Monday, March 2, 2026

ISM Manufacturing … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
TEHRAN—In a surprise attack that has rattled the White House, on Saturday morning the Iranian Air Force dropped unredacted copies of the Epstein files on the U.S. Standing in front of a banner reading, “OMISSION UNACCOMPLISHED,” Iran’s spokesman said that its aircraft dropped the files over most major media outlets in the U.S. but skipped CBS and CNN. “Like Bari Weiss is going to run with this story?” he scoffed. “Good one.”
The spokesman added that Iran had not bothered to drop the files over the U.S. Capitol, stating, “We have seen no evidence that Congress still exists.” – Andy Borowitz.
 
U.S. SAW CHANCE TO KILL TOP OFFICIALS (WSJ)
“Israeli and U.S. military intelligence had long watched and waited for a rare opportunity: senior political and military leaders in Iran holding a meeting—where they could all be killed at once. The day finally came Saturday… 
…The moment was so unique that U.S. and Israeli warplanes struck in full daylight…
…Israel also said it had killed a number of other top political and military officials including Ali Shamkhani, a top security adviser to Khamenei; Mohammad Pakpour, commander of the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps; and Defense Minister Amir Nasirzadeh.” Story at…
 
ISM MANUFACTURING PMI (ISM)
“Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in February for the second straight month but only the third time in 40 months, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report.” Report at…
 
-Monday the S&P 500 was little changed at 6882.
-VIX rose about 8% to 21.44.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.048% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 13 gave Bear-signs and 12 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +1 to -2 (2 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations was flat – a NEUTRAL indication.
 
Even the air strikes on Iran made very little impact on the markets. In the past, these actions have produced short-term declines. That was certainly true during the first Gulf War. Markets dropped at first and later recovered. Today, markets were down at the open. Apparently, investors saw the morning weakness and decided to buy the dip. As the daily chart shows, the S&P 500 recovered all of its opening losses.
 
A lot of questions remain about oil prices and transportation routes. Investors may reconsider buying. I wouldn’t be surprised to see more weakness. Indicators have been going nowhere as has the S&P 500 and Futures are down as I write this.
 
Unless indicators show a lot more negativity, I will not be selling stocks. I cut leveraged funds at a small profit before all this started and at the same time, I trimmed technology issues.
 
Levels of support remain. On the S&P 500, they are: 6800, the 100-dMA and the 200-dMA: The S&P 500 is 0.7% above the 100-dMA and 4.8% above the 200-dMA.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I remain a nervous neutral on the markets. I am HOLD on the markets.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 
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