“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
“Before the U.S. went to war, Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told President Trump that an American attack could prompt Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz.
Caine said in several briefings that U.S. officials had long believed Iran would deploy mines, drones and missiles to close the world’s most vital shipping lane, according to people with knowledge of the discussions.
Trump acknowledged the risk, these people said, but moved forward with the most consequential foreign-policy decision of his two presidencies. He told his team that Tehran would likely capitulate before closing the strait—and even if Iran tried, the U.S. military could handle it…The U.S. operation to wipe out Iran’s military capability “is quite literally intended to deprive them of their ability to close the Strait,” Leavitt [White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt] said.” Story at…
https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/iran-oil-hormuz-blockade-trump-f96bdd53
My cmt: So far, it seems to me that we have not done a good job of keeping the Strait of Hormuz open and now Iran is claiming sovereignty over the Strait, something they had not done before the conflict. The above article from March highlights how Trump misjudged the enemy, and now, it appears that he may be willing to give up too much to settle.
““The Manufacturing PMI® registered 53.3 percent in June, 0.7 percentage point lower than in May. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 20th month in a row. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 47.5 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.)” Report at…
https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-pmi-reports/pmi/june/
“Private sector employment increased by 98,000 jobs in June and pay was up 4.4 percent year-over-year according to the June ADP National Employment Report® produced by ADP Research in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab ("Stanford Lab").” Report at…
https://mediacenter.adp.com/2026-07-01-ADP-National-Employment-Report-Private-Sector-Employment-Increased-by-98,000-Jobs-in-June-Annual-Pay-was-Up-4-4
“Overall construction spending in the U.S. edged up just 0.1% in May, with high mortgage rates and inflation dampening new home construction despite an increase in renovations.” Story at…
https://sjvsun.com/u-s/construction-spending-rises-slightly-as-homebuilding-lags/
-Wednesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.2% to 7483.
-VIX declined about 0.8% to 16.59.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.481% (compared to about this time prior market day).
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“According to the 54 analysts' twelve-month price targets for NVIDIA, the average price target is $278.73. The highest price target for NVDA is $360.00, while the lowest price target for NVDA is $205.00.”- MarketBeat at…
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/NVDA/forecast/
XLK – Added 6/5/2026
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 8 gave Bear-signs and 14 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
Basic internals were good today, and that added to the improvement in the indicators. The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +1 to +6 (6 more Bull indicator than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued lower, a Bearish sign that is also important.
The 5-10-20 Timer System signaled “buy” today. It is a chart crossover system.
From Trend Spider…
“ The strategy monitors the interaction of three specific EMA lengths:
· 5 EMA: The fastest, most reactive line to recent price changes.
· 10 EMA: The intermediate line tracking near-term momentum.
· 20 EMA: The slowest line in this setup, providing a baseline for the broader short-term trend.
A buy signal occurs when the faster averages cross above the slower averages, indicating an upward shift in momentum.
· The 5 EMA crosses above the 10 EMA.
· Both lines subsequently cross above the 20 EMA.”
Some think that this system is good enough to use exclusively. I don’t know. I have found that the bigger the number of indicators, the better are the results.
I am mildly bullish.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
Google has replaced Verizon in the Dow 30. It will take a while for me to update the momentum chart.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
