Leading Economic Index ... Jobless Claims ... Philly Fed Index ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“Two lawsuits from eighteen combined states have been filed to stop the Biden administration from advancing its legislation to allow college debt loan forgiveness. The suits were filed by Republican lawmakers in Red states and named Biden and the Education Department as defendants.” Story at...
Multiple States Sue Joe Biden Over Student Loan Forgiveness Plan (msn.com)
My cmt: The Constitution is clear: Federal spending is controlled by the Legislative Branch, not the Executive Branch of Government. I’ve posted on this subject before. For details, see my post here...
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/2024/04/business-optimism-momentum-trading-dow.html
 
LEADING ECONOMIC INDEX (Conference Board)
“The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. decreased by 0.3 percent in March 2024 to 102.4 (2016=100), after increasing by 0.2 percent in February. Over the six-month period between September 2023 and March 2024, the LEI contracted by 2.2 percent—a smaller decrease than the 3.4 percent decline over the previous six months... The Conference Board forecasts GDP growth to cool after the rapid expansion in the second half of 2023. As consumer spending slows, US GDP growth is expected to moderate over Q2 and Q3 of this year.” Press release at...
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (Yahoo Finance)
"The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits was unchanged at low levels last week, pointing to continued labor market strength. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits were unchanged at a seasonally adjusted 212,000 for the week ended April 13...” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-weekly-jobless-claims-unchanged-123829920.html
 
PHILLY FED BUSINESS INDEX (Advisor Perspectives)

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/03/21/philly-fed-manufacturing-index-expanded-march-2024

 
EXISTING HOME SALES (NAR)
“Existing-home sales retreated 4.3% in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.19 million. Sales fell 3.7% from the previous year.” Press release at...
https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/existing-home-sales-descended-4-3-in-march
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 fell about 0.2% to 5011.
-VIX rose about 1% to 18.00.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.637%.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
QLD- Sold 4/8/2024
UWM – Sold 4/8/2024.
INTC – Sold 4/8/2024.
 
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows). I don’t want to pay taxes on this gain, so I am holding this position.
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
Salesforce was down over 7% Monday. News follows: “Salesforce (CRM) is reportedly in advanced talks to acquire data management software company Informatica (INFA), according to a Wall Street Journal report. The potential acquisition would allow Salesforce to boost its data integration and management capabilities by tapping into Informatica's product suite.” – Yahoo Finance.
 
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position in my tax-deferred, retirement account betting on Smaller Caps. (This position captures smaller cap and micro-cap stocks that are not included in the Dow Jones US Total Stock Market Index .)
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, the 50-indicator spread (Bulls minus Bears) remained 18 bear-signs and 7-Bull (the rest are neutral).
 

TODAY’S COMMENT:
Markets were up in the morning, but faded around mid-day and closed with a loss. Mr. Market didn’t agree with my opinion (yesterday) that the pullback might be over. Since we didn’t get the strong up-day, I didn’t add to stock positions. The confirmation of a bottom is bullish market action. We still have bottom indicators: Both Bollinger Bands and RSI are oversold. In addition, one of the CNBC contributors noted that the McClellan Oscillator was oversold today.
 
I noted earlier that there was support in the 5000 area on the S&P 500.  We aren’t far from there now, so it still looks like the pullback is winding down.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained HOLD: PRICE, VIX & SENTIMENT are neutral; VOLUME is bearish.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)
 
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
 
BOTTOM LINE
It still seems like this pullback is winding down.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

 The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals improved to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 
 

...My current invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks, so this is a fully-invested position.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October.