Wednesday, June 25, 2014

GDP Revised Down…Durable Goods Orders Fall...Don' Worry; Be Happy

REVISED NUMBER: GDP COLLAPSED IN 1ST QUARTER (Bloomberg)
“Gross domestic product fell at a 2.9 percent annualized rate, more than forecast and the worst reading since the same three months in 2009, after a previously reported 1 percent drop, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. It marked the biggest downward revision from the agency’s second GDP estimate since records began in 1976. The revision reflected a slowdown in health care spending.” Story at…
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-06-25/economy-in-u-s-shrank-in-first-quarter-by-most-in-five-years.html
CMT: The outlook is rosy (according to the economists) so the market ignored this old news.  Everyone knew the 1st quarter was bad since it was already reported as 1% down.
 
DURABLE GOODS UNEXPECTEDLY FALL (Reuters)
“Orders for long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods unexpectedly fell in May, suggesting an anticipated rebound in growth this quarter could fall short of expectations, even as a measure of business capital spending plans rose.” Story at…
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/06/25/us-usa-durable-goods-idUSKBN0F01BV20140625?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews


Chart from Advisor Perspectives.  See Doug Short’s website for analysis and commentary at…
http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/charts/indicators/Durable-Goods.html?Durable-Goods-Orders-SPX.gif

 
The chart indicates another divergence and once again points out that the FED may be the only thing holding the stock market together.  As I have noted ad-infinitum, when the FED tightens the party will be over.  The old rule of thumb says “3-steps and a stumble
 
I'll post analysis later.