The
Investment Company Institute reported today that $726-billion flowed out of US
equity mutual funds for the week ending 27 April (the most recent data
available). Still, the trend looks up to
me. We’ve had 14-billion in inflows in
the 4-months since 1 Jan. The previous
4-months saw 33-billion in out-flows. As
I said last week, this new money is probably what we need to get the market
moving up on higher volume.
SUMMARY
OF NTSM INDICATORS:
As
of today’s close, our 4-areas of market analysis present the following picture:
SENTIMENT: Neutral.
%-bulls indicator was 62% as of today’s close. 66% is our sell point for this indicator. I figure when 2 out of every 3 people are
betting that the market will move up with leveraged mutual funds, it is time to
sell. (We’ve based that indicator on
years of comparison to moves in the S&P.) This is a stat to watch, but it takes more
than one indicator to turn the entire NTSM system to sell. We had 2-weeks of high sentiment values in
early April without an overall NTSM Sell signal.
PRICE:
Neutral. The Price analysis indicator moved
into neutral territory today.
VOLUME:
Buy. Even with todays down day, volume
has been more on the up-side recently so this indicator is still a Buy.
VIX: Neutral.
Our VIX indicator turned Neutral today.
It is still in positive territory, but not strong enough to generate a
Buy.
SUMMARY:
NTMS switched to BUY on 20 April and it switched from BUY to HOLD today. The Hold puts us on alert that we might
reverse to a Sell, but that is far from certain. It is not at all unusual for NTSM to
fluctuate between Buy and Hold during a sustained upward movement of the
S&P 500.
I
remain 100% long in stocks. (See the page How to Use the NTSM System). That is way too aggressive for most people
and I don’t recommend it unless you have a high tolerance for risk.
