“The U.S. economy barely grew in the first quarter as exports tumbled and businesses accumulated stocks at the slowest pace in nearly a year, but activity already appears to be bouncing back. Gross domestic product expanded at a 0.1 percent annual rate, the slowest since the fourth quarter of 2012, the Commerce Department said on Wednesday... "This weakness is not carrying through the second quarter," said Gus Faucher, senior economist at PNC Financial Services in Pittsburgh.” Story at…
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/30/us-usa-economy-idUSBREA3T03420140430?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews
FED: GROWTH HAS PICKED UP; TAPER TO CONTINUE (Bloomberg)
“Growth in
economic activity has picked up recently, after having slowed sharply,” the Federal Open Market Committee said today
in a statement following a meeting in Washington. “Household spending appears to be
rising more quickly.” The committee
pared monthly asset buying to $45 billion, its fourth straight $10 billion cut,
and said further reductions in “measured steps” are likely.” Story at… http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-30/fed-says-economy-has-picked-up-as-it-trims-bond-buying-further.html
One reason why economists aren’t worried about the poor GDP number:
CHICAGO PMI REBOUNDS (Briefing.com)
“Manufacturing activities in the Chicago region rebounded
in April. The Chicago PMI increased to 63.0 from 55.9 in March. That was the
strongest reading since the index reached 66.6 in October.” Full story at...http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Calendars/Economic/Releases/chi.htm
Chicago PMI may predict the ISM manufacturing number due tomorrow, so “Don’t worry; Be Happy”.
MARKET REPORT
Wednesday, the S&P 500 was UP about 0.3% to 1884 (rounded).
VIX was DOWN about 2% to 13.41. The yield on the 10-year Treasury Note fell slightly to 2.65% at the close.
The Bond Ghouls still have concerns about the stock
market.
I’m going to leave this posted until the S&P 500
breaks thru the old highs: The S&P 500 has closed in the vicinity of 1880
about 8 to 10 times since 31 December.
The index has only closed above 1880 3-times and then only about ½-%
higher. It needs to punch higher or the
correction will be back.
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of stocks advancing on the NYSE
increased to 58% at the close. (A number
above 50% for the 10-day average is generally good news for the market.) New-highs
outpaced new-lows Wednesday. The spread
(new-highs minus new-lows was +66. (It
was +83 Tuesday.) The 10-day moving average of change in the spread was +7. In other words, over the last 10-days, on
average, the spread has INCREASED by 7 each day. The smoothed 10-dMA of
up-volume continued up today. The
internals remained positive on the market.
NTSM
The NTSM analytical model for LONG-TERM MONEY remained HOLD Wednesday, but another indicator tripped to negative. Sentiment climbed to 83%-bulls (5-dMA of {bulls/(bulls+bears)} for funds invested in selected Rydex/Guggenheim funds. This is a very high number and on a statistical basis Sentiment is now negative. Price is also negative since the up-moves have been significantly smaller than the down-moves over the last month. VIX & Volume indicators are neutral.
MY INVESTED POSITION
I increased my stock allocation to 50% invested in stocks
on 26 March because of the NTSM indicators turned positive Monday (24 Mar) at
the close. 50% in stocks is fully
invested for me, given my age (semi-retired) and the risk inherent in today’s
stock market. I am watching closely to see if it is time to reduce my long-term
stock holdings.
