Thursday, May 22, 2014

Jobless Claims…Existing Home Sales…Leading Economic Indicators…Crash At Any Time

I am busy today so I’ll post news/web-commentary now and post the NTSM analysis later tonight.
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (Briefing.com)
“The initial claims level increased to 326,000 for the week ending May 17…The Briefing.com consensus expected the initial claims level to increase to 305,000…After a brief dip to its lowest level in seven years, the initial claims quickly returned to its more normal 320,000 - 330,000 range.” Summary and charts at…
http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Calendars/Economic/Releases/claims.htm
 
HOME SALES RISE (Bloomberg)
“Sales of previously owned U.S. homes rose in April for the first time this year as the weather warmed, price increases slowed and more properties were put on the market…’The improvement in availability suggests stronger sales activity in the months ahead,’ said Russell Price, senior economist at Ameriprise Financial Inc. in Detroit. Price is the second-best forecaster of existing home sales in the last two years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Still, ‘we need to see more building activity.’”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-22/sales-of-existing-u-s-homes-rise-for-first-time-in-four-months.html
 
INDEX OF LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS UP (CNBC)
“The index rose 0.4 percent last month, according to the Conference Board, after an upwardly revised 1 percent reading in March…said Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at the Conference Board.  "This latest report suggests the economy will continue to expand, and may even pick up steam through the second half of the year." Short story at…
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101697127
 
FLECKENSTEIN: CRASH AT ANY TIME (CNBC)
“Notable Wall Street bear Bill Fleckenstein has a sobering warning for investors: Complacency has set in, and a flash crash in stock prices could come at any time.”
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101690688
 
I have long noticed that when everyone thinks the market will do one thing, it does another.  All of these calls for a crash seem to be postponing a correction.  Bill Fleckenstein noted in his commentary above that Nasdaq and small cap stocks are probably going to lead the broader indexes lower.  That’s not clear, though. The Russell 2000 seems to have bottomed, at least for the time being, but all is not well in the markets.  Among the troubling signs, the falling percentage of stocks above their 200-day moving average is a telling stat that continues to suggest downside ahead.