ISM Manufacturing … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
MINNESOTA ISN’T THE ONLY MAGNET FOR WELFARE MALFEASANCE (WSJ – Excerpt)
“At the Armoni Inn & Suites, rooms boast modern appliances and glossy wood furniture, while a chandelier hovers in the foyer near a swanky sitting area. Suitable for the business traveler, it seems an unlikely choice for the emergency housing of migrants.
The city of New York, however, paid more than $800,000 for 4,902 room-nights to put up asylum-seekers in this hotel, some 30 miles north of downtown Manhattan. Yet no migrants ever stayed at the Armoni, which became a symbol of rampant waste and abuse in the city’s hapless contracting with human-services companies and nonprofits…
… In 2024, the city’s Department of Investigation released a sweeping report on human-services nonprofits funded by the city. All 51 nonprofits it examined had at least one finding of misconduct. More than 80% had at least three; 30% had five or more. Examples included shelter insiders funneling millions to personal businesses; executive salaries of more than $700,000 a year; and a CEO who’d put several family members on the payroll. One nonprofit, SEBCO Development Inc., hosted a “competitive bid” for a contract worth millions that its own subsidiary won.”
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/minnesota-isnt-the-only-magnet-for-welfare-malfeasance-76ba455e?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqfG46r4KOoXAQ7F-0IAMmmMTEI_T1-NX5Ce33jdfItjz4acRxFILho7rGlaJfw%3D&gaa_ts=6959bc8e&gaa_sig=IkuNzao9_D7ZtO0KSFx5Vh0n7KHapLAv5y75Uj24GOXjeXzSgqRJkfJrCWRtFf87i340RjXURVOP7TZDh905TQ%3D%3D
My cmt: When people tell me they favor Medicare-for-All, I just shake my head. Government can’t even manage reimbursement for hotel rooms. Do you really believe they can run healthcare more efficiently than private industry?
 
ISM MANUFACTURING (ISM)
“Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in December for the 10th consecutive month, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, say the nation's supply executives in the latest ISM^® Manufacturing PMI^® Report…Spence [Susan Spence, MBA, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management^® (ISM^®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee] continues, "In December, U.S. manufacturing activity contracted at a faster rate, with pullbacks in the Production and Inventories indexes leading to the 0.3-percentage point decrease of the Manufacturing PMI^®.” Press release at… 
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/manufacturing-pmi-at-47-9-december-2025-ism-manufacturing-pmi-report-302649307.html
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.6% to 6902.
-VIX rose about 3% to 14.90. (Options players may be buying insurance.)
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.155% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – Added 11/26/2025 & 12/1/2025
SPY – Added 12/1/2025. Stick with quality.
NVDA – Added a small position 12/1/2025.
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 5 gave Bear-signs and 16 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +7 to +11 (11 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication.  I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher, a BULLISH sign.
 
Indicators are looking good. If the S&P 500 can make new all-time highs we’ll get a good take on the overall health of the market.  For now, it looks good.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish and fully invested.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 

As of Monday, 1 December, my invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.