“The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, drifting back to near 42-year lows as labor market conditions continue to tighten. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits declined 12,000 to a seasonally adjusted 260,000 for the week ended Nov. 21…” Story at….
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/25/us-weekly-jobless-claims-nov-14-2015.html
DURABLE GOODS (ABC News)
“Orders for long-lasting manufactured goods posted a solid gain in October after two months of weakness, while a key category that tracks business investment plans advanced by the largest amount in three months. Orders for durable goods rose 3 percent in October following declines in both September and August…” Story at…
http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/orders-us-durable-goods-rise-strong-percent-october-35410517
MICHIGAN SENTIMENT (Econotimes)
“The University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment fell to 91.3 in the final November print, down from 93.1 in the mid-month preliminary estimate.” Story at…
http://www.econotimes.com/University-of-Michigan-consumer-sentiment-revised-down-in-late-November-120932
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday, the S&P 500 was unchanged at 2089 at the close.
-VIX fell about 5% to 15.19. (The Options Boys must be on vacation.)
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped to 2.23.
The S&P 500 was flat, but 61% of stocks were up today. Oddly, most of the volume was down. I’ve been looking at an indicator based on $-flow; essentially, “Where are the $ going – mostly up, or mostly down? The answer is mostly down. (Down-volume tracks the number of shares traded at a price lower than the prior price. Similarly, declining-issues are stocks purchased/sold at a lower price than the prior price. Up-volume and advancing-issues are just the opposite.) Over the last 150-days, only 48.9% of the dollars traded in the NYSE have been on purchases of stocks going up. The results are similar for shorter time frames too. Not surprisingly, the S&P 500 is down 0.6% over the same 150-day time period. Down $-flow is just another bearish signal.
Volume was lighter today and should be minimal on Friday with a 1PM close at the NYSE.
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks advancing (NYSE) rose to 52.5% Wednesday vs. 50.7% Tuesday. (A number above 50% is usually GOOD news for the markets. On a longer term, the 150-day moving average of advancing stocks rose to 49.2%. A value below 50% indicates a down trend.
The McClellan Oscillator (a Breadth measure) remained positive Wednesday.
In a positive reversal, New-highs outpaced New-lows Wednesday. The spread (new-highs minus new-lows) was +46. (It was -20 Tuesday.) The 10-day moving average of the change in spread was +10 Wednesday. In other words, over the last 10-days, on average; the spread has increased by 10 each day. The internals remained positive on the markets.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2014, using these
internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on
Positive, out on Negative – no shorting).
Of course, few trend-following systems will do well in an extreme
low-volatility, nearly straight-up year like 2014.
NTSM
Wednesday, the NTSM long term indicator was BUY. The Price & VIX indicators are positive. Sentiment and Volume indicators are neutral. I remain skeptical that this is a good time to get in. My prior blog posts explain the reasoning.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:
TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATIONAll cash: G-Fund (Cash, risk-free yielding 2.1% over the last 12-months): 100%
I made a rather impulsive decision. For my reasons (or lack of reason) see “My Invested Stock Position” in my prior blog at...
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/2015/11/factset-earnings-cass-freight-index.html
There have been enough major top indicators recently to warrant more caution than usual.
One needn’t be “all-out” to be well protected if there is a bear market. For example: With 30% invested in the stock market, one would only lose 15% of the portfolio if the market were to be cut in half; one would have plenty to invest at the bottom and 30% in stocks hedges the bet if the markets go up.
I am considering increasing stock-investments, but I’d like to see more price movement.
