Sunday, March 27, 2011

Top of the Trend Line

Monday will be a big day. As shown below, The S&P 500 is at the top trend line.  If we can break above the line far enough, the downtrend will be over.  If not, we will head down in a hurry.  I have been expecting that we would retest the recent low, but at this point it is pure guess work.  The recent up-move has been surprising because it has been almost straight up.

If we have a statistically significant day (a big move up in price and volume that exceeds our statistical limits) it will indicate the rally is over, temporarily.


The NTMS system was still all neutral as of Friday's close - still a HOLD.

I am still conservatively positioned with only 30% invested in stocks.