"Democratic Party operatives and MSNBC
"analysts" spent the day [Friday] spreading a photo that was dubious
from the start - staged to make it appear neo-Nazis were supporting Glenn
Youngkin - and now it turns out that, yet again, they spread disinformation...Lincoln
Project claims credit for the "white supremacist" stunt at Youngkin's
campaign event today [Friday]...Dem operatives & MSNBC analysts used it to
accuse Youngkin of racism. Utterly sick." - Glenn
Greenwald
Turns out that one of them
is the financial director for the Virginia Young Democrats... and since being
outed as such, has made his Twitter private.
BEST ARGUMENT THAT 2020 ELECTION WASN’T RIGGED
“If Democrats rigged the 2020 election employing the
nefarious tactics alleged by President Trump, why didn’t Democrats apply the
same dishonest devices to win more of the 435 House and 35 Senate races...Had
Democrats possessed the power to rig elections in 2020, they surely would have
used it to secure sufficient seats to avoid the congressional deadlock that plagues
the American people today.” - Frank Richter, WSJ Opinion Page, 30 October.
My cmt: That’s the best common-sense argument I have
heard!
ISM MANUFACTURING (ISM)
“The October Manufacturing PMI® registered 60.8
percent, a decrease of 0.3 percentage point from the September reading of 61.1
percent. This figure indicates expansion in the overall economy for the 17th
month in a row after a contraction in April 2020.” Report at...
CONSTRUCTION SPENDING (kfgo/Reuters)
“U.S. construction spending unexpectedly fell in
September amid declines in outlays on both private and public projects. The
Commerce Department said on Monday that construction spending dropped 0.5%
after edging up 0.1% in August.” Story
at...
https://kfgo.com/2021/11/01/construction-spending-unexpectedly-falls-in-september/
CORONAVIRUS (NTSM)
Here’s the latest from the COVID19 Johns Hopkins website as
of 7:30 PM Monday. U.S. total case numbers are on the left axis; daily numbers
are on the right side of the graph in Red with the 10-dMA of daily numbers in
Green. I added the smoothed 10-dMA of new cases (in purple) to the chart.
Immunity rate is over 70% - that’s Covid Positive +
vaccinated persons per the WSJ reporting.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.2% to 4614.
-VIX rose about 1% to 16.41.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 1.571%.
Friday’s run-down of some important indicators remained
on the bull side (6-bear and 12-bull), but was somewhat less bullish than the
prior week.
There are 3 topping warnings now in effect: RSI remains overbought;
the spread between late day trading and the S&P 500 is overbought and
Breadth vs. the S&P 500 is suggesting that the S&P 500 is too far ahead
of the % of issues advancing on the NYSE. That’s still not enough indicators to make me sell. (Of course, the S&P 500 can have a top without a
warning.)
The daily sum of 20 Indicators improved from -5 to +4 (a
positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum
that smooths the daily fluctuations declined from +14 to +8. (These numbers
sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late.) Most
of these indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce around a lot.
The Long Term NTSM indicator
ensemble remained BUY. Volume and Price are bullish; Sentiment and VIX
indicators are neutral. This is an indication that the market conditions are
good. Sometimes they can be too good.
I remain bullish.
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs
(Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
Momentum in Consumer
Discretionary Stocks (XLY-ETF) have pulled ahead of XLE (Energy Sector). As we see below, XLE is out gaining XLY over
the last 2 months so I will continue to hold XLE reather than switching.
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30
STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Here’s the revised DOW 30 and
its momentum analysis. The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
Market Internals improved to BUY.
Market Internals are a decent
trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone
for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index.
My stock-allocation in the
portfolio is now about 65% invested in stocks; this is above my “normal” fully
invested stock-allocation of 50% stocks. Indicators are very bullish, so I am
holding a short-term position in additional Index Funds to boost returns.
You may wish to have a higher
or lower % invested in stocks depending on your risk tolerance. 50% is a
conservative position that I consider fully invested for most retirees.
As a general rule, some
suggest that the % of portfolio invested in the stock market should be one’s
age subtracted from 100. So, a
30-year-old person would have 70% of the portfolio in stocks, stock mutual
funds and/or stock ETFs. That’s ok, but
for older investors, I usually don’t recommend keeping less than 50% invested
in stocks (as a fully invested position) since most people need some growth in
the portfolio to keep up with inflation.
