“The number of new claims for jobless benefits fell last week to the second lowest level of the year, a sign of a strengthening labor market ahead of Friday’s jobs report. Initial claims for unemployment benefits decreased by 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 278,000 in the week ended Nov. 1…” Story at…
http://online.wsj.com/articles/jobless-claims-fall-labor-market-stays-strong-1415280924
PRODUCTIVITY (Briefing.com)
“Nonfarm labor productivity increased 2.0% in the third quarter, down from an upwardly revised 2.9% (from 2.3%) gain in the second quarter…Over the long term, it is productivity gains that provide the increase in output that have led to the consistent gains in living standards...” Story at…
http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Calendars/Economic/Releases/prod.htm
My cmt: Today’s value was ahead of expectations so this is good news.
THIS MARKET IS FOR SUCKERS (MarketWatch)
“I hate to be a party-pooper, but this is not a time to celebrate, but rather to be cautious.” See here for the commentary…
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-stock-market-rally-is-for-suckers-2014-11-05?page=1
My cmt: I don’t know about that. Usually after a correction the markets celebrate for a while. They’re still celebrating.
RSI
Today’s RSI (14-dSMA) was 87 and that remains an overbought value that is quite high. This probably indicates some pullback of the S&P 500 is coming, but it may be just a return to the lower trend line. It is probably several days away, because the index hasn’t gotten to the upper trend yet.
MARKET REPORT
Thursday, the S&P 500 was up 0.4%, to 2031 (rounded).
VIX was down about 3.5% to 13.67.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury Note again rose to 2.39%.
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks advancing (NYSE) fell to 58% at the close Thursday. (A number above 50% is usually good news for the markets.) New-highs outpaced New-lows Thursday. The spread (new-highs minus new-lows) was +107. (It was +163 Wednesday). The 10-day moving average of change in the spread was +3. In other words, over the last 10-days, on average, the spread has increased by 3 each day. Internals remained neutral on the market; new-hi/new-lo data is still falling. If this keeps up there will be a pullback of some kind.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2013, using these
internals alone would have made a 16% return vs. 30% for the S&P 500 (in on
Positive out on Negative – no shorting).
Of course, few trend-following systems will do well in an extreme
low-volatility, straight-up year like 2013.
NTSM
The long-term NTSM system analysis remains BUY Thursday. Price and Volume indicators are positive. Others indicators are neutral. This buy signal is not important now since a BUY signal was issued near the recent low in mid-October.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION
I moved some funds back into the market on 17 October 2014 as a trade and increased my position in stocks from 30% to about 40% overall. I added more 20 Oct, to bring my stock investments up to 50%. I am semi-retired, 50% is Fully-invested for me. I remain 50% invested in stocks.
--INDIVIDUAL STOCKS FROM A VALUE HOUND--
ENSCO (ESV): BUY
The chart looks good and oil prices are close to a bottom so I think Ensco is again a Buy. See related video on this page…
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=esv&ql=1
Ensco price is going to reflect oil prices. If you think they are near a bottom, this is a great buy with high dividends. If oil continues to fall, this stock will remain a dog.
