“Initial claims for state unemployment benefits declined 26,000 to a seasonally adjusted 319,000 for the week ended May 3, the Labor Department said on Thursday… "Claims, in conjunction with (last) Friday's employment number, show that we continue to see an incremental improvement in the labor market," said Ron Sanchez, director of fixed income strategies at Fiduciary Trust Company International in New York.” Story at…
DRAGHI’S CURVEBALL (CNBC)
Art Cashin said that Draghi surprised the market by saying that the EU will cut interest rates in June if inflation isn’t more stimulative. Bob Pisani noted that today stocks are rising and yields falling (as of 11:30AM) and asked, “Has the inverse relationship ended?” Art said that low yields in the 10-year may not be bad news for the markets because there is global interest in US Treasuries as they scramble for yield especially if the EU plans to lower interest rates. Video at…
NYSE STOCKS ABOVE THEIR 200-dMA
When the percentage of stocks exceeding their 200-day moving average drops below 61%, there’s usually trouble. The index is there now. Tuesday’s close was 60.1. Wednesday it was 60.8. Check here for today’s value:
The NYSE is hovering at a possible down-turn based on this statistic.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index. In 2013, using these internals alone would have made a 16% return vs. 30% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive out on Negative – no shorting). Of course, few trend-following systems will do well in an extreme low-volatility, straight-up year like 2013.
For discussion see: