“What the welfare system and other kinds of governmental programs are doing is paying people to fail. Insofar as they fail, they receive the money; insofar as they succeed, even to a moderate extent, the money is taken away.” ― senior fellow at the Hoover Institution.
“President Donald Trump announced Tuesday that U.S. Space Command's headquarters will move to Alabama from Colorado, reversing a Biden administration decision. In remarks at the White House, Trump said he was making the shift in part because of Colorado's use of mail-in voting. "The problem I have with Colorado, one of the big problems, they do mail-in voting, they went to all mail-in voting, so they have automatically crooked elections," Trump said in the Oval Office.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/trump-moving-space-command-hq-alabama-colorado-mail-voting-system-rcna228647
2020 VOTER FRAUD (Heritage Foundation Database)
Heritage Foundation reports that there have been 17 convictions for voter fraud in 2020. [Could be higher now; I haven’t checked this in a while.] Convictions included the following offenses: False Registrations; Buying Votes; Ballot Petition Fraud; Illegal "Assistance" At The Polls; Fraudulent Use Of Absentee Ballots; and Ineligible Voting. A few examples follow:
-“Randy Allen Jumper voted twice in the 2016 general election. He voted by absentee ballot in Arizona and again by absentee ballot in Nevada. He pleaded guilty to attempted illegal voting, a class 6 felony. He was sentenced to two years probation, fined $5,000, and is barred from voting in Arizona.”
- “April Atilano, of Monterey County, pleaded guilty to 6 counts of felony voter fraud for falsifying voter registration forms. Atilano falsified a number of voter registration cards by changing party affiliation and forging signatures. The forms were submitted to the Madera County Registrar of Voters in July 2019. Atilano was sentenced to one year in prison and three years probation.”
-“Delores "Dee" Handy, of Crowley was found guilty of failing to mark a ballot as instructed when assisting an elderly voter, a misdemeanor. She was sentenced to 11 months in jail which was suspended, two years of probation, and fined $800.”
Donald trump won Georgia by 211,000 votes in 2016; Trump lost Georgia by 12,000 in 2020. So, by Trump’s claims, the Democrats would have needed to falsify at least 233,000 votes to flip the election. Since paper ballots matched the voting machines, the machines weren’t to blame. [Fox paid $750-million for lying about voter-machine fraud.] Absentee ballots? Absentee ballots were matched to voter registrations and signatures were checked. The Dems would have needed to forge close to a quarter-million signatures of existing voters and get them past the verifiers certifying the election - Absurd. Oh, by the way, if any of the 233,000 real people whose identities were stolen voted, they would be identified for duplicate voting. Could the Dems register a quarter million fake names and use them to vote? Not likely. As noted above, Ms. Alitano got caught submitting 6 false registrations.
For more, see the Heritage Foundation website and search the database at...
https://www.heritage.org/voterfraud
“Billionaire investor Ray Dalio has delivered a stark warning about the state of American discourse around the nation’s economic challenges, saying fear of retaliation, particularly from the Trump administration, is keeping investors and business leaders from voicing critical concerns about the country’s fiscal trajectory... “Most people are silent because they are afraid of retaliation if they criticize,” Dalio said, highlighting what he sees as a dangerous suppression of economic debate at a critical juncture for the United States...Dalio’s alarm centers on what he describes as an impending ‘debt-induced heart attack in the relatively near future,’ which he said could strike the U.S. economy within the next three years. The numbers support his concern: America’s national debt has reached a staggering $37 trillion as of August, representing approximately 124% of the nation’s gross domestic product—levels not seen since World War II. More troubling, the Congressional Budget Office projects the debt-to-GDP ratio will climb from 100% in 2025 to 156% by 2055 if current policies remain unchanged.” Story at...
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/ray-dalio-says-most-people-are-silent-because-they-re-afraid-to-talk-about-what-s-really-happenin
My cmt: Ray Dalio is a founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge fund with approximately $130 billion under management. These are not anti-Trump comments; rather, they are economic realities. Is he right about a crisis starting within three years? I don’t know. I will rely on my stock-market indicators to warn me if there is a major crisis coming. My indicators have been very reliable warning of major tops. They even called the top in the Covid pandemic - the Fosback High/Low Index called the top of the pandemic to the day.
“Applications for US unemployment benefits rose to the highest since June, with initial claims increasing by 8,000 to 237,000 in the week ended Aug. 30.” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/video/us-economy-jobless-claims-rise-124620779.html
“Economic activity in the services sector grew in August for the third consecutive month, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest ISM® Services PMI® Report. The Services PMI® indicated expansion at 52 percent, above the 50-percent breakeven point for the 13th time in the last 14 months... “The Prices Index registered 69.2 percent in August, a 0.7-percentage point decrease from July’s reading of 69.9 percent.” Report at...
https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-pmi-reports/services/august/
“Private payrolls increased by just 54,000 in August, according to data from processing firm ADP published Thursday morning. That’s below the consensus forecast of 75,000 from economists polled by Dow Jones, and marks a significant slowdown from the revised gain of 106,000 seen in the prior month... Thursday’s ADP report adds to an already concerning picture of the labor market.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/04/adp-jpb-data-august-2025.html
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 0.8% to 6502.
-VIX declined about 6% to 15.29.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.161% (compared to about this time prior market day).
SPY – Added 8/26/2025
XLK – Added 8/26/2025
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 4 gave Bear-signs and 17 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +6 to +13 (13 more Bull
indicators than Bear indicators) and is now giving a Bullish indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread reversed upward – another Bullish sign.
Today, there was a Bollinger Squeeze signal that occurs when Bollinger Bands are close together. “A Bollinger Band... is defined by a series of lines that are plotted two standard deviations—both positively and negatively—away from the simple moving average (SMA) of the price of an asset... A Squeeze is triggered when volatility reaches a six-month low and is identified when Bollinger Bands reach a six-month minimum distance apart...” The Bollinger Squeeze predicts a big move (breakout) in the S&P 500, but it doesn’t tell us the direction of such a move. To determine breakout direction, Bollinger suggests looking at other indicators. He suggests using the relative strength index (RSI). Bollinger bands are discussed at Investopedia...
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/accumulationdistribution.asp
RSI is near the middle of its range so it will not tell us what direction a breakout may be. In addition, Bollinger mentions a few other indicators I don’t use. From my indicators we see that the daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved to a Bullish +13 (13 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators) and the 10-dMA of the spread is now rising – a bullish sign. This suggests the breakout should be upward.
BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
