“The Chicago Fed's national activity index worsened in April, falling to negative 0.53 from negative 0.23 in March. The three-month moving average meanwhile was at negative 0.04 from negative 0.05 in March.” Story from… http://www.marketwatch.com/story/chicago-fed-national-activity-index-falls-in-april-2013-05-20
CAT was up on the day so investors weren’t concerned about CAT, specifically. More to the point, when I look at the relative performance of Cyclical stocks vs. the S&P 500, concerns are present, but the Cyclical stocks are still headed up, so investors are not currently worried about recession.
Monday, the S&P 500 closed down a point to 1666 (rounded). That’s 1,000 points higher than the 666 intraday low in March of 2009.
MY INVESTED POSITION
I remain about 20% invested in stocks as of 5 March (S&P 500 -1540). My reasoning may be found at…(although that probably looks pretty lame by now.)
The NTSM system sold at 1575 on 16 April. (This is just another reminder that I should follow the NTSM analysis and not act emotionally – I am under-performing my own system by about 2%!)