The
wild swings in silver suggest that we may be seeing the end of the commodity
trade and we may have seen the top. I
view that as positive for stocks since those folks will want to invest
somewhere. Why not stocks?
Tuesday, May 10, 2011
Navigate the Stock Market still holding Long
The
Navigate the Stock Market analysis is Hold today. The VIX indicator improved. Sentiment is
still high, though not a screaming sell.
Even with the negative sentiment, NTSM could go back to Buy with a
strong up-day.
At
the same time, the S&P 500 is still 10% above its 200-day moving average so;
I wouldn’t be surprised to see another correction (or sideways action for
awhile) if we move up another 5%. As I’ve
said before, that stat is not in the NTSM system because it is not reliable at
calling a top or bottom, but I think we can see the general trend. For 2010 and 2011 corrections have started
when the 200-dma was around 15% and one started at 10%..
The
Navigate the Stock Market system switched back to Buy on 20 April so I remain
100% long in stocks. (See the page How to Use the NTSM System). That is way too aggressive for most people
and I don’t recommend it unless you have a high tolerance for risk.
