temperatures warmed up, but surging gasoline prices because of war in the Middle East were expected to crimp spending in the months ahead. The Commerce Department's delayed report on Wednesday suggested that the economy ​was on solid footing before the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran.” Story at…
 
ISM MANUFACTURING (ISM)
“Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in March for the third consecutive month… “In March, U.S. manufacturing activity remained in expansion territory, growing at a slightly faster pace than the month before…” Report at…
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.7% to 6575.
-VIX declined about 3% to 24.54.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.323% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“Despite all the bearish noise, Goldman Sachs isn’t backing down on Nvidia (NVDA) stock yet. After another stellar GTC showing, the bank reiterated its $250 price target and maintained a buy rating, underscoring confidence in the AI giant’s tremendous upside from current levels.” Story at…  
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 14 gave Bear-signs and 11 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
S&P 500 drop from the Top: 5.8% (Max drop=9.1%)
S&P 500 % above 200-dMA: -1%
Trading Days since top: 55. (Avg top to bottom for corrections less than 10% = 32 days, but the 10% correction in Sept of 2023 lasted 64-days top to bottom.)
 
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -15 to -3 (3 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations reversed higher.
 
I was tempted to buy some stocks today. The NYSE Composite Index broke well above its upper trend line in this recent down trend; the S&P is very close to, or above, its upper trend line too.  
 
There were a couple of issues that bother me: (1) The S&P 500 is still 1% below the 200-dMA. That is a resistance level. (2) As of Wednesday, the S&P 500 has retraced 36% of its loss. The next Fibonacci resistance level is only slightly higher at 38%, if one believes in that sort of thing. (3) The war news was more bad than good:
  -Trump says we leave the middle east in 2 to 3 weeks; but he also says Iran wants a ceasefire.
  -Al Jazeera says that Iran’s foreign minister has denied making a request for ceasefire.
  -Iran's military announced a new wave of missile and drone attacks targeting U.S. and Israeli sites in the Gulf. From
 
I am still fully invested at 55% stocks in the portfolio, but I will add to that position when conditions look good since I have a 20% cash position.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’d like to see the S&P 500 climb above its 200-dMA, but I may still begin to add to stocks soon if indicators continue to improve.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals improved to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 
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