“U.S. industrial production rose slightly in February, but a decline in manufacturing output offered the latest evidence the economy has softened…’Manufacturing has started 2015 on a softer note than we had expected and if we do not see a pickup in the next few months we will have to consider notching down our 3% real GDP growth forecast for 2015,” John Ryding of RDQ Economics said in a note to clients.’” Story at…
http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-industrial-production-up-slightly-in-february-1426511701
END OF BULL CLOSER THAN YOU THINK - JIM STACK (MarketWatch)
“’We’re most likely in the later third of the bull market and closer to the end than we think,’ Stack said in an exclusive interview with MarketWatch. And maybe even the final year. ‘We could see this bull market peak this year, whether it’s already done so or could within the next six to nine months.’” Story at…
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bull-market-is-closer-to-the-end-than-investors-think-2015-03-16
TEN-YEARS FROM NOW – S&P 500 WILL BE BELOW CURRENT LEVELS (Hussman Funds)
“…we are observing extremes in nearly every pendulum of the global financial markets…the median stock is now more overvalued than in 2000…the 2000 peak remains the most overvalued point for the S&P 500 in U.S. history, though only about 20% above present valuation levels on those measures…Aside from that 2000 peak, the S&P 500 itself is now more overvalued than at the 1929 peak, not to mention the lesser 1972, 1987 and 2007 extremes. We estimate that the S&P 500 Index is likely to be below its present level a decade from now, though adding dividends is likely to raise the nominal total return to about 1.6% annually on a 10-year horizon.” – John Hussman, PhD. Weekley Market Commentary at…
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc150316.htm
Perhaps, but I remain fully invested.
MARKET REPORT
- Monday, the S&P 500 was UP about 1.4% to 2081.
-VIX was down about 4% to 15.39.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury Note dropped to 2.07%.
(The Bond Ghouls didn’t believe today’s rally?)
UNCHANGED VOLUME
Of all the stats that are out there, the one that most epitomizes investor confusion is unchanged volume. When the closing value is high, it indicates that investors can’t seem to figure out which way the market is going. Friday’s unchanged volume was high. For the record, high unchanged volume is bearish, because confusion is typical at the top – not the bottom. This stat is not always reliable though so it isn’t a great cause for alarm.
PULLBACK OVER?
Probably, there have been signals each way. Still, it isn’t a done deal; the big up day today (Monday) would be followed by a down day tomorrow about 62% of the time. Monday, Steve Grasso, trader and CNBC contributor suggested that the average investor might want to stay on the sidelines for a while until things get clearer.
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks advancing (NYSE) rose to 46% at the close Monday. (A number below 50% is usually BAD news for the markets.) In another reversal, New-highs again outpaced New-lows, Monday. The spread (new-highs minus new-lows) was minus+59. (It was -45 Friday.). The 10-day moving average of change in the spread was minus-8. In other words, over the last 10-days, on average, the spread has DECLINED by 8-each day.
Internals remained neutral on the market and up volume (often an early mover in my basket of internals) is the only positive internal (on a 10-day basis) that I track.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13%
for the S&P 500 (in on Positive out on Negative – no shorting). Of course, few trend-following systems will do
well in an extreme low-volatility, nearly straight-up year like 2014.
NTSM
Monday the NTSM analysis is BUY. The VIX and PRICE indicators are positive. SENTIMENT and VOLUME indicators are neutral, although sentiment remains extremely high.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION
I remain fully invested at 50% invested in smaller cap-stocks in the long-term portfolio with some international stocks. 50% is conservative, but appropriate for a retired guy. The Dow Jones US Completion Index (all stocks except the S&P 500) continues to outperform the S&P 500. Since February it is 3% ahead of the S&P 500.
