“…a Greek media report has claimed that negotiations might restart between the government and the country's creditors.” Story at…
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102794738
My cmt: Give your money or I’ll shoot myself in the head. Will this work? Other reports suggested that the Greek proposal had been rejected. Greece missed its payment of 1.5Billion to the IMF Tuesday.
STRONGER EURO (CNBC)
"I think the euro's going to get much stronger because they're going to toss the Greeks out," Gartman said. "Now is the time to buy the euro."
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102799177
If it occurs it will hurt European stocks priced in US dollars.
HOME PRICES (WSJ)
“The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, covering the entire nation, rose 4.2% in the 12 months ended in April, weaker than a 4.3% increase in March.” Story at…
http://www.wsj.com/articles/home-price-growth-flattens-in-april-1435669072
CHICAGO PMI (MarketWatch)
“Chicago PMI rose in June but remained under the 50 level, indicating a slight contraction in conditions. That's the fourth month below 50 this year.” Story at…
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/chicago-pmi-climbs-in-june-but-fails-to-cross-50-level-2015-06-30
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (Briefing.com)
“The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index increased to 95.4 in May from a downwardly revised 94.3 (from 95.2) in April. The Briefing.com Consensus expected the index to decrease to 94.0.” Details and charts at…
http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Calendars/Economic/Releases/conf.htm
My cmt: The Present Condition index within consumer confidence was 108. It was 180 back in year 2000 before the dot.com crash and 140 before the financial crisis of 2007/2008.
WE MAY BE STARTING A LARGER SELLOFF - YAMADA (CNBC)
"’I think this might be the beginning of a larger selloff,’ the legendary technical analyst said Monday on CNBC's ‘Trading Nation.’… Looking at the percentage of stocks above their longer-term 200-day moving average, Yamada noted that ‘you can see that the participation in the market has been declining for slightly over two years.’" Story at…
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102797264
MARKET REPORT
-Tuesday, the S&P 500 was up about 0.3% to 2063 at the close.
-VIX fell about 3% to 18.23.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury Note was unchanged at 2.34%.
The 50-day value of stocks advancing remained 48%. Simply, that means that less than half of the stocks on the NYSE have been going up over the last 50-days. That is not a good sign. It hasn’t done that since last October’s 7% mini-correction.
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks advancing (NYSE) remained 46% at the close Tuesday. (A number below 50% is usually BAD news for the markets.
New-lows outpaced New-highs Tuesday. The spread (new-highs minus new-lows) was minus-213 (It was -310 Monday.) This is a really bad number for an up-day!
The 10-day moving average of change in the spread rose to minus-20. In other words, over the last 10-days, on average; the spread has DECREASED by 20 each day.
Internals switched to neutral on the markets, but only because volume increased overall Tuesday, and as a result up-volume was unusually high.
NTSM
Tuesday, the NTSM long-term analysis remained SELL. PRICE (panic indicator) flashed sell Monday and the VIX indicator remained negative; VOLUME and SENTIMENT indicators remained neutral. All long-term indicators were worse Tuesday.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION
Tuesday I cut my investments from 50% invested to 30%
invested in stocks, all in an S&P 500 index. I am keeping 30% invested since it assures I will have gains if the market goes up. On the other hand even in a worst case scenario I would only lose 15% in the unlikely event the market were to be cut in half.
Whether this will turn out to be a good move remains to be seen. I would warn readers that I have underperformed the S&P 500 in recent years so this may be another false alarm. It is doubtful that this is “the big one” that John Hussman and others have been warning about for several years, but there do seem to be several issues.
Greece isn’t the only problem; Puerto Rico‘s Governor said that they cannot pay their $72-billion debt either. There is likely to be continued worry over other European countries catching the “contagion”. Further, until Tuesday, I was invested in Europe/Asia and small cap stocks. It may not be the best time to be holding Euro-Pacific stocks and small-cap stocks will be more volatile than large-cap if this does turn ugly.
THRIFT SAVINGS PLAN (TSP) MEMBERS
My TSP Allocation: 70%-G; 30%-C.
