Wednesday, February 21, 2018

FOMC Minutes … Existing Home Sales … Stock Market Analysis … ETF Trading … Dow 30 Ranking

FOMC MINUTES (Bloomberg)
“U.S. central bankers sent a strong message Wednesday that an expansion with “substantial underlying economic momentum” could sustain additional increases in interest rates this year. Federal Reserve officials “anticipated that the rate of economic growth in 2018 would exceed their estimates of its sustainable longer-run pace and that labor market conditions would strengthen further,” the minutes of their Jan. 30-31 meeting released in Washington on Wednesday showed.” Story at…
 
HOME SALES (USA Today)
“U.S. sales of existing homes fell in January from a year earlier by the most in more than three years. Would-be buyers were stymied by rising prices and a shortage of homes for sale. The National Association of Realtors said Wednesday that sales dropped 3.2% from December to January…” Story at…
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS         
-Wednesday the S&P 500 was down about 0.6% to 2701. (The market started falling as soon as the FOMC minutes were released.)
-VIX was DOWN about 3% to 20.02.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 2.949%. (This doesn’t look good.)
 
What an ugly close! The S&P 500 dropped more than 1% after the FOMC minutes were released at 2PM. They continued down into the close. Closing Tick (sum of the last trades of the day) was a bearish -488.
 
Yields have been rising since September. This isn’t good for the markets. Sounds like an understatement, right? It is obvious, but I point it out as further evidence that this correction may not end next week as many bulls think.
 
Sentiment (measured as %-Bulls (Bulls/{bulls+bears}) based on the amounts invested in Rydex/Guggenheim mutual funds) was 68% last Thursday. Tuesday it was 86%-bulls. As it climbs higher, a return to recent lows becomes more likely.
 
The S&P 500 remains down 6% from its recent high; this is day 18 in the correction. If the bottom was 8 Feb (the recent low), then this “correction” lasted 10-days top to bottom.  A 2-week correction is awfully short and difficult to believe.
 
My sum of 17 Indicators dropped from +6 to +3 today – a bearish indication. The smoothed version has turned up and is bullish. I’d be surprised if Indicators weren’t turning more positive after the 5% bull-move we’ve had recently. At this point the chart and 50-dMA is more important than the indicators.
 
We still can’t guess whether there will be a retest of the low or not. A typical correction includes a waterfall collapse (it seems to be over) followed by a bounce (we got the bounce), a lot of choppiness and then a retest of the low over a period of about 50-trading days. We’ll see. It is all up to the chart. Friday the S&P 500 was sitting slightly (0.3%) above 50-dMA; now it’s 1% below it.  The 50-dMA is a critical point for the Index. If we can break significantly above the 50-dMA and stay there for a few days it would suggest this correction is more likely to end quickly.
 
The market was down 1.7% when I suggested that I was reducing stock exposure to 40% based on numerous negative indicators. It remains to be seen whether I’ll make money on that call. I am positioned for a retest of the correction low. If it turns out to be a successful retest, I’ll be back in stronger than before.
 
TODAY’S RANKING OF  15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
In corrections this chart may be less valuable – all stocks are falling.
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.  While momentum isn’t stock performance per se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked in the top 3 Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted correctly.) XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
In corrections this chart may be less valuable – all stocks are falling.
 
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system. For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals declined to Neutral on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.  In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on Negative – no shorting). 
 
LONG TERM INDICATOR                                                        
Wednesday, VIX was negative; Volume, Sentiment and Price were neutral.
 
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:
TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATION
I remain 40% invested in stocks and 60% in cash as of 31 Jan (A comparable TSP allocation would be 40% in the S&P 500 Index fund (C-Fund) with the remainder 60% G-Fund (Government securities). For non-Government employees holding short-term bonds would be OK rather than 60% cash.