Tuesday, June 14, 2016

Retail Sales … Business Inventories … Business Optimism … German 10-Year Bund Below Zero … Tax Receipts Below Recession Levels … Stock Market Analysis

RETAILS SALES (Bloomberg)
“Retail sales rose more than forecast in May, showing consumer spending will help boost economic growth in the second quarter. The 0.5 percent increase in purchases followed a 1.3 percent jump the previous month that was the biggest gain in a year…” Story at…
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-14/retail-sales-rise-more-than-forecast-as-u-s-consumers-spend
 
BUSINESS IINVENTORIES (Reuters)
“U.S. business inventories barely rose in April as sales recorded their biggest increase in more than two years, pointing to a slow pace of inventory accumulation that could weigh on economic growth in the second quarter. The Commerce Department said on Tuesday inventories gained 0.1 percent after a downwardly revised 0.3 percent rise in March.” Story at…
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-economy-inventories-idUSKCN0Z01Q4
 
SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM (NFIB)
“The Index of Small Business Optimism rose two tenths of a point in May to 93.8, a negligible increase showing no real enthusiasm for making capital outlays, increasing inventories, or expanding, according to the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB).
“The bottom line is that without an empowered small business sector, the economy will grow at a mediocre pace,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “Politicians in Washington credit any insignificant growth in the economy to their policies, but realistically, it’s the increase in the population. At this point, we should expect the same slow growth for the rest of the year.”  - NFIB. Press release available at…
http://www.nfib.com/surveys/small-business-economic-trends/
 
NEGATIVE 10-YEAR BUND RATES IN GERMANY (CNBC)
“The German 10-year bund yield's first-ever dip below zero on Tuesday is negative for markets because it reflects lack of confidence in European monetary policymakers, Pimco Global Strategic Advisor Richard Clarida said.” Story at…
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/14/germanys-10-year-bund-move-shows-lack-of-confidence-in-ecb-pimcos-clarida.html
My cmt: One wonders how much of the falling bond rates are due to possible Brexit.

STATE AND FEDERAL TAX RECEIPTS BELOW RECESSION LEVELS (Hussman Funds)