Wednesday, February 16, 2011

The Wednesday Update of the Navigate the Stock Market System

We had our first BUY siganl on 2 July 2010 when the S&P was 1023.  Since then, we have only BUY or HOLD signals, so we have been holding LONG for a 30% gain.  There is no change today.

I continue to look for a big up day that will signal the start of at least a small correction and an opportunity to take a short position with the trading account.   

When we short in the trading account, we may or may not get a SELL on the NTMS analysis.  NTSM analysis is for longer-term investments.


SUMMARY OF NTSM INDICATORS:
As of today’s close, our 4-areas of market analysis present the following picture:

SENTIMENT:  Neutral. The %-bulls indicator is now 44%.  This is a middle-of-the-road reading.  (Sentiment is a reverse indicator; a high %-bulls indicator is bearish for the market and vice versa.)

PRICE: Neutral. Price action has meandered around and there isn’t a clear direction indicated.

VOLUME: BUY.  More volume has been going to the upside…enough for this indicator to call a buy.

VIX:  Neutral.  Our VIX indicator has been moving up; but not enough to call a sell

The overall status for the Navigate the Stock Market system is HOLD.   (Our indicators are based on closing data so we generally wait until after the market close to update the system.)

MY INVESTED POSITION: I remain 100% invested in retirement funds and all cash in the trading account.  (This is an absurdly aggressive position (for an old guy) and I don’t recommend it unless you have an extremely high tolerance for risk.