ISM Manufacturing ... construction Spending ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
PRESIDENT BIDEN HAS DIED?
The following is breaking news from a reliable reporter at MSNBC: “Persistent rumors that President Joe Biden has died continue to rebound around the internet, and frankly, they may be true.  Apparently, the playbook for this likelihood is a 35-year-old movie that starred Andrew McCarthy, Jonathan Silverman and Catherine Mary Stewart. Biden is clearly playing the part of Bernie, as he has for several years – and doing a damn good job at it, I might add.” – from the Rachel Maddog Show. Posted 1 April 2024.
 
FROM THE NY POST
“It’s ethnic discrimination to force Big Apple pizzerias and matzah-makers to cut the smoky pollutants from their wood- and coal-fired ovens, according to a new bill sponsored by a state lawmaker. ‘I’m trying to stop discrimination against ethnic restaurants. These misguided laws go against businesses that cook ethnic cuisine.’” - Assemblyman Sam Pirozzolo (R-Staten Island).
 
CALIFORNIA MNIMUM WAGE (msn)
“California boasts one of the highest minimum wages in the entire country, as of April 1, 2024 that minimum wage will be raised to $20 an hour.” Story at...
CA Fast Food Workers Laid Off In Mass As New Minimum Wage Requirement Takes Effect (msn.com)
My cmt: Since a year of work is about 2000 hours, the CA minimum wage is about $40,000 per year. The nationwide average starting salary for teachers is $43,000.
 
ISM MANUFACTURING PMI (ISM)
“The Manufacturing PMI® registered 50.3 percent in March, up 2.5 percentage points from the 47.8 percent recorded in February. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 47th month after one month of contraction in April 2020.” Report at...
https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/pmi/march/
 
CONSTRUCTION SPENDING (Floor Daily)
“Construction spending during February 2024 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,091.5 billion, 0.3% below the revised January estimate of $2,096.9 billion, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.  The February figure is 10.7% above the February 2023 estimate...” Story at...
https://www.floordaily.net/flooring-news/construction-spending-up-107-yoy-in-february
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 declined about 0.2% to 5244.
-VIX rose about 5% to 13.65.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.307%.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
QLD- Added 2/20/2024
UWM – Added 1/22/2024.
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows).
 
INTC – Added 12/6/2023.
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position in my retirement account betting on Smaller Caps.
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Indicators moved more sharply to the bull side - .Today there are 6 bear-signs and 17-Bull.
 
The above indication is ok. I don’t expect to see a pullback until both Bollinger Bands and RSI are overbought. Even then, any pullback that does occur is likely to be relatively small, <10%.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator improved to BUY: PRICE & VOLUME are positive; SENTIMENT & VIX are neutral.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)
 
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
I skipped my rules on Intel and it has been a disappointment. Serves me right!  Now, Salesforce (CRM) has fallen out of the top 3. It is an AI play so it is not clear that selling it is the best move.  I’ll wait a bit longer.

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 

...My current invested position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting continuation of bullish market action.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October.