“Initial jobless claims, a tracker of sorts for layoffs
in the U.S., fell slightly in mid-August and hovered near a 49-year low.” Story
at…
FACTORY ORDERS (Reuters)
“New orders for U.S.-made goods fell slightly more than
expected in July, weighed down by weak demand for aircraft, but signs of a
pickup in business spending suggested that the manufacturing sector remained on
solid ground.” Story at…
ISM SERVICES (Washington Post)
“U.S. services companies grew at a faster pace in August
as business activity and new orders rebounded. The Institute for Supply
Management says that its services index rose to 58.5 last month…” Story at…
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 slipped about 0.4% to 2878.
-VIX rose about 5% to 14.65.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 2.875% as
of this post.
Dip buyers continue to buy. I guess they are trading the
fact that the market has been down 4-days in a row. In the last six, it has
only been up one day and that was a very small move up. Some people trade those numbers; it works
until it doesn’t. On a longer-term basis, the market has been up 5-days in the
last 10. For me, that is not a tradable number…but I tend to avoid these very short-term
trades. It’s too much like work.
Currently, my daily sum of 17 Indicators improved from -9
to -8 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish) while the 10-day
smoothed version that negates the daily fluctuations dipped from +14 to -2
indicating that conditions are worse than 2-weeks ago. Indicators continue to slip and have a negative
outlook at this point.
We’ll worry if the Index falls below the 50-day value…or
if the indicators really turn south.
I remain fully invested.
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF
15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF. While momentum isn’t stock performance per
se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the
4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF)
outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked
in the top 3 Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted
correctly.) XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see
NTSM Page at…
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals
remained NEGATIVE on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They
are usually right, but they are often late.
They are most useful when they diverge from the Index. In 2014, using these internals alone would
have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on
Negative – no shorting).
I am now 50% invested in stocks. For me, fully invested
is a balanced 50% stock portfolio. As a retiree, this is a position with which
I am comfortable unless I am in full defense mode or feeling especially
optimistic.
INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR
Intermediate/Long-Term
Indicator: Thursday, the Price indicator was positive; Sentiment was negative;
Volume & VIX were neutral. Overall this is a NEUTRAL indication.
