“The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose last week to a more than one-year high, but economists blamed striking telecommunications workers for the surge and said the data did not signal a deterioration in the overall labor market.” Story at…
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
- Thursday, the S&P 500 was unchanged at 2064 at the close.
-VIX dipped about 2% to 14.41.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 1.76%.
Market Internals remain in negative territory suggesting further downside ahead. Even though the S&P 500 finished flat Thursday, there were negative signs. Only 37% of volume was advancing volume and less than half of issues advanced on the day. Advancing volume continues to decline and that is generally a bearish sign.
MONEY TREND & SHORT TERM TRADING
The short-term Money Trend indicator is mixed, Thursday, and it’s a neutral signal. I continue to hold short positions mostly in SH and some in QID, but those will have to go if the market reverses upward and exceeds my pain-target of 2110 on the S&P 500.
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks advancing (NYSE) rose to 49% Thursday. It was 47.6% Wednesday. A number below 50% is usually BAD news for the markets.
On a longer term, the 150-day moving average of advancing stocks dipped to 51.7%. A value above 50% generally indicates an up-trend. The McClellan Oscillator (a Breadth measure) declined and remained negative – a bearish indicator in the short-term.
New-highs again outpaced New-lows. The spread (new-highs minus new-lows) was +95 Thursday. (It was +113 Wednesday). The 10-day moving average of the change in spread fell to minus-2. In other words, over the last 10-days, on average; the spread has declined by 2 each day. Market Internals remained negative on the markets.
Thursday, the Volume, VIX, Sentiment & Price indicators were all neutral. The long-term NTSM indicator remains HOLD.
On 30 Dec I reduced my invested position in my retirement account to 30% invested in stocks thru an S&P 500 Index fund (“C”-fund in the TSP) and on 15 Jan I reduced stock allocation to zero in long-term accounts. If the S&P 500 index closes above 2110, I plan to add to my stock allocation.
The S&P 500 peaked in Mid-May and has not been able to break higher in the past 11-months. That looks like a top to me. See “Why the Bull Market May be Dead” in my 14 December blog at…