Thursday, April 2, 2026

Jobless Claims … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
  
TRUMP LIABLE FOR JANUARY 6?
“With its controversial 6-3 ruling in Trump v. the United States, the U.S. Supreme Court's GOP-appointed hard-right supermajority ruled that U.S presidents enjoy absolute immunity from prosecution for "official" acts in office but not for "unofficial" acts… But on Tuesday, March 31, U.S. District Judge Amit Mehta — applying that standard — ruled that Trump's speech at a January 6, 2021 rally in Washington, D.C. was political in nature and therefore, is not protected from civil lawsuits related to the attack on the U.S. Capitol Building.” Story at…
My cmt: I suspect that the ruling indicates that Trump could be subject to criminal prosecution once he leaves office. Of course the Supreme Court's ruling protects ALL Presidents for Official acts. How could it be otherwise?  Should we prosecute Biden for Negligent Homicide for his handling of the Afghanistan withdrawal? 
 
LATEST ON THE WAR (CNN)
“• Opening the strait: More than 40 countries attended a virtual meeting to discuss “every possible” method of fully opening the Strait of Hormuz…
 • Uncertainty surrounds US plans: Markets were rattled and oil prices soared Thursday, a day after Trump’s speech signaling the US will intensify strikes on Iran. The address offered few details on a strategy for exiting the war or securing global shipping….
 • Latest strikes: Iranian media said at least eight people were killed and 95 injured in a US-Israeli strike on a major bridge outside Tehran. Trump shared video of the bridge and vowed “more to follow.” Meanwhile, Iran’s military said it had struck an Amazon cloud computing center in Bahrain.” Story at…
 
MARKETS BOTTOM EARLY IN WARS – TOM LEE (MarketWatch)
“Stock markets bottom at the beginning and not end of wars is the reassuring message that Fundstrat’s Tom Lee sent to investors in a note coinciding with the first quarter’s final trading session. While the war’s duration is unknown, Lee looks at seven major conflicts dating back to 1900 and finds equity markets have a habit of troughing early on because investors “price adverse risks early and quickly.” He notes that historically, markets bottom within the first 10% of a war’s duration.” Story at…
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (Yahoo Finance)
“New applications for U.S. unemployment benefits fell last week amid low layoffs, suggesting labor market conditions remained calm in March, though economists have warned that a ‌prolonged war in the Middle East posed a downside risk. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits ‌dropped 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 202,000 for the week ended March 28…” Story at…
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 0.1% to 6583.
-VIX declined about 3% to 23.87.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.309% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“Despite all the bearish noise, Goldman Sachs isn’t backing down on Nvidia (NVDA) stock yet. After another stellar GTC showing, the bank reiterated its $250 price target and maintained a buy rating, underscoring confidence in the AI giant’s tremendous upside from current levels.” Story at…  
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 11 gave Bear-signs and 12 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
S&P 500 drop from the Top: 5.7% (Max drop=9.1%)
S&P 500 % above 200-dMA: -0.9%
Trading Days since top: 56. (Avg top to bottom for corrections less than 10% = 32 days, but the 10% correction in Sept of 2023 lasted 64-days top to bottom.)
 
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -3 to +1 (1 more Bull indicator than Bear indicator), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher.

 

I call bottoms based on falling volume and improving market internals as the S&P 500 declines. We got a weak buy-signal on 26 March using that methodology. The market fell another 3% to a low on Monday, 30 March, but has rebounded since then. There was no additional signal at the low and the markets seemingly are being whipsawed by news rather than technicals. Wednesday, Trump said the US planned to intensify attacks on Iran. Markets were down sharply at the open today, but rebounded as shown in the daily chart. It's a good sign when markets climb on bad news. I may dip my toe in the markets by buying some stock soon.
 
I’d still feel better if the Index would climb above its 200-day moving average. As of Thursday’s close, the S&P 500 remains 0.9% below its 200-dMA.
 
I wish we would see a solid buy-signal, but Mr. Market rarely listens to me.
 
I am still fully invested at 55% stocks in the portfolio, although I have a 20% cash position since I took some profits near the top. 50% in stocks is a good conservative position for a retiree.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’d like to see the S&P 500 climb above its 200-dMA, but I may still begin to add to stocks soon if indicators continue to improve.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 
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