Tuesday, December 5, 2017

ISM Services … Stock Market Analysis … ETF Trading … Dow 30 Ranking

“The current market advance both looks, and feels, like the last leg of a market “melt up” as we previously witnessed at the end of 1999. How long it can last is anyone’s guess. However, importantly, it should be remembered that all good things do come to an end. Sometimes, those endings can be very disastrous to long-term investing objectives.This is why focusing on “risk controls” in the short-term, and avoiding subsequent major draw-downs, the long-term returns tend to take care of themselves.” - Lance Roberts. Full commentary at
 
ISM SERVICES (Advisor Perspectives)
“The headline Composite Index is at 57.4 percent, down 2.7 from 60.1 last month...
‘The NMI® registered 57.4 percent, which is 2.7 percentage points lower than the October reading of 60.1 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a slower rate.’”
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS         
-Tuesday the S&P 500 was down about 0.4% to 2630.
-VIX was down about 3% to 11.33.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped to 2.358%.
 
My sum of 17 Indicators slipped from +9 to -1 on the day and was down on a longer-term basis too. A “-” number means there are more bearish indicators than bullish; further any drop is worrying since the trend is often more important than the raw number.
-Bolllinger Bands are still elevated, but now below 80 so it’s not a sell in my system. RSI was very close to a sell last week. Bollinger bands and RSI when used together aren’t telling us much today – but given some negative signs now, we might infer they were close enough last week to suggest a pullback of some kind.
-Comparison of Trend in Breadth on the NYSE vs. trend in the S&P 500 is showing a worrisome trend: The S&P 500 is too far ahead of Breadth. The Index vs. Breadth has not been this unbalanced since Nov 2016, but there was only a small pullback of a couple % back then.
-New-Lows are picking up and the new-highs don’t look good either.
-Advancing volume is headed down on a smoothed 10-day basis.
-The Overbought/Oversold Index is neutral, but it too was oversold last week. That Index can be very early though, so we’ll wait for further indications.
-The Smart Money (based on late day action) is in negative territory, but remains flat so its neutral.
-Every ETF I track was down today except for Technology and it was up only a smidgeon.
 
All in all, I am cautiously bullish in the short-term, but we are seeing more signs that a drop may be coming soon. I thought we’d get to mid or later December before we saw some sort of pullback. Now, I’m not sure – indicators suggest it may be sooner.
 
TODAY’S RANKING OF  15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.  While momentum isn’t stock performance per se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
Financials (XLF) was #1. The markets look a bit strained so perhaps I’ll get a better buying opportunity.  XLF (Financials) look good.
(I hold XLK, DVY and SPY.)
 
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock. 
 
Walmart (WMT) and Intel (INTC) were essentially tied at #1. (I hold Intel.)
Avoid GE and Merck. Their 120-day moving averages are falling.
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system. For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
Intel is down 2% since I bought it 31 Oct 2017.  This is a risk of a momentum strategy. The hottest stock can get identified after an earnings surprise and the stock has already moved.  The momentum then slows and profit taking follows.  I am going to hold Intel because I think buying will pick up again if they are able to keep up earnings growth. In addition, its PE is a low 15.4 vs the average DOW PE of 25 as of the end of October. The Yield on the S&P 500 (SPY) is 1.9% while the Dividend for Intel is 2.3%. I think it is worth holding.
 
SHORT-TERM TRADING PORTFOLIO - 2017 (Small-% of the total portfolio)
My shorting rule is as follows:
-“In a bull market, you can only be long or neutral.” – D. Gartman
-“The best policy is to avoid shorting unless a major bear market is underway and downside momentum has been thoroughly established. Even then, your timing must sometimes be perfect. In a bull market the trend is truly your friend, and trading against the grain is usually a fool's errand.” – Clif Droke.
-“Commandment #1: “Thou Shall Not Trade Against the Trend.” - James P. Arthur Huprich
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals declined to Neutral on the market. (Market Internals are based on a package of internals and all must be positive to create a positive indication. 
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.  In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on Negative – no shorting). 
 
LONG TERM INDICATOR                                                        
Tuesday, Price indicator was positive; Sentiment, Volume & VIX indicators were neutral. With VIX recently below 10 for a couple of days in May, June, July, August, September, October and now November, VIX may be prone to incorrect signals. Usually, a rising VIX is a bad market sign; now it may move up, but that might just signal normalization of VIX, i.e., VIX and the Index may both rise. As an indicator, VIX is out of the picture for a while.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:
TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATION
I increased stock allocation to 50% stocks in the S&P 500 Index fund (C-Fund) 24 March 2017 in my long-term accounts, based on short-term indicators. The remainder is 50% G-Fund (Government securities). This is a conservative retiree allocation, but I consider it fully invested for my situation.