“The Chicago Fed's national activity index worsened in April, falling to negative 0.53 from negative 0.23 in March. The three-month moving average meanwhile was at negative 0.04 from negative 0.05 in March.” Story from… http://www.marketwatch.com/story/chicago-fed-national-activity-index-falls-in-april-2013-05-20
The numbers are lower than the previous data, but they
are far from recessionary levels.
ZeroHedge suggested that falling Catterpillar US sales
may indicate trouble for the US economy.
Story at… http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-20/caterpillar-north-america-sales-collapse-suggests-us-economy-back-2010-levels
CATERPILLAR SALES REMAIN SLUGGISH (Fox news)
“Caterpillar’s construction and mining equipment
continued to face sales headwinds in North America, posting a 9% drop globally
in April despite stronger demand from Latin America…In North America, the
largest regional segment for Caterpillar, April sales fell 18% from a year ago
in the wake of 11% and 12% declines in March and February, respectively.” Full story at…http://www.foxbusiness.com/industries/2013/05/20/sales-caterpillar-equipment-remain-sluggish/
CAT was up on the day so investors weren’t concerned about CAT, specifically. More to the point, when I look at the relative performance of Cyclical stocks vs. the S&P 500, concerns are present, but the Cyclical stocks are still headed up, so investors are not currently worried about recession.
JOHN HUSSMAN, PhD.
After warning that market's were due for a pullback for more than a year
(as well as repeating the ECRI recession-call even longer), John Hussman has
thrown in the towel (so to speak) without issuing a market commentary this
week. Last week’s commentary was titled,
“Closing Arguments: Nothing Further, Your Honor” and I guess he meant it.
He does continue to update “Fund Notes” at the end of the
commentary. If there was any question
about his opinion on the markets, here is the first sentence of today’s fund
note: “As of last week, the market environment remained characterized by an
overvalued, overbought, overbullish, rising-yield environment that is (sic)
places present conditions in the singularly most negative such syndrome we
define.” Fund Notes are included at the end of the market commentary at…
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc130513.htm
That about says it all.
MARKET RECAP
Monday, the S&P 500 closed down a point to 1666 (rounded). That’s 1,000 points higher than the 666 intraday low in March of 2009.
VIX was up 4.6% to 13.02.Monday, the S&P 500 closed down a point to 1666 (rounded). That’s 1,000 points higher than the 666 intraday low in March of 2009.
NTSM
Monday, the overall NTSM analysis was HOLD at the close.
I have been considering putting some money back into stocks, but that
hasn’t been possible with the NTSM analysis giving sell signals as it did for the
3-previous days. Sometimes you have to
consider joining the crowd. I am not
there yet, again, because of the recent sell signals.
MY INVESTED POSITION
I remain about 20% invested in stocks as of 5 March (S&P 500 -1540). My reasoning may be found at…(although that probably looks pretty lame by now.)
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/2013/03/why-i-got-mostly-out-of-stock-market.html
The NTSM system sold at 1575 on 16 April. (This is just another reminder that I should follow the NTSM analysis and not act emotionally – I am under-performing my own system by about 2%!)
I have no problems leaving 20% or 30% invested. If the market is cut in half (worst case) I’d
only lose 10%-15% of my investments. It
also hedges the bet if I am wrong since I will have some invested if the market
goes up. No system is perfect.
