“Retail sales rebounded in October as tumbling gasoline prices left consumers with more discretionary cash. Retail sales increased 0.3% last month, roughly in line with the 0.2% jump expected by economists surveyed by Action Economics. Excluding volatile auto purchases, sales rose 0.3%.” Story at…
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2014/11/14/october-retail-sales/18996467/
MICHIGAN SENTIMENT (Advisor Perspectives)
“The Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for November came in at 89.4, up from the October Final of 86.9. This is another post-recession high and the highest level since July 2007…” Story at…
http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Michigan-Consumer-Sentiment-Index.php
Even with today’s good news there seems to be plenty to worry about. Enough worry and the market will start paying attention. So for worriers, here are a couple of articles.
WORLD OUTLOOK DARKER (Bloomberg)
“The world economy is in its worst shape in two years, with the euro area and emerging markets deteriorating and the danger of deflation rising, according to a Bloomberg Global Poll of international investors.” Story at…
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-13/world-outlook-darkening-as-89-in-poll-see-europe-deflation-risk.html
UKRAINE AT RISK (Bloomberg)
“The crisis in Ukraine is at risk of spinning out of control, a top U.S. diplomat said, as European leaders remained split over imposing deeper sanctions on Russia for backing a rebellion that’s killed thousands of people.” Story at…
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-13/eu-may-blacklist-more-separatists-amid-split-on-sanctions.html
MUSINGS OF A TRADER – FEAR CLIMBING (Marketwatch)
“I’ve no idea if and when the ‘serious downturn in the future’ will happen, and I’m not going to try to time it perfectly. Just ebb and flow. Scale in with tranches. Raise cash levels slowly when markets are at all-time highs…I might get outright bearish someday again like I was in 2008, but for now, just being a bit more defensive.” – Cody Willard. See commentary at…
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/cody/2014/11/13/stock-market-fear-stress-and-tensions-climbing/
THOUGHTS FROM ANOTHER TRADER
“…this rally from mid oct is now up 12%, exactly the average amount of a rally after at least a 5% correction in the past 25 years. Average length is 29 days and we are at 21 days now. IN 2007, the last rally lasted 37 days and was up 15% after the 10% drop in July-august, just in case this is the same formation.”
MARKET REPORT
Friday, the S&P 500 was up ever so slightly to 2040 (rounded).
VIX was down about 3.5% to 13.31.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury Note slipped to 2.32. The Bond Ghouls are not optimistic.
PULLBACK COMING
-RSI remains Overbought at a high value of 90.
-The S&P 500 Index remains 3.3% above the 50-dMA. That is a value that usually leads to some selling.
-The percentage of stocks above their 200-dMA declined to 53% Thursday (data is a day late) and that is below the mean value of 65% and is especially weak since the S&P 500 is at new highs.
-The Index has spent 5-days in the range of 2038-2040. This is reminiscent of the August 2014 pattern when there were 8-days at the top with only a 4-point range before the quick correction.
-Market Internals are deteriorating, but rather slowly. A pullback still looks likely. As always, timing is unknown, but it is getting closer - perhaps next week.
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks advancing (NYSE) fell to 52% at the close Friday. (A number above 50% is usually good news for the markets.) New-highs outpaced New-lows Friday. The spread (new-highs minus new-lows) was +79. (It was +115 Thursday). The 10-day moving average of change in the spread was minus-21. In other words, over the last 10-days, on average, the spread has declined by 21-each day. Internals remained neutral on the market.
NTSM
The long-term NTSM system analysis remained neutral Friday. Only Price remains positive. Other indicators are neutral.
MY INVESTED STOCK
POSITION
I moved some funds back into the market on 17 October
2014 as a trade and increased my position
in stocks from 30% to about 40% overall.
I added more 20 Oct, to bring my stock investments up to 50%. I am
semi-retired, 50% is Fully-invested for me. I remain 50% invested in stocks.--INDIVIDUAL STOCKS FROM A VALUE HOUND--
ENSCO (ESV): BUY
The chart looks good and oil prices are close to a bottom so I think Ensco is again a Buy. See related video on this page…
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=esv&ql=1
Ensco price is going to reflect oil prices. If you think they are near a bottom, this is a great buy with high dividends. If not; it’s a dog.
