Wednesday, February 23, 2011

Update after the SELL signal yesterday

The futures are up this morning. Even in the worst bear markets my work has shown that after a big down-day, like yesterday, the next-day-close is up about 60% of the time.

I got the sentiment data from yesterday and it shows the %-Bulls went from 47%, 2-days ago, to 57% at the close yesterday.  That means a lot of people are buying the dip.  Sentiment values are not extreme so it is possible we could go up for a few days.   Of my 8 indicators, 4 are negative within the last 2-days, so this is a fairly strong sell signal.

At this point, my guess is that this will be a short correction in the range of about 10%.  There are a lot of people who “want in” (as evidenced by the mutual fund flows over the past month and a half) and this will present a buying opportunity for them.

I also played with the NTSM system and there is no way we’ll get a BUY today even if we have an up-day as big as the down-day we had yesterday, so the SELL call remains in place.  I will follow my plan and cut back stocks to 30%.