“The number of Americans applying for and receiving
benefits after losing their jobs keeps going lower. Initial jobless claims fell
by 8,000 to 237,000 in the seven days stretching from June 4 to June 10…” Story
at…
PHILADELPHIA FED (Bond Buyer)
“The region's manufacturing sector expanded in June, but at a
slower pace than in May, as the general business conditions index decreased to
31.3 from 38.8 in May…” Story at…
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (FOX Business)
“A drop in U.S. manufacturing output held back overall
industrial production in May, an indication of uneven growth for the factory
sector and only modest expansion for the overall economy. Industrial production
-- a measure of output at factories, mines and utilities -- was unchanged from
the prior month…” Story at…
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
Short report today…
I keep reading in the WSJ that technology needs to
correct. OK, perhaps it does, but keep
in mind that the major indices tend to track each other. If tech falls, so will
the S&P 500 and Dow.
I remain unimpressed on a short-term basis and it looks
like we may see some retracement in the indices.
Longer term, I remain cautiously bullish; I will worry
more in late-summer and into early fall.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF. While momentum isn’t stock performance per
se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months
from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed
the S&P 500 by nearly 20%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see
NTSM Page at…
Technology (XLK) slipped to No. 3, as XLU (Utilities)
took over 1st. Given the
recent drop in Tech, I’d sell XLK. I am going to sit on the sidelines and wait
for a day or two. Traders may want to buy XLU, but recognize that if there is
no correction XLU may not be the leader for long.
I would avoid XLE; its 120-day moving average is
falling.
SHORT-TERM TRADING PORTFOLIO - 2017 (Small-% of the
total portfolio)
Neutral with no positions recommended. - 5/24/2017
thru present.
I am still not bullish enough to take a long position in
the trading portfolio.
-“In a bull market, you can only be long or
neutral.” – D. Gartman
-“The best policy is to avoid shorting unless a major
bear market is underway and downside momentum has been thoroughly established.
Even then, your timing must sometimes be perfect. In a bull market the trend is
truly your friend, and trading against the grain is usually a fool's errand.” –
Clif Droke.
-“Commandment #1: “Thou Shall Not Trade Against the Trend.” - James P. Arthur Huprich
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals switched
to Neutral on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2014, using these internals
alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive,
out on Negative – no shorting).
LONG TERM INDICATOR
Thursday, Price, is positive; Volume, Sentiment & VIX
indicators were neutral. (With VIX
recently below 10, VIX may be prone to incorrect signals. Usually, a rising VIX
is a bad market sign; now it may just signal normalization of VIX, i.e., VIX
and the Index may both rise. As an indicator, VIX is out of the picture for a
while.)
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:
TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATION
I increased
stock allocation to 50% stocks in the S&P 500 Index fund (C-Fund) Friday,
24 March 2017 in my long-term accounts, based on short-term indicators.
Remainder is 50% G-Fund (Government securities). This is a conservative retiree
allocation, but I consider it fully invested for my situation.
